Turek leads Hinson 48-45 in new Iowa Senate poll

Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson 48 per cent to 45 per cent among likely voters in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, according to a Marist Poll released Oct. 15, 16 days before the Nov. 3 election.

The three-point gap is smaller than the poll’s margin of error for likely voters, which is plus or minus 6.6 percentage points, so the race is a statistical tie. Among all registered voters, Turek’s lead is seven points. In the governor’s race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 52 per cent to 45 per cent among likely voters.

Marist interviewed 1,100 Iowa adults who are registered voters from Oct. 8 to 11 by live telephone, text and online. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for registered voters.

Independents favoured Turek 51 per cent to 31 per cent, Marist said. The pollster also found a 29-point gender gap in the Senate race.

Despite trailing among likely voters, Hinson is the more common pick to win. Marist said 59 per cent of respondents think she will be elected. On the governor’s race, 50 per cent expect Sand to win and 45 per cent expect Lahn to.

The poll found Republicans ahead on the generic U.S. House ballot, 50 per cent to 47 per cent among likely voters. Among likely voters, 44 per cent approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance and 53 per cent disapprove. On Trump’s influence on their vote for Congress, 44 per cent said he is not much of a factor, 21 per cent said their vote is for him and more than one in three said it is against him.

Personal finances are also a concern. Forty-two per cent of likely voters said their finances are worse than a year ago, 36 per cent said about the same and 20 per cent said better, Marist said.

Other polls this year have also shown a close race. A Fox News poll of 1,003 registered voters, conducted June 23 to 27, found Turek ahead 50 per cent to 46 per cent, with a margin of error of plus or minus three points. Pollster Daron Shaw, a Republican who helped conduct it, said Iowa “has turned red during the last decade, but these data suggest a reversion to swing status.” An Emerson College poll of 712 likely voters, conducted Aug. 2 to 4, had Hinson ahead 47.5 per cent to 45 per cent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points, CBS 2 Iowa reported.

Trade with Canada is part of the backdrop. On Feb. 11, the U.S. House voted 219-211 to repeal Trump’s tariffs on Canada, with six Republicans joining nearly all Democrats, Iowa Public Radio reported. All four of Iowa’s House members, all Republicans, voted against the resolution. Hinson said she opposed it because she believes Trump will “level the playing field” on trade.

Iowa farm groups have pressed Washington to keep trade open with its North American partners. About 40 per cent of Iowa’s goods exports go to Canada and Mexico, according to the Brookings Institution figures cited by Iowa Public Radio in June. Julie Kenney, chief executive of the Agribusiness Association of Iowa, said the state gets “over 85% of our potash from Canada.”

Canada has also featured in the wider midterm campaign. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra warned Canada to stay out of the U.S. midterms, and a Michigan Senate hopeful has broken with Trump on Canada tariffs. Separately, Texas Democrat James Talarico reported a record Senate fundraising haul for the third quarter.

Campaigns in Iowa have traded sharp lines in recent weeks. Hinson spokesman Billy Fuerst said in August that the more Iowans learn about Turek, “the less they like him.” Turek spokeswoman Maggie Luddy said Turek “will always do what’s best for Iowa and Iowans.”

Voters in Iowa go to the polls Nov. 3.

If you find reporting like this useful, consider supporting Canada News Media, an independent Canadian newsroom with no corporate parent.