Canada winter forecast 2026-27: what to expect by region

Canada’s 2026-27 winter is forecast to start milder than normal almost everywhere, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s seasonal outlook and The Weather Network said, as a strong El Niño builds in the Pacific. ECCC’s model favours above-normal temperatures from November to January in nearly every region. Cold snaps and storms are still expected.

Updated Oct. 22, 2026. Seasonal forecasts are probabilities, not guarantees, and will be revised. The Weather Network has not issued its full winter forecast; this guide uses its October preview articles.

The main driver is El Niño. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said in its Oct. 8 ENSO discussion that El Niño “continues to strengthen” and that a strong to very strong event is likely through January to March 2027. Environment and Climate Change Canada said El Niño often brings milder weather to western, northwestern and central Canada, while eastern Canada usually feels lesser effects.

Key facts: Canada’s winter outlook 2026-27

What is Environment Canada’s winter forecast for 2026-27?

ECCC publishes probabilistic seasonal maps from its Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. The latest temperature and precipitation maps, produced Sept. 30, 2026, show the chance of each region landing above, near or below its 1991 to 2020 normal.

For November, December and January, the maps favour above-normal temperatures across virtually the whole country. The highest probabilities sit over Ontario, Quebec, Labrador and the Hudson Bay region, with strong odds along the B.C. coast. Probabilities are lower, though still tilted warm, over the Prairies and parts of the High Arctic.

The precipitation signal is weaker. The maps lean toward below-normal precipitation over parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan and around Hudson Bay, and toward above-normal precipitation along parts of the B.C. coast and in the Arctic islands. Much of the rest of the country shows no strong signal. For January to March 2027, the temperature map still favours above-normal temperatures nearly everywhere, most strongly in B.C., northern Quebec and Labrador.

ECCC refreshes these maps monthly. In 2023 and 2025 it presented a public winter seasonal outlook in December; it has not announced a 2026 briefing.

Has The Weather Network released its 2026-27 winter forecast?

Not yet. As of Oct. 22, The Weather Network had published preview, or “sneak peek,” articles for the West and the East, plus a snowfall preview, but not its full winter forecast, and it had not said when that would come. Its September fall forecast said El Niño “will likely delay the onset of persistent winter conditions.”

What does El Niño mean for winter in Canada?

El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific that shifts weather patterns. The Weather Network’s meteorologists said it tends to push the storm track south of the border and limit how often Arctic air plunges into Canada. NOAA put Niño-3.4, the key ocean index, at 2.1 degrees above average in early October and gave a 70 per cent chance that the November to January season exceeds 2.5 degrees on its relative index, which would be historically strong. NOAA’s next update is Nov. 12.

Strong El Niño winters still bring cold spells. The Weather Network said a weaker-than-normal polar vortex could still allow brief but impactful cold snaps, and that a faster fade of El Niño could mean a more wintry end to the season.

What is the winter forecast by region?

B.C.

ECCC’s maps favour a mild early winter, with some of the country’s strongest warm odds along the coast. The Weather Network said in its Oct. 20 western preview that above-normal wet weather on the U.S. West Coast could at times reach southern B.C., and that ski hills may face a shaky start because alpine snow depends on high elevations staying below freezing.

The Prairies

The Weather Network said warmer-than-normal temperatures should dominate more often than not, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with winter storms less frequent than usual. It said snowfall could still be near normal in late fall and early winter. ECCC’s maps lean warm and lean dry over parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Ontario

The Weather Network’s Oct. 14 eastern preview said it had “high confidence” in a very mild and potentially record-breaking December, with the best chance over Ontario and southern Quebec. It said snow may be more localized, with lake-effect bursts when Arctic air arrives, and that cold outbreaks may become more frequent in the second half of winter.

Quebec

Southern Quebec shares Ontario’s strong warm signal in both ECCC’s maps and The Weather Network’s preview. The network said storms shifting north could still bring impactful weather if they meet cold air, and that ski areas may struggle early.

Atlantic Canada

The Weather Network said storms tracking up the U.S. East Coast favour repeated active weather in Atlantic Canada, bringing a mix of wintry precipitation rather than mainly cold and snow. ECCC’s maps favour above-normal temperatures in the region.

The North

ECCC’s maps favour above-normal temperatures across most of Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, with weaker odds in parts of the High Arctic and a lean toward below-normal precipitation around Hudson Bay. The Weather Network’s fall forecast said Hudson Bay freeze-up is likely to be delayed. Neither source has issued a detailed territorial winter forecast.

Will there be less snow this winter?

The Weather Network said in an Oct. 9 snowfall preview that a suppressed storm track and warmer temperatures “should average out to below-average snowfall throughout Canada,” though alpine areas may come close to normal and one major storm can shape a season. ECCC does not issue a seasonal snowfall map.

For more, read our report on how a strong El Niño points to a mild start to winter in the West, our guide on how to de-ice a driveway and walkway, and when daylight saving time ends Nov. 1.

Frequently asked questions about Canada’s 2026-27 winter

Will winter 2026-27 be mild in Canada?

The early signals point that way. ECCC’s seasonal maps favour above-normal temperatures across nearly all of Canada from November to January, and The Weather Network expects a mild start. Both say cold snaps and storms remain possible.

Is El Niño happening in 2026?

Yes. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had an El Niño Advisory in effect on Oct. 8, 2026, and said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely to last through January to March 2027.

When will The Weather Network release its winter forecast?

It has not announced a date. As of Oct. 22, it had published western, eastern and snowfall preview articles in October, but not its full 2026-27 winter forecast.

Will Toronto have a snowy winter?

The Weather Network said snow in Ontario may be patchy and localized, with a very mild December likely. ECCC’s maps favour above-normal temperatures for southern Ontario. Neither source gives a city snowfall total.

Will the Prairies have a cold winter?

The Weather Network said warmer-than-normal temperatures should dominate more often than not, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with fewer storms. It warned short, impactful cold snaps are still possible.

When is the next El Niño update?

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said its next ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled for Nov. 12, 2026. ECCC updates its seasonal maps monthly.

Sources: Environment and Climate Change Canada, seasonal forecasts; ECCC, El Niño; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO discussion, Oct. 8, 2026; The Weather Network, western preview, Oct. 20, eastern preview, Oct. 14, snowfall preview, Oct. 9, fall forecast, Sept. 9.

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