Canada’s red-hot real estate market showed signs of cooling down in March as both the number of homes sold and the average selling price declined from the previous month’s level.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which represents more than 100,000 realtors across the country, reported Tuesday that on average, homes sold on the Multiple Listings Service went for $796,000.
That’s down about three per cent from the all-time high of $816,720 the previous month, and a noteworthy change in direction after the unprecedented tear that Canadian home prices have been on for the better part of two years now.
“While the market remains historically very active, March definitely saw a slowdown compared to February in terms of both activity and price growth,” CREA chair Jill Oudil said. “One month does not make a trend, so we’ll have to wait and see if this is the beginning of the long-awaited cooling off of this market.”
Average selling prices were down, as was the actual volume of homes sold. Total sales came in 5.6 per cent lower in March than they did in February. They were also down by 16 per cent from the all-time high clocked in the same month a year earlier.
Though down from February’s level, the average selling price is still up by more than 11 per cent compared to where it was a year ago. But that pace of increase is slowing, too. March’s annual increase is about half the 20 per cent annual gain clocked in February.
A ‘marked slowdown’
CREA says the national average price number can be misleading because it is so easily skewed by sales in big expensive markets like Toronto and Vancouver. So the realtor group trumpets a different number, known as the House Price Index (HPI), as a better gauge of the market because it adjusts for the volume and type of housing.
The HPI increased by one per cent in March, a “marked slowdown” from the 3.5 per cent increase in February, CREA noted. As is the case with the national average, however, the HPI is still up an eye-popping 27 per cent on an annual basis.
Nasma Ali says she’s seen signs of a slowdown in Toronto, where she’s a broker and founder of One Group Real Estate. While the numbers released Tuesday are for March, she says the trend has become even more pronounced in April, where “buyer fatigue” may be setting in after the Bank of Canada hiked its interest rate twice in the last two months, and is expected to raise it even more in the coming months.
“I just think that this is kind of the beginning of a slower market, maybe a more balanced market,” she told CBC News in an interview. “We’re kind of at the top … we’ve just started to go down a little bit [but] I just don’t know how long or how low that that downward will be.”
WATCH | Market sentiment has changed, Toronto realtor says:
That’s similar to what’s happening in another expensive and hot real estate market, as Vancouver’s may be showing signs of cooling.
The average selling price in Greater Vancouver was $1.29 million in March, down slightly from $1.32 million the previous month. Prices are still up from $1.16 million a year ago, but realtor Leo Wilke with Engel & Völkers says the pace of increase is slowing. “The escalation that was happening during COVID was just so crazy,” he told CBC News in a recent interview. “One guy sells for X, the next guy gets more, the next guy gets more.”
“Now, what we’ve seen is we’ve kind of leveled off from that,” Wilk said.
Robert Kavcic, an economist with Bank of Montreal, says it’s too early to tell if March represents a blip or the start of a new downward trend, but he suspects the latter.
“Keep in mind that last March was the absolute summit of the pandemic demand mountain, so the reported year-over-year drop is somewhat exaggerated,” he said in a note to clients Tuesday. “There are signs that the appetite is pulling back amid higher mortgage rates, and the decline in March might be the first in a longer series of softening trends.”
Firing Bank of Canada head would spark global ‘shock wave’: ex-budget watchdog – Global News
If any Canadian government were to fire the head of the Bank of Canada, the result would be a “global financial shock wave,” warned the country’s former budget watchdog.
In an interview with The West Block guest host Eric Sorenson, former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page said the Bank of Canada’s reputation is one as a “strong” and “transparent” institution.
“We’ve gotten used to, over the past three decades, having an independent central bank that is independent — making decisions on these policy interest rates that is divorced from the political environment,” said Page, now president and CEO of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa.
“It would be quite a shock wave, a global financial shock wave, to have a government literally remove a central banker who, by all intents, seems to be doing a fine job — but is doing a very difficult job.”
Page had been asked what the effects could be if a Canadian government were to fire a central banker.
That comes as Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre has been leading a campaign of criticism centring on the Bank of Canada’s handling of rampant inflation, which sits at 6.7 per cent.
The domestic target is two per cent per year.
As part of his criticism of the central bank, Poilievre has vowed that he would fire Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, if elected prime minister. That comment triggered rapid criticism over concerns it signalled an intent by the perceived leadership frontrunner to interfere with the bank.
Long-standing tradition is that the Bank of Canada operates independently of political decisions, with governors appointed on seven-year terms.
Officials have emphasized that those longer terms are what allows them to operate with a “measure of continuity over economic cycles — not electoral cycles — and allows for decision making that considers the long-term economic interests of Canadians.”
The Bank of Canada has opted to keep interest rates at rock-bottom during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is among the factors experts say have fuelled skyrocketing home prices. And as inflation keeps pushing the cost of living higher and higher, critics of the central bank like Poilievre have pointed the finger and argued its low rates are powering domestic inflation.
Canada, however, is far from alone.
Inflation is rampant around the world right now, with no clear end in sight.
High consumer spending amid the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has combined with supply chain shocks worsened both by factory closures caused by the reality that the virus is still circulating in high numbers, as well as the sharp shortages in supplies caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Bank of Canada forecasts nearly 6% average inflation outlook in 1st half of 2022
“I think it’s a very simplification to assume that if we just change the leader, that somehow this sort of global environment — and inflation truly is a global issue — just somehow disappears,” Page said.
Sorenson asked: “Can the Bank or the Canadian government on their own bring inflation down in this country?”
Page said: “No.”
“This is a global phenomenon. A lot of it is supply-related, and it’s because of those very strong supports that went in 2020 to help during the lockdown,” he added.
“The economy’s come back really fast and eventually markets will adjust.”
So when might Canadians expect to see inflation back in a more normal range?
Page said the Bank of Canada’s moves to raise interest rates will play a role in helping slow the economy.
“I think over the next couple of years we could see inflation back maybe in that three per cent range.”
Sticker Shock: Coping with the rising cost of inflation in Canada
© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
David Milgaard, who advocated for justice after he was wrongfully convicted of murder, has died
David Milgaard, who was wrongfully convicted of murder and spent more than 23 years in prison, has died. Milgaard was only 17 when he was arrested for the rape and murder of Gail Miller in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He was released from prison in 1992 after DNA evidence proved his innocence. In 1999, Milgaard was awarded $10 million in a wrongful conviction lawsuit against the Canadian government. Milgaard and two friends had been on a road trip, driving through the city when the murder happened.
Milgaard, who was born in Winnipeg, had been living in Calgary with his son and daughter.
Milgaard maintained his innocence throughout his time in prison. His mother Joyce Milgaard, who died in 2020, tirelessly advocated on her son’s behalf. In the decades since his release, Milgaard had spoken publicly, calling for changes in how Canadian courts review convictions.
His picture is now included in the Canadian Journey’s gallery at the Canadian Museum for Human Rights. Isha Khan, the museum’s CEO, said Milgaard was a human rights defender.
“He is someone we know, and the reason we know is that he was able to tell his story, and it takes a special kind of person to continue to try to connect with people,” she said, adding his work is not over.
“There are people across this country in correctional institutions who have been wrongfully convicted, who need a voice and don’t have a voice that David Milgaard did for whatever reason it may be, and it is our job to listen and to look for those stories.”
Milgaard had recently been pushing for an independent review board to prevent miscarriages of justice.
“David was a marvellous advocate for the wrongly convicted, for all the years he’s been out since 1992. We’re going to miss him a lot. He was a lovely man,” James Lockyer, a Toronto-based lawyer, told CTV News Channel on Sunday.
Lockyer, a founding director of the Association in Defence of the Wrongly Convicted, joined Milgaard’s case following his release in 1992 and helped him through the process to get DNA testing done. Lockyer said as a result of the DNA evidence, a man named Larry Fisher was arrested, and charged with the rape and murder. Fisher died while serving a life sentence.
Ontario international students, families making 'massive sacrifices' for the Canadian dream – CBC.ca
The death of an Indian student in Toronto last month made international headlines, but while Kartik Vasudev’s story ended in tragedy, his parents’ sacrifices offer a glimpse into the hardships that many international students and their families face to achieve the dream of a future in Canada.
Vasudev’s father, Jitesh Vasudev, told CBC News he and his wife spent their entire life savings and mortgaged their house to take out a loan of $50,000, just to afford the first year of his son’s education in Canada, before he was shot and killed.
“The only mistake of my innocent child was that he dreamt big of studying in a foreign country, and he wanted to make a name of himself while representing India,” said Vasudev’s mother, Pooja Vasudev, in a video posted to Instagram. “We had a lot of dreams and expectations with our child, he was going to be our support in our old age.”
International students who spoke to CBC News say those kinds of sacrifices are common, and can take a major toll.
They say international students can pay almost four times more in tuition fees than domestic students, and are calling for change.
An Ontario Auditor General’s report from last year highlighted the reliance of Ontario colleges on international student tuition.
The report showed that while international students represented only 30 per cent of the total enrolment in public colleges, they accounted for 68 per cent of tuition fee revenue at a total of $1.7 billion. A majority of students — 62 per cent — were from India.
According to a 2020 report from Global Affairs Canada, international students contributed $16.2 billion and $19.7 billion to Canada’s GDP in 2017 and 2018.
A better future in Canada
Students and advocates told CBC News that many international students from India come to Canada to become permanent residents and build a better future for themselves as well as their families.
They say there are limited employment opportunities in India compared to Canada, leading their parents to go to great lengths to send them abroad.
Jobanpreet Singh knows that struggle firsthand.
“[Vasudev’s family] sacrificed a lot to send their child to Canada for a brighter future,” the 22-year-old international student said. “I can’t imagine how painful it must have been for them.”
Born and raised in a farmer’s family in Punjab, India, Singh came to Canada as an international student in August 2021, where he is studying at the Academy of Learning Career College in Toronto.
For his first year in Canada, his family spent around $30,000 on his tuition and living expenses.
Singh said his family spent all their savings, took out massive loans and sold assets just to be able to pay for his first year of college.
“[International students] have work stress, school stress, and we have extremely high tuition fees, which is topped off with the fact that we can only work 20 hours a week,” he said.
Singh said it is very difficult to handle expenses and living costs in Toronto while working those limited hours.
According to a statement from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), “limiting off-campus work to 20 hours per week reflect the fact that the focus for international students in Canada is on their studies.”
Tuition gap between domestic and international students
Sarom Rho from advocacy group Migrant Students United says international students who come to Canada also face rising costs of tuition fees, which are already three to four times more than domestic tuition.
“The majority of current and former international students and their families have made massive sacrifices for them, for example by selling lands, taking out massive educational loans, selling assets, just to pay for these extremely high tuition fees,” said Rho.
Rho added that because of these financial burdens, international students also face significant mental health issues.
Ontario’s Ministry of Colleges and Universities said in a statement that it understands that as newcomers to Canada and Ontario, international students can face unique challenges.
“Student wellbeing is paramount, and we support the steps taken by Ontario’s colleges and universities to ensure that international students are well supported before and after their arrival in Ontario,” said James Tinajero, spokesperson for the ministry.
Gurpreet Singh, a 22-year-old Seneca College student, came to Canada in September 2020. His parents mortgaged their entire agricultural farmland to send him to Canada.
He said because of his international student status in Canada, he can’t apply for scholarships and bursaries at his college.
“That’s a huge drawback for us,” said Gurpreet. “If we’re not getting anything extra [over] the domestic students and we pay the same taxes, then why do we pay this huge amount for our tuition?”
The ministry says college and university boards of governors have the full authority to set tuition fees for international students.
“Colleges and universities are allowed the discretion to establish tuition fees for international students at levels the institutions deem appropriate,” said Tinajero.
Gurpreet has completed half of his education, and the remaining two semesters of his studies will cost him about $16,000. But instead of asking for help from his family, Gurpreet is taking the responsibility on himself.
According to the IRCC, international students can work full-time when they are on a scheduled break, like during winter and summer holidays, or during a fall or spring reading week.
Gurpreet is currently on a summer break from his college. He says this is his last chance to work full-time before he begins his third semester in the fall.
For the next four months of summer break, Gurpreet says he’ll be working in two different warehouses doing long days of general labour.
“Right now I’ve [got] to concentrate on my work to pay off my fees, so I’m willing to compromise for the next four months,” he said.
“I know this is going to be hard, but these hardships are temporary, and there’s light at the end of the tunnel.”
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