WCS discount hits US$25.50, widest gap since 2023

Western Canadian Select (WCS), the benchmark for Alberta heavy crude, traded at a US$25.50 per barrel discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Oct. 13, the widest gap since 2023 and more than US$10 wider than a month earlier.

WCS for November delivery at Hardisty, Alta., settled US$25.50 below WTI, brokerage CalRock said in pricing reported by Reuters and carried by the BOE Report. The discount was US$25.55 on Oct. 9.

WTI settled at US$91.85 a barrel on Oct. 9, EnergyNow reported. That puts WCS at roughly US$66.30 a barrel, a figure calculated from the two quotes rather than a verified physical transaction price.

The wide gap means Alberta producers are collecting far less per barrel than the headline oil price suggests, even as global crude trades above US$90.

Reuters attributed the widening to high ocean freight rates that have sharply cut export demand for crude in the Americas, and to easing prices for comparable heavy grades from Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia. EnergyNow also pointed to weak U.S. Gulf Coast fuel-oil demand and difficulty moving Canadian heavy crude overseas.

Hashtag Investing, summarizing Reuters and Argus Media reporting, said WCS has fallen by more than US$10 a barrel over six weeks. It said a supertanker from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia now costs more than US$80 million, versus US$10 million to US$15 million at the start of 2026.

The same report said U.S. refinery utilization has averaged about 93.5 per cent this year, the highest in 28 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heavy crude can overwhelm specific units such as cokers before overall refinery capacity is reached, it said.

Export pipelines are not providing relief. Reuters reported Canada’s main export lines are essentially full, and Alberta output hit a record 4.1 million barrels a day in the first half of 2026, about three per cent above a year earlier, according to ATB Cormark. The Canada Energy Regulator approved a Trans Mountain tolls settlement last month that allows up to 90 per cent of capacity to be contracted.

For the province, the gap matters directly. Alberta’s first-quarter fiscal update assumed an average light-heavy differential of US$14.80 a barrel and about $23 billion in non-renewable resource revenue, or 27 per cent of expected revenue, Hashtag Investing reported. It also cited the 2026 budget’s sensitivity analysis, which estimates that a sustained US$1 widening cuts annual revenue by about $670 million, all else equal.

Canada News Media’s simple extrapolation, not a government forecast, is that a gap about US$10.70 wider than the budget assumption would be worth roughly $7 billion a year if it persisted for a full year. The differential has been wider for only a few weeks, and the province has not said whether it will revise its forecast.

Relief may depend on freight and refinery maintenance easing, and on new capacity. Prime Minister Mark Carney designated the proposed Pacific Link pipeline, which would add about one million barrels a day of west-coast export capacity, a project of national interest on Oct. 1. A federal review is targeted for completion by September 2027, and the line is not yet operating.

The figures are market quotes and secondary reporting, and will move with daily trading.

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