Will the Bank of Canada Raise Interest Rates on Oct. 28?

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate has been 2.25 per cent since Oct. 29, 2025, but several big banks now expect a quarter-point increase to 2.5 per cent on Oct. 28. Statistics Canada reported on Oct. 19 that annual inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in September, driven by a 27.8 per cent jump in gasoline prices, while the core measures CPI-trim and CPI-median eased to 1.8 and 1.9 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said on Oct. 17 that the bank’s inflation outlook would be “quite a bit higher” than its July forecast. The Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, Desjardins and RBC Dominion Securities forecast a hike, while TD Economics and RBC Economics expect a hold, and Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. We explain the case on each side and what a quarter-point move would mean for variable-rate mortgages, lines of credit and savings. Forecasts and market odds can change before the 9:45 a.m. Eastern announcement.

Sources: Bank of Canada, Sept. 2, 2026 decision, policy interest rate and Valet CPI series; Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (The Daily, Oct. 19, 2026) and Labour Force Survey, September 2026 (Oct. 9, 2026); swap-market odds, Macklem’s remarks and forecasts as reported by The Canadian Press, CBC News, The Globe and Mail and Mortgage Professional America. Charts drawn by Canada News Media from these figures. Mortgage, line of credit and savings figures are our own calculations for illustration only. Photos from Wikimedia Commons, credited in the video.

Read our coverage: Bank of Canada rate decision Oct. 28, 2026: what to expect; Several big banks now see Bank of Canada hike on Oct. 28; Inflation rate by province in Canada, Sept. 2026; Canada loses 68,000 jobs in September, rate rises to 6.5%.