Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed to the New York Times that his government studied the risk of the United States launching military action against Canada under President Donald Trump, in an interview published Wednesday and updated Thursday.
Carney described the scenario as an “extreme tail risk,” a term used in risk management for an outcome that is unlikely but would carry severe consequences if it happened, the New York Times reported. He told the newspaper it “would be irresponsible not to” examine the possibility, calling the exercise “just risk management” rather than a sign that conflict is expected.
The New York Times reported that Carney paused for several seconds before answering the question, and that he did not use the word “invasion” himself, a term the newspaper applied in its own framing of the story. He declined to detail what preparatory steps Canada has taken, though he said the country is working to reduce its reliance on American military and technological systems, including Starlink, so that Canada can “be a better partner for the U.S. because of what we are doing,” CP24 reported.
Defence Minister David McGuinty defended the prime minister’s comments Thursday, saying this kind of scenario planning is routine for any government. “It is normal. All militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios,” McGuinty said, according to BNN Bloomberg. He did not say which scenarios had been examined.
Reaction split along partisan lines. Former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay, who has held both the defence and foreign affairs portfolios, called Carney’s remarks counterproductive. He argued they shift the tone of the Canada-U.S. relationship “from the realm of retaliation to provocation” at a sensitive point in tariff negotiations, and said the government should instead stay focused on getting tariffs removed, BNN Bloomberg reported.
Other political figures defended the prime minister’s comments. Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair called the risk analysis routine, noting Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the 51st state. Commentator Eric Ham said the planning was prudent given recent U.S. military action in Venezuela and ongoing tension over Greenland. Federal Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon said simply that “it’s prudent to run any scenario.”
The comments land as Canada reviews its planned purchase of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets and explores alternatives, including Sweden’s Gripen, part of a broader push by Ottawa to diversify away from American defence suppliers, according to BNN Bloomberg.
Carney was also asked in the same interview about whether he intends to seek a second term as prime minister. “It’s too early to start asking,” he said.
The exchange is the latest sign of strain in Canada-U.S. relations after months of tariff disputes and repeated public jabs from Trump, including his recent comment that Canada is “destroying itself.” Carney’s government has responded by pursuing new trade and security partnerships with Europe and other allies while continuing to push for a resolution to the tariff dispute with Washington.
