Strong El Niño points to a mild start to winter in the West

A strong El Niño is expected to bring a warmer-than-normal start to winter across Western Canada, with fewer winter storms on the Prairies, The Weather Network said Tuesday.

The network’s forecast centre described a record, or “super,” El Niño that is likely headed toward historic heights in the next few months. It did not give a numeric strength or a peak date.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures should dominate more often than not, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the forecast said. Winter will show up at times, but it “won’t lock in” early in the season. A weaker-than-normal polar vortex could still allow quick shots of impactful cold.

The pattern is less favourable for storms on the Prairies, so winter systems should be less frequent than usual. Snowfall is still expected to be near normal in late fall and early winter, especially at high elevations and across the Prairies. The forecast said wet weather that is expected to be above normal on the U.S. West Coast and Southwest could at times reach southern British Columbia.

For ski resorts, the outlook is less certain. The network said the season could have a shaky start, and many resorts will likely see negative effects. Alpine areas could still get snow, but that depends on high elevations staying below freezing, and traditionally colder regions can get heavy snow even in a mild winter.

The forecast said a faster fade of El Niño could mean a more wintry end to the season. Forecasters will be watching when the event peaks and begins to weaken.

CTV News Calgary reported on Sept. 3 that the incoming super El Niño is expected to bring a moderate winter and a dry spring to Alberta. The Weather Network article included files from meteorologist Rachel Modestino.

Searches about the winter outlook for Western Canada were trending in Canada on Google on Wednesday. The forecast is seasonal and probabilistic, and individual storms and cold snaps can still occur in any winter.

If you find reporting like this useful, consider supporting Canada News Media, an independent Canadian newsroom with no corporate parent.

Source: The Weather Network, Oct. 20, 2026; CTV News Calgary, Sept. 3, 2026.