B.C. election polls show tight NDP-Conservative race

British Columbians vote Saturday in a provincial election that the final public polls describe as close, with the B.C. Conservatives holding a narrow lead over Premier David Eby’s NDP, according to surveys released in the past two weeks.

The most recent poll, released Oct. 19 by the Angus Reid Institute, put the Conservatives at 46 per cent and the NDP at 43 per cent among decided voters. The B.C. Greens were at eight per cent. The institute surveyed 793 randomly selected B.C. adults and gave a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Angus Reid described the contest as a “statistical tie” because the three-point gap sits within that margin. The institute said the NDP has recovered some support and that the race is narrowing. It also said the incumbent NDP face a tougher task in securing support and turnout.

The poll found Conservative supporters were the most firmly committed. Angus Reid said 73 per cent of Conservative voters described themselves as locked in, compared with 54 per cent of NDP voters and 41 per cent of Green voters. On the question of who would make the best premier, Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson was named by 36 per cent, Eby by 34 per cent and 30 per cent chose neither.

An earlier survey by Ipsos, conducted Oct. 7 to 11 with 1,356 B.C. adults, showed a wider Conservative lead. It found the Conservatives at 43 per cent, the NDP at 38 per cent and the Greens at 11 per cent among decided voters. Ipsos reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the overall sample. Green Leader Emily Lowan is also on the ballot trail for her party.

Taken together, the two polls show the Conservatives ahead in each, but with the gap shrinking in the later survey. Pollsters caution that a lead inside the margin of error does not show which party is actually ahead, and that polls measure opinion on the days people were surveyed, not on election day.

Turnout is expected to matter. Canada News Media reported Thursday that advance voting dropped compared with the previous election, and in Greater Victoria, 100,242 advance ballots were cast.

The search interest in the polls reflects how close the race looks heading into the final day. Results are expected after polls close Saturday night, and Canada News Media will publish them once they are confirmed by Elections B.C. and reputable news organizations.

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Sources: Angus Reid Institute poll released Oct. 19, 2026; Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 7 to 11, 2026.