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Morning Coffee: NHL Draft Odds Shift Dramatically Following McKenzie's Final Rankings – TSN

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Shane Wright was the overwhelming favourite to be the number one overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft at FanDuel for over a month.

That changed late on Tuesday morning.

Shortly after Bob McKenzie’s Draft Ranking Show went live, FanDuel took their odds to be the first overall pick off the board.

At the time, Wright to be the first overall pick was -900.

When the draft odds came back online moments later, FanDuel had Wright at -210 to go number one.

Juraj Slafkovsky, the Slovakian winger who Bob McKenzie had No. 1 in his final draft ranking, went from +450 to +130 as the second choice to be the top pick at FanDuel.

Less than one week after the unprecedented sports betting experience that was the 2022 NBA Draft, we got a major move in the NHL Draft betting market that created a unique opportunity for anybody following it.

Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Wednesday June 29th, 2022.

Who Will Go No. 1 In 2022 NHL Draft?

It’s important to keep Bob McKenzie’s draft ranking decision in context.

McKenzie called his final draft ranking a “photo finish”, explaining the split between Slafkovsky and Wright among the NHL scouts that he spoke with, and noting that if he had talked with a separate set of scouts then they might have arrived at a different conclusion.

You can read his full article below.

As far as the betting market reaction, everything that we saw on Tuesday went as anticipated.

At the time that the final ranking was released, Slafkovsky was sitting at +450 to be the first overall pick at FanDuel.

That number represents an 18.2 per cent implied probability, which hardly seems like an accurate representation for a player that just earned the No. 1 ranking by the slimmest of margins.

Following Bob McKenzie’s Draft Ranking Show, FanDuel moved Slafkovsky to +130 to go number one.

Slafkovsky still wasn’t the favourite, but +130 represents a 43.5 per cent implied probability, which is much more in line with his actual chances to go first overall than his previous odds.

At the same time, Wright went from -900 to -210 at FanDuel.

The story didn’t end there, though.

Keep in mind, Wright had been the consensus top pick in McKenzie’s draft ranking for the entire season, which is a sentiment that was echoed by many different voices throughout the hockey community. 

Anybody that still felt Wright is the best bet to be the first overall pick but couldn’t bet him at -900 could now get him at -210. 

At the same time, if you bet on Slafkovsky to go first overall at +450 and wanted to hedge your position, you could now do so by buying back with Wright at -210.

As it turns out, the market adjusted again as we expected.

After crashing from -900 to -210, Wright’s odds to go first overall moved to -320, which is where they currently sit.

Slafkovsky’s odds ticked up from +130 to +140.

That’s where their odds currently sit at FanDuel this morning.

Meanwhile, no other player has shorter than +2000 odds to be the first overall pick.

Those numbers more accurately represent the split that McKenzie described among the scouts that he asked about the first overall pick.

With just eight days to go before the 2022 NHL Draft, it will be very interesting to see if that market moves again over the next week.

CFL Week 4 Early Lean

If you follow the @TSN_EDGE account on Twitter and you tailed our Early Leans for Week 3, then you couldn’t lose.

Davis Sanchez, Eric Cohen and I were on the BC Lions -3 versus the Toronto Argonauts.

They won that game by 41 points.

Christian Marin played the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on the money line ahead of a 26-12 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Milt Stegall took the 9.5 points with the Edmonton Elks in a 30-23 loss to the Calgary Stampeders.

On Tuesday, Davis revealed his Early Lean on Sportscentre, taking the Ottawa Redblacks +3 against the Lions.

It didn’t take long for that number to move at FanDuel.

Right now, I’m looking at BC -2.5 with the total at 47.5.

While it’s still early, I’ve had that game circled as the most highly anticipated showdown of the early season so far.

The Lions are rolling behind Nathan Rourke and an offence that has 44+ points in back-to-back wins, but they are travelling across the country on a short week with some notable injuries.

At the same time, the Redblacks are 0-2 following consecutive losses to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, but they held their own against the defending Grey Cup champions in both losses, and should benefit from home field and an extra week off to prepare following the bye.

As for my Early Lean, make sure you tune into our TSN EDGE Twitter Spaces this afternoon at 1:30 PM ET, where we will look to build off last week’s sweep and break down everything you need to know for the Week 4 games.

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Mountain West commissioner says she’s heartbroken over turmoil surrounding San Jose State volleyball

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LAS VEGAS (AP) — Mountain West Conference Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said Thursday the forfeitures that volleyball teams are willing to take to avoid playing San Jose State is “not what we celebrate in college athletics” and that she is heartbroken over what has transpired this season surrounding the Spartans and their opponents.

Four teams have canceled games against San Jose State: Boise State, Southern Utah, Utah State and Wyoming, with none of the schools explicitly saying why they were forfeiting.

A group of Nevada players issued a statement saying they will not take the floor when the Wolf Pack are scheduled to host the Spartans on Oct. 26. They cited their “right to safety and fair competition,” though their school reaffirmed Thursday that the match is still planned and that state law bars forfeiture “for reasons related to gender identity or expression.”

All those schools, except Southern Utah, are in the Mountain West. New Mexico, also in the MWC, went ahead with its home match on Thursday night, which was won by the Spartans, 3-1, the team’s first victory since Sept. 24.

“It breaks my heart because they’re human beings, young people, student-athletes on both sides of this issue that are getting a lot of national negative attention,” Nevarez said in an interview with The Associated Press at Mountain West basketball media days. “It just doesn’t feel right to me.”

Republican governors of Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming have made public statements in support of the cancellations, citing a need for fairness in women’s sports. Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee in this year’s presidential race, this week referenced an unidentified volleyball match when he was asked during a Fox News town hall about transgender athletes in women’s sports.

“I saw the slam, it was a slam. I never saw a ball hit so hard, hit the girl in the head,” Trump replied before he was asked what can be done. “You just ban it. The president bans it. You just don’t let it happen.”

After Trump’s comment, San Diego State issued a statement that said “it has been incorrectly reported that an San Diego State University student-athlete was hit in the face with a volleyball during match play with San Jose State University. The ball bounced off the shoulder of the student-athlete, and the athlete was uninjured and did not miss a play.”

San Jose State has not made any direct comments about the politicians’ “fairness” references, and Nevarez did not go into details.

“I’m learning a lot about the issue,” Nevarez said. “I don’t know a lot of the language yet or the science or the understanding nationally of how this issue plays out. The external influences are so far on either side. We have an election year. It’s political, so, yeah, it feels like a no-win based on all the external pressure.”

The cancellations could mean some teams will not qualify for the conference tournament Nov. 27-30 in Las Vegas, where the top six schools are slated to compete for the league championship.

“The student-athlete (in question) meets the eligibility standard, so if a team does not play them, it’s a forfeit, meaning they take a loss,” Nevarez said.

Ahead of the Oct. 26 match in Reno. Nevada released a statement acknowledging that “a majority of the Wolf Pack women’s volleyball team” had decided to forfeit against San Jose State. The school said only the university can take that step but any player who decides not to play would face no punishment.

___

AP college sports:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Senators looking to take learning experience from loss to Devils

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OTTAWA – Travis Green might not have liked the end result, but he’s counting on his team learning from the effort.

Green’s Ottawa Senators were handed a 3-1 loss by the New Jersey Devils Thursday night in a game that highlighted the importance of sticking with things.

“I thought both teams played pretty well,” said Green. “I thought we had a lot of the game that I liked, but I thought there’s a few moments where it got away. We got away from our game, and they stuck with their game a little longer.

“There’s always momentum back and forth for one team to create some chances. It’s a fine line between winning and losing in the league, especially when you’re playing, two good teams are playing.”

Jacob Markstrom’s 30 saves also played a part, with the Devils goaltender only getting beat with 65 seconds left in regulation as the Senators were on the power play with an empty net.

Brady Tkachuk tipped a Claude Giroux shot to spoil Markstrom’s shutout bid.

“Outstanding,” said Devils coach Sheldon Keefe of his goaltender. “Just terrible that he doesn’t get the shutout that he deserves in this one here.

“You feel for him when they make that (penalty) call. You can just kind of feel like it’s going to give them a little extra life. But he was outstanding for us, no question.”

The two teams were scoreless after the first period, where each had to fight for every opportunity. Noah Gregor rang a shot off the crossbar for the Senators, but otherwise, neither team was able to generate much offensively.

The Devils capitalized in the second as a power play expired with Erik Haula redirecting a Johnathan Kovacevic shot past Anton Forsberg, who made 32 saves.

Less than four minutes later, Nathan Bastian took advantage of a Giroux giveaway and beat Forsberg low blocker for his first of the season with the Devils short-handed.

“I liked our second period a lot,” Keefe said. “We took hold of the game and didn’t give up much, and when we did, I thought it was really from the perimeter, only a couple there.”

The Devils tightened up defensively in the third and were able to make it 3-0 when Paul Cotter was left alone in the slot.

“I think for stretches of the game we played the right way and kind of get in on the forecheck and play that way,” said Senators centre Nick Cousins. “It seems like when we get down a couple goals, we kind of change our game, which isn’t a recipe for success in this league.

“I think we’ve just got to keep doing the right things over and over again, even when it’s 2-0.”

With the Senators just four games in and still learning and adjusting to a new system, Green understands there will be growing pains along the way.

“We’re also trying to define our game,” he said. “I think we’re getting there. Both teams play fast. It was a fast skating game. There wasn’t a lot of room to move out there for either team.”

In his short tenure behind the Senators bench, Green has seen his team play very different styles of games and knows there will be nights like this along the way, but learning from them will be key.

“There’s going to be a lot of nights where you kind of got to earn everything you get,” admitted Green. “It’s not going to be freewheeling. Good teams don’t play freewheeling hockey.

“You learn when you win, you learn when you lose games that you don’t play well. You learn when you lose games that you had a pretty good game but you still lose and you’ve got to find a way. Good teams find a way to win those games.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadiens’ Matheson exits in loss to Kings, Hutson logs big minutes

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MONTREAL – The Montreal Canadiens fell 4-1 to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. They also lost their top minute-muncher in the process.

Matheson logged 7:35 in ice time during the first period but did not return for the second because of an upper-body injury. When or how Matheson sustained the injury was not clear. The Canadiens said he would be re-evaluated on Friday.

The game was tied at 1 before he exited, forcing the Canadiens to play with five defencemen for 40 minutes.

“Mike is one of the biggest parts of our D core, and I think losing him — he’s playing against top line, playing power play and we want him on the ice — definitely losing him was a big loss,” teammate David Savard said. “We got to figure out a way to get the two points, even if a player goes out.”

The 30-year-old Matheson of Pointe-Claire, Que., led all Canadiens defencemen with 62 points and a 25:33 average ice time last season.

With his absence, rookie sensation Lane Hutson played a whopping 30:05 in only his seventh NHL game. The next closest player? Kaiden Guhle at 23:09.

Head coach Martin St. Louis was impressed with how the 20-year-old Hutson handled the challenge.

“Lane doesn’t take a shift off,” head coach Martin St. Louis said. “I love the consistency of his compete level, and he drives possession. For a guy who played 30 minutes, I think he gave everything he could to try and help the team.

“I’m not surprised. I know it’s challenging at this level, losing Mike definitely made him play many minutes, chasing the game made him play many minutes, but I just love his compete level.”

Canadiens fans have been clamouring for Hutson — a five-foot-nine, 162-pound defenceman with world-class skill — to take Matheson’s spot on the No. 1 power play.

The Canadiens, however, went 0-for-3 with Hutson running the show after Matheson went down. In the first instance, Kirby Dach took a hooking penalty early in the man-advantage to end it. On the second, the Canadiens failed to generate any zone time.

The third came in the final minutes, but the Kings buried an empty-netter.

“It wasn’t a lack of opportunity, lots of ice time, lots of shifts,” Hutson said. “It was good, it was fun, but obviously you want to be on the other side of it, winning.

“Means a lot (to get that opportunity), but obviously, you want to get more out of that opportunity. It’s a lot of ice, and you want to keep taking steps in the right direction.”

‘IMMATURE EFFORT’

The Canadiens fell to a Kings team that had lost three straight games and was coming off a 6-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.

Under those circumstances, the Canadiens were brutally honest with themselves after the game.

“Definitely disappointed,” captain Nick Suzuki said. “It was an immature effort from us, especially with them playing yesterday and getting in late, so I think we gave them too much life, and let them feel comfortable in the game. It’s on us to be a lot better than that.”

Before the game, St. Louis stressed the need for a good first period against a fatigued Los Angeles side. That’s not what he saw Thursday night.

“I think we had 14 turnovers in the first period. It’s unacceptable. It gives them life,” he said. “Then you’re chasing the game for the second half of it — we didn’t play to our standard.

“I’m really disappointed. Really disappointed.”

BIG SAVE DAVE

Kings goalie David Rittich played his second game in two nights — an unusual occurrence in this day and age of the NHL. He made 25 saves after allowing four goals on 14 shots in Toronto.

“We always believe in him anyway, but he performed today pretty well and bounced back,” defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov said. “It’s probably like most important for himself, that’s huge, and for the team. He played outstanding today.”

LONG ROAD

The Kings are opening the season on a seven-game road trip because of renovations at Crypto.com Arena. They’ve collected six of a possible 10 points so far.

“Pretty much worse (than expected),” forward Phillip Danault said. “We’ve been on the road for three weeks … It’s good team-bonding, whether we should do it again I’m not sure, but it has turned out well let’s say with six points out of 10.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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