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Coronavirus spread slowing in Canada; death rate rises due to long-term care fatalities – Global News

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Canadian public health officials initially underestimated how deadly the coronavirus would be in long-term care homes and have revised their calculations in new modelling numbers shared on Tuesday.

But chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says the data also shows Canada is slowing the overall spread of the first wave of the virus.


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Coronavirus ‘travel bubble’ idea gains steam but wouldn’t work for Canada, U.S.

“We are making clear progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control,” she said in a briefing with journalists to explain the new modelling data.

[On April 9] Canada’s confirmed case count was doubling every three to five days. At this time, the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days.”

One factor in that, Tam said, is the fact that infected individuals are not infecting as many others.

When she briefed journalists on April 9, each infected person had spread the coronavirus to 2.19 other individuals, while the current transmission rate sees the virus spread to just over one other person.

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Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says goal of health measures to ensure each infected individual transmits the disease to less than one person


Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says goal of health measures to ensure each infected individual transmits the disease to less than one person

However, while the COVID-19 fatality rate was initially calculated as roughly 2.2 per cent, Tam said the rate has now been revised to 5.5 per cent in light of a spike in deaths in long-term care homes.

Overall, deaths in long-term care and seniors’ homes account for 79 per cent of the total deaths in the country, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).

Individuals over the age of 60 account for 95 per cent of total deaths, PHAC’s newest numbers said.


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Tam cautioned that the fatality rate could change again as the virus spread ebbs and flows.

“Until the epidemic is over, you actually don’t know the true case fatality rate,” she said.

“These are dynamic until you actually get to the bottom of the epidemic.”


READ MORE:
Nearly half of Canada’s COVID-19 deaths linked to long-term care facilities

Prior to the release of the data on Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cautioned that although the modelling shows the restrictions locking down the country are working, that doesn’t mean the danger has passed.

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“In many parts of the country, the curve has flattened,” Trudeau said during his daily news conference outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa.

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“But we’re not out of the woods yet.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says COVID-19 curve ‘has flattened’ in many parts of the country


Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says COVID-19 curve ‘has flattened’ in many parts of the country

PHAC updates short-term, but not long-term, projections

Health officials on Tuesday also provided a forecast for where things could be by May 5.

The new models suggest the country could see total deaths hit between 3,277 and 3,883 by next week, with 53,196 to 66,835 total confirmed cases.

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The update comes nearly three weeks after PHAC first released projections for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those projections — released April 9, based on the data that officials had at the time — laid out three possible long-term scenarios for how the pandemic might unfold in Canada based on strong, weak and no control measures for containing the virus.

Those first projections suggested that between 11,000 and 22,000 people could die from the virus in a “best-case scenario” where 2.5 to five per cent of the population is infected — but the new modelling data released on Tuesday did not alter those long-term projections.

“I think for our planning purposes, these three different scenarios are still useful at this moment in time,” Tam said.






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Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says Canadians must ‘plan to live’ with COVID-restrictions for some time


Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says Canadians must ‘plan to live’ with COVID-restrictions for some time

On April 9, federal officials stated that the path ahead depended heavily on Canadians’ collective actions.

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“The same holds true today,” Trudeau said on Tuesday.

Feds only have detailed info on 57 per cent of total cases in Canada

As of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, there are 49,804 confirmed cases of the coronavirus across the country, and 2,852 deaths linked to the virus so far.

However, as of Monday, PHAC only had received detailed data on approximately 57 per cent of the total number of cases reported to the agency, according to a daily epidemiological report.

The quality of the data shared by the provinces with PHAC has repeatedly been questioned by infectious disease and mathematical experts who point out it isn’t separated geographically and lacks detail distinguishing the dates of first symptoms from lab testing dates to the date a case was reported to health authorities — all of which can differ by weeks.


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‘Incomplete’ data for Canada hurts ability to model pandemic, scientists say

Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, admitted that acquiring complete data amid the pandemic is a challenge, but still maintained that the data the agency does currently have is “a good representation.”

“It is, to be honest … a bit of a weakness in terms of our collective system, the fact that at the federal level — our national level — we only get a certain percentage of the data,” Njoo said.

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“It’s not because of a lack of goodwill and that the provinces [and] territories don’t want to give us data, but there are some challenges — issues, infrastructure and so on.

“We’re all working together, I think, really well. And I think in the future, to be quite honest, those are things we need to look at in terms of how data’s managed, how data’s collected, transferred — even at local level to provincial level, and then to the federal level.”

The challenge increasingly confronting public health officials is satisfying a public hungry for clear information about how long their lives will be disrupted and what measures they should be taking to stay as safe as possible.

Ian Schnoor, president and founder of The Marquee Group — which is Canada’s leading data modelling firm — said that was evident in the briefing with Tam and Njoo.

“People were desperate and craving for more insight and understanding of what the future might look like,” he said of the repeated questioning by journalists for further explanations of the models.

“You could hear the frustration in their tone.”

Schnoor said there should be a modelling expert at the briefings who can convey technical details like how the data was prepared, what assumptions anchor them and how those assumptions translate into action.

But that isn’t Tam, he said, adding it isn’t her job to do mathematical modelling.

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“She’s the expert that can talk about public health measures that need to be put in place, she can talk about distancing and effective protocols that should be put in place and the way that the virus works and look for drugs and vaccines, but she was way out of her depth,” he said.

“Models need to be a communication tool and they’re not being used that way.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Mitchell throws two TD passes as Ticats earn important 37-21 home win over Redblacks

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HAMILTON – It remains faint but Bo Levi Mitchell and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats still have a playoff pulse.

Mitchell threw two touchdown passes as Hamilton defeated the Ottawa Redblacks 37-21 in the CFL’s annual Hall of Fame game Saturday afternoon. The Ticats (4-9) earned a second straight win to move to within six points of the third-place Toronto Argonauts (7-6) in the East Division.

Hamilton visits Toronto on Friday night.

“Obviously they’re (wins) huge now,” Mitchell said. “We didn’t do ourselves any favours by getting into this position and not being able to really control our own destiny.

“But right now, we need certain people to win at certain times. Our job is to go out there and try to win the next five, then the next three after that.”

Mitchell finished 20-of-27 passing for 299 yards and an interception. He entered weekend action leading the CFL in passing yards (3,383) and TD strikes (21).

Greg Bell’s 15-yard TD run at 11:30 of the fourth and two-point convert put Hamilton up 36-21 after backup Jeremiah Masoli led Ottawa on two scoring drives. Following a 13-yard TD strike to Andre Miller at 2:53, Masoli found Dominique Rhymes on a 10-yard touchdown pass at 7:43 before Khalan Laborn’s two-point convert cut Hamilton’s lead to 29-21.

“When you’re scoring from (15) yards out on a run play, that makes offence easy,” Mitchell said. “It’s one of those things when you get down there as a quarterback, it takes you sometimes five, eight, 10 plays and now it’s ‘OK, now we have to create some stuff and find something.’

“When you hand the ball off and you’re scoring from (15) yards, it makes the offence really easy.”

Ottawa (8-4-1) would have clinched a playoff spot with a victory.

Ottawa committed six turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles, once on downs) before an announced Tim Hortons Field gathering of 22,119. Lawrence Woods III also returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown at 11:51 of the first quarter that put Hamilton ahead 10-3.

“You’ve got to bring your best every single week and this wasn’t our best, all of us, from coaches to the players,” said Ottawa head coach Bob Dyce. “If you don’t play great for four quarters, I don’t care who you’re playing you’re not going to have a successful day.

“We should’ve made the tackle (on Woods), we had him wrapped up it’s that simple. Even though we didn’t make the play on that, there should’ve been extra bodies there to clean it up when he did break the tackle.”

Hamilton also tied the season series with Ottawa 1-1. The teams meet again at TD Place on Oct. 25.

“If we didn’t turn it over today I would’ve said we played really well offensively and that to me is what the biggest difference is,” said Hamilton head coach Scott Milanovich. “Even the turnovers today (interception, fumble), at least they were in their end and we weren’t giving them a short field.

“The biggest play of the game was Woodsie’s return. It got us jump-started, gave us the lead and we were kind of off after that.”

Ottawa starter Dru Brown was 17-of-27 passing for 164 yards and an interception. Masoli entered late in the third and finished 13-of-19 passing for 183 yards with two TDs and two interceptions, but Dyce said Brown will start next weekend against Montreal (10-2-1), which earned a 19-19 tie Saturday night with Calgary (4-8-1).

The Canadian Football Hall of Fame’s ’24 class of S.J. Green, Chad Owens, Weston Dressler, Vince Goldsmith and Vince Coleman, along with builders Ray Jauch and Ed Laverty (posthumously), was honoured at halftime. All were enshrined Friday night.

Steven Dunbar Jr. and Ante Litre had Hamilton’s other touchdowns. Marc Liegghio kicked two field goals, three converts and two singles.

Ottawa’s Lewis Ward booted two field goals and a convert.

Mitchell culminated a five-play, 96-yard march with a 20-yard TD pass to Litre at 13:34 of the third. It followed Jonathan Moxey’s interception.

Liegghio’s single at 7:05 of the third put Hamilton up 22-6.

Mitchell’s 54-yard TD strike to Dunbar at 14:18 of the second staked Hamilton to its 21-6 halftime lead. The advantage was well-deserved as the Ticats had more first downs (12-six), net offensive yards (260-144) and scored on both offence and special teams.

Mitchell was 14-of-20 passing for 210 yards and a TD, but his interception cost Hamilton at least a field-goal attempt. Dunbar had five receptions for 113 yards and the touchdown.

Brown completed 13-of-21 passes for 127 yards.

Liegghio’s missed 47-yard attempt went for the single at 12:45 to put Hamilton ahead 14-6. It followed a Kiondre Smith catch that was ruled incomplete and at the very least cost the Ticats a first down that would’ve kept the drive alive.

Ward’s 30-yard kick at 9:15 had pulled Ottawa to within 13-6.

Liegghio’s 19-yard field goal at 5:13 pushed Hamilton’s lead to 13-3. It followed the defence stopping Ottawa’s Dustin Crum on third-and-one, giving the Ticats possession at the Redblacks 40.

Liegghio’s 47-yard field goal opened the scoring at 2:42 before Ward tied in with a 24-yard boot at 8:44.

UP NEXT

Redblacks: Host the Montreal Alouettes (10-2-1) next Saturday, Sept. 21.

Tiger-Cats: Visit the Toronto Argonauts (7-6) on Friday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.



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Toronto FC downs Austin FC to pick up three much-needed points in MLS playoff push

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TORONTO – Needing three points to keep their playoff push alive, Toronto FC’s Jonathan Osorio and Deandre Kerr stepped up with first-half goals against Austin FC on Saturday with goalkeeper Sean Johnson doing his bit at the other end.

A 76th-minute goal by Austin’s Owen Wolff made for a nervy ending but TFC hung on for a 2-1 win.

While Toronto (11-15-3) remains on the Major League Soccer playoff bubble in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (the eighth- and ninth-place teams in each conference square off in a wild-card playoff with the winner facing the top seed in the conference), other results went their way.

Seventh-place Charlotte, 10th-place Atlanta and 11th-place Philadelphia all lost while ninth-place D.C. United tied.

Toronto midfielder Alonso Coello called it “a game we had to win.”

“It’s a big win … To see that fight tonight was important,” added coach John Herdman.

Austin (9-12-7) came into the game in 11th place in the West, two points below ninth-place Minnesota. The Texas side has won just one of its last six league games (1-4-1).

Austin outshot Toronto 7-6 (6-2 edge in shots on target) in the first half but found itself trailing 2-0 at the break as Toronto took advantage of its chances and the visitors didn’t in their first-ever visit to BMO Field, before an announced crowd of 25,538.

Toronto had a dream start, catching Austin on the counterattack in the seventh minute. A sliding Austin player dispossessed an onrushing Kerr, who had been set free by a long ball from Coello, but the ball bounced to Osorio, who beat goalkeeper Brad Stuver with a rising shot.

It was the Toronto captain’s second goal of the season in league play and his 65th for TFC in all competitions. Only Sebastian Giovinco (83) and Jozy Altidore (79) scored more in Toronto colours.

TFC went ahead on another counterattack in the 30th minute after an Austin giveaway. Osorio found Richie Laryea outpacing his marker and the wingback unselfishly sent a perfect low cross across goal for Kerr to knock home for his third of the season.

Wolff, the son of Austin head coach Josh Wolff, made it interesting with his late strike. The 19-year-old U.S. youth international, controlling a long ball, beat defender Raoul Petretta and then waited out Johnson before slotting it home for his first of the season.

Toronto survived a nervy six minutes of stoppage time as Austin pressed for the equalizer. Austin outshot Toronto 14-9 (8-3 in shots on target) and had 52.5 per cent possession.

The win evened Toronto’s home record at 7-7-0, while Austin slipped to 3-8-3 on the road.

It was a costly evening for Austin with defender Brendan Hines-Ike, midfielder Jhojan Valencia and star attacker Sebastian Driussi allpicking up cautions to miss Wednesday’s game with Los Angeles FC due to yellow-card accumulation.

Toronto defender Shane O’Neill will miss Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus for the same reason. Toronto could be short mid-week, too. The hope is veteran centre back Kevin Long, who missed Saturday’s game after tweaking his hamstring in training, will be good to go.

Toronto has five games remaining, including three more at home as it looks to return to the post-season for the first time since 2020 when it lost to Nashville after extra time at the first hurdle.

It is a challenging road.

TFC hosts Columbus, the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami while playing away at the Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire. All but Chicago are in playoff positions.

The only previous meeting between Toronto and Austin was in May 2023, when Zardes scored a 91st-minute winner to give Austin a 1-0 win over visiting Toronto, which was then mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. That loss prompted a post-game outburst from Italian star Federico Bernardeschi about TFC’s drab play.

Then-coach Bob Bradley benched Bernardeschi for the next game.

Current coach John Herdman made four changes to his starting 11 with Bernardeschi and Osorio returning from suspension and Coello and Kerr also slotting in. Coello, who had missed the last eight league games with a hamstring injury, was impressive in his 59-minute return.

Both Toronto and Austin suffered home losses last time out going into the international break. Toronto was beaten 3-1 by D.C. United while Austin lost 1-0 to Vancouver.

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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CF Montreal finds its groove with 2-1 win over Charlotte

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MONTREAL – CF Montreal is back in the win column after securing a 2-1 Major League Soccer win over Charlotte FC on Saturday night at Stade Saputo.

Montreal’s form had suffered of late, with just one win in MLS since July, but Laurent Courtois’ squad showed a level of poise and control over the tempo of the game that had not been seen since the beginning of the season.

“What we’ve changed in the last few weeks or months in terms of our methodology or coaching, is nothing. We did the exact thing, We had the exact same words, and we expressed them the exact same way,” said Courtois. “Today, everything just clicked.”

Caden Clark scored for the first time as a Montreal (7-12-9) player in the 23rd minute, in addition to Bryce Duke’s goal three minutes later that ended up being the winner, while Tim Ream found the back of the net for Charlotte (10-10-8).

Montreal had the first major scoring chance of the match after 15 minutes of play. With a free kick roughly 25 metres away from goal, Gabriele Corbo sent a near-perfect shot smashing off the crossbar.

Montreal would continue to dictate the tempo in the opening phase, finding first blood just seven minutes later.

Following a phenomenal triple-save from Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, the ball fell to Clark who volleyed the ball into the wide-open net, picking up his first goal for the club.

“I think you don’t lose the feeling (of scoring), everything happens for a reason, you just can’t lose yourself in the chaos,” said Clark, who had missed a full season due to injury and was briefly without a club, but was grateful for Courtois’ confidence in him.

“(To have a coach’s confidence) is huge and is something I’ve had both ends of so you just can’t take advantage of that in the wrong way. I’m going to keep my discipline with the game plan and keep my head right.”

With momentum completely on their side, the home side doubled the lead just three minutes later. Montreal continued to build up play on the left flank and found a streaking Raheem Edwards in behind the defence who cut the ball back to Duke, sending the Stade Saputo crowd into a frenzy.

Just after the half-hour mark, Charlotte pulled one back through a set piece — something Montreal has struggled defending all season — as Ream rose above everyone at the back post to score his first with his new club.

The second half began in a similar fashion to the end of the first, with Charlotte pressing high up the pitch and forcing several turnovers in dangerous areas. After surviving the pressure, Montreal began to regain control of the game near the hour mark, enjoying the lion’s share of the possession while Charlotte looked to hit back on the counterattack.

“I think when we conceded that goal we were like ‘here we go again.’ 2-1 is a tough lead before halftime … and at the beginning of the half we kind of shot ourselves in the foot and they pressed a bit more, they moved a bit more forward and that opened some gaps,” said captain Samuel Piette.

“I was happy with that, it shows character. At the end of the day, we just wanted the three points and that’s what we got.”

As the game progressed, Charlotte pushed harder to find an equalizer but to no avail. With only one shot on target conceded, the second-worst defence in the league put up an impressive front and confidently rebuffed every single Charlotte attack.

“I’m a big fan of the back five’s performance in their discipline, competitiveness, and synchronization with balls in behind,” said Courtois.

“We can’t explain sometimes in a game it’s not there, they’re capable and today they showed it. Let’s see tomorrow.”

UP NEXT

Both teams are back in action on Sept. 18 away from home as Montreal will look to avenge a 5-0 rout against the New England Revolution while Charlotte visits Orlando City SC.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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