Toronto’s mayoral race has narrowed to a contest between incumbent Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford, with advance voting finished and election day set for Monday, Oct. 26.
Advance voting ran from Tuesday, Oct. 6, to Sunday, Oct. 11, from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. at 50 locations, two in each of the city’s 25 wards, according to the City of Toronto. Search interest in the advance polls and in Chow was among the top trending topics in Canada on Tuesday, according to Google Trends.
The most recent public survey, a Nanos Polling poll conducted exclusively for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, put Chow at 52.4 per cent support among decided voters and Bradford at 42.6 per cent. Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander had four per cent, and other candidates had about one per cent. Another 22 per cent of all respondents were undecided.
Nanos surveyed 755 Toronto residents online and by telephone from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. It was published Oct. 6.
Alexander announced the morning the poll was released that he was suspending his campaign. Nik Nanos, the firm’s chief data scientist, said the race is “fundamentally a two-way race.”
Nanos said Bradford is “the only person today that can stop Olivia Chow.” He described the final stretch as “ward by ward, block by block, bare-knuckle politics.”
The poll showed Chow leading among women, at 60.2 per cent to 35.2 per cent for Bradford, while Bradford led among men, at 50.7 per cent to 44 per cent. Chow led in every age group, including 59.2 per cent among voters aged 18 to 34. Her lead over Bradford among voters aged 35 to 54 was 2.8 points, within the margin of error.
Nanos said Scarborough could still prove a key battleground. Chow led there, but 32 per cent of respondents in the area were undecided. Among Chow supporters, 53.2 per cent said they will definitely vote, compared with 43.1 per cent of Bradford supporters.
Other recent polls have shown a range of results. Reports from NOW Toronto and CBC News have cited surveys with Chow ahead by anywhere from four to 17 points, and one pollster reported her lead tightening in the final month of the campaign. Canada News Media has not independently verified those surveys.
A total of 53 mayoral candidates have been certified by the City Clerk, which has led to concern about ballot confusion. Local media have reported that a candidate named Braeden Chow, who has said he is related to the mayor, is on the ballot. The mayor’s office has not been reported as confirming any family link, and a Toronto media report said the claim is not accurate.
To vote on election day, residents must be Canadian citizens, at least 18 years old, and either live in Toronto or own or rent property in the city. Voters must cast a ballot in the ward where they live and bring identification showing their name and Toronto address. The city said photo ID is not necessary. A voter information card is not required and is not accepted as ID.
Polls on election day are open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Via CP24 and CTV News Toronto (Nanos Polling) and the City of Toronto.
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