EU leaves Ukraine’s €70 billion 2027 gap unfilled

European Union leaders ended their Brussels summit on Oct. 16 without agreeing how to cover a roughly €70-billion (about US$78.5 billion) shortfall in Ukraine’s 2027 funding, instead asking the European Commission to come back with proposals.

The gap matters because Ukraine already depends on the EU for about three-quarters of its financial support, according to the bloc’s ambassador to Kyiv, Katarína Mathernová, as reported by the Rio Times. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told leaders the war will cost his country €155 billion next year.

Zelenskyy asked the 27 leaders for at least €70 billion in additional help for defence, weapons purchases and economic support. “This is a realistic amount. And I ask you to find this support,” he said, according to the Ukrainian outlet UNN. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged the €70-billion shortfall, according to the Brussels policy site To Brief.

Leaders approved no new money, no new loan and no decision on frozen Russian assets, To Brief reported. They tasked the Commission with developing options and called for an updated assessment from the Commission and the International Monetary Fund. European Council President António Costa set no deadline, the site said. The Rio Times reported that the Commission’s options paper could appear before the end of 2026.

The €70 billion is Kyiv’s own estimate, and the review could change it. Ukraine’s cabinet breaks it into about €30 billion the state budget must raise from foreign lenders and donors, and about €40 billion in defence needs outside the budget, according to To Brief.

The money would come on top of the EU’s existing €90-billion Ukraine Support Loan, which covers 2026 and 2027 and is funded by borrowing on capital markets. The Commission paid out €2.86 billion from it on Oct. 14 for drones, air defence and ammunition, To Brief reported.

Two main routes are under discussion. The first is a new common EU loan. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Reuters it is the probable answer and said he hopes for a decision before year-end, according to To Brief. Any such loan would need governments willing to guarantee it. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has said Prague will not guarantee new loans to Ukraine.

The second is using immobilised Russian central-bank assets, which the Rio Times put at about €210 billion under EU jurisdiction, citing the Italian Institute for International Affairs. Most are held at Euroclear, a securities depository in Brussels. The EU already uses the income from those assets, but not the principal, for Ukraine, and the Rio Times said that income is too small to close the gap.

Belgium, where Euroclear is based, still opposes an asset-backed scheme unless conditions are met. Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot has said other member states must share the risk in full, cash must be guaranteed if repayment is ever required, and Russian assets held outside Belgium must be included, according to To Brief.

The talks come as the EU’s relationship with Washington is strained over Russia policy. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc is struggling to persuade the United States to increase pressure on Moscow. “It is very difficult with our American allies,” she said, according to UNN. Costa said sanctions on Russia will stay in force until the war ends.

For Canadians, the debate bears on the Ukrainian-Canadian community and on Ottawa’s own sanctions and support for Kyiv. Prime Minister Mark Carney is to host a Canada-EU summit in Montreal on Oct. 29 and 30, with the funding question still open.

What happens next depends on the Commission. No date has been set for its proposal, and no member state has yet committed to guarantee a new loan. Earlier this month the EU adopted its largest Russia sanctions list, and leaders backed Zelenskyy as a rift with Trump widened. In France, Marine Le Pen has said she would end French aid to Ukraine after six months.

Via To Brief, UNN and the Rio Times. Figures for the funding gap and the Russian assets are estimates reported by those outlets and could not be independently confirmed.

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