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Oil Price Crash 50% Of U.S. Shale Could Go Bankrupt

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It’s one for the history books.

Oil opened on Monday down roughly 25 percent, the sharpest decline in decades, and broader financial markets fell so precipitously that the circuit breakers put in place during times of volatility tripped, temporarily halting trading.

The list of adjectives available to describe what is happening to the oil market is not adequate. There are now multiple crises unfolding at the same time.

First, there is obviously a health crisis – the coronavirus continues to spread. Large swathes of northern Italy are now on lockdown. The number of cases in the U.S. has surged, and could explode in the coming days. Mandatory lockdowns may not be far off. The Trump administration is asleep at the wheel, actively trying to play down the extent of the crisis.

Second, there is a brewing economic crisis. China shut down parts of its economy in January and February. Parts of Europe followed. The U.S. is next.

The Dow Jones has fallen by more than 16 percent in the past week, and markets have quickly shifted from concern to full blown panic.

Third, if all of that is not enough, OPEC and Russia just added on an oil supply crisis. The collapse of talks last week and the ensuing price war has WTI down to $33 per barrel as of midday on Monday, down from $45 last Thursday on the eve of the OPEC+ talks. OPEC and Russia have said that all restraints on production expire at the end of the month, and everyone can produce at will. Oil could easily be in the $20s at any moment (and might be by the time this piece is published).

For the U.S. oil industry, this is a historic crisis. It has the ingredients to be far worse than the 2008 financial meltdown. At that time, a sharp contraction in the global economy blew a hole in the market. But OPEC responded by cutting production.

This time, that same potential for an economic calamity is present, but there is an oil price war occurring simultaneously.

A decade ago, the shale industry barely existed, and falling oil prices cushioned the blow to the U.S. economy by making energy cheaper. Today, an oil market bust could pretty quickly plunge Texas, North Dakota and Appalachia, among other places, into a recession.

Analysts are now predicting that the Eurozone, at a minimum, is heading for an economic recession. France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire said that Europe needs a “call to arms” to defend the economy.

The pain for U.S. drillers was immediately visible when markets opened on Monday. Deep losses hit everyone. “We have taken the unprecedented steps of bringing our full coverage group to Hold or Sell,” Neal Dingmann of SunTrust said, according to Bloomberg. He called it “energy Armageddon.”

“Not one company in our coverage can keep production flat for more than a few months while spending within cash flow at $35 WTI,” Charles Meade of Johnson Rice & Co. said, according to Bloomberg.

On Monday, Diamondback Energy said that it would “immediately” slash capex and cut back on completion crews and rigs.

Shale drillers were already facing substantial hurdles with cash flow problems and maturing debt. “We are preparing for two years of low prices and will make the necessary adjustments to maintain our great balance sheet,” Pioneer Natural Resources’ CEO Scott Sheffield told the Washington Post. Pioneer’s share price cratered by 32 percent on Monday.

“There will be many bankruptcies in our industries and tens of thousands of layoffs over the next 12 months,” Sheffield added.

Shale stocks tanked on Monday, with big names in shale such as EOG Resources, Whiting, Continental Resources and Apache all down over 30%. But one of the biggest losers was Occidental Petroleum, which has seen its market capitalization shrink to $15 billion. It paid $38 billion for Anadarko, and shares are off roughly 73% since that deal.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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Canada’s economy creates almost 1 million jobs in June – Canada Immigration News

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Canada immigration levels May 2020 Express EntryLifting coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions around the country has sparked the beginning of Canada’s economic recovery.

Many Canadians and permanent residents returned to work for their previous employers while others started new jobs.

Between February and April, a total of 3 million people lost their jobs due to the lockdown, and another 2.5 million were absent from work due to coronavirus-related reasons, according to a Statistics Canada report published on Friday.

May saw a slow start of economic recovery as 290,000 people returned to work. Building on this, the month of June helped alleviate low unemployment rates across the country as employment increased by a record 953,000 people.

Find out if you are eligible for any Canadian immigration programs

These last two months saw the labour market recover by a staggering 40%. Over 1.24 million people gained employment, after 3 million people lost their jobs earlier in the year.

Canada’s overall unemployment rate dropped from 13.7% in May to 12.3% in June.

In addition, the report says that labour force participation rate has increased substantially over the last two months up to 63.8% in June. In comparison, it was 65.5% in February, before coronavirus-related restrictions.

The labour force participation rate is the percentage of the population, aged 15 or older, who are part of the labour force.

This suggests that many people are now more optimistic about the potential of finding a job. The Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB)’s requirement to actively search for work may be another factor. The CESB was introduced to alleviate financial struggles of students who may have been affected by the coronavirus-related restrictions

Moreover, the number of people who work less than half of their usual hours also decreased in June to 26.9% down from 34.3%.

The rise of employment across all provinces is largely aligned with the easing of lockdown restrictions.

Employment in Ontario increased by 378,000 (or 5.9%), Quebec by 248,000 (or 6.5%) and British Columbia by 118,000 (or 5.4%).

As Canada begins reopening its economy, many Canadians and permanent residents have returned to work or have begun looking for work.

In addition, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has returned to normal in terms of Express Entry draws. The latest draw held was an all-program draw. This means that candidates for the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) and the Federal Skilled Trades Class (FSTC) were also considered.

Since the travel restrictions were put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, IRCC had been holding program-specific draws, alternating between Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws.

Canada’s latest job statistics is good news for these immigrants since they can expect a stronger job market once they have obtained permanent residence.

Find out if you are eligible for any Canadian immigration programs

© 2020 CIC News All Rights Reserved

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COVID-19: Alberta reports 77 new cases on Friday, death count falls by 1 – CTV News

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Alberta reported 77 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, bringing its total number of cases to 8,596.

There are 592 active cases across the province and 7,844 people have recovered from the coronavirus. 

The province’s death count fell by one on Friday, from 161 to 160. The number of COVID-19-related deaths fell from 18 to 17.

“One of the deaths reported at the Misericordia has been determined to not have COVID-19 as a contributing cause of death,” a spokesman for the province told CTV News.

The city of Edmonton has now surpassed 1,000 total cases, with 1,001. Its number of active cases sits at 173.

More than 510,000 COVID-19 tests have now been completed in Alberta. 

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Edmonton, Calgary top Canadian cities in unemployment – CTV News Edmonton

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Alberta has the second-worst provincial unemployment rate in Canada after Newfoundland and Labrador..

According to new Statistics Canada data, unemployment reached 15.5 per cent in June.

It marks an 8.8 per cent difference from the same time last year.

The only province with a higher unemployment rate is Newfoundland and Labrador, at 16.5 per cent.

And unemployment in Alberta’s largest cities is also highest among Canadian major urban centres: about 15.7 per cent of the Edmonton workforce is currently unemployed, and 15.6 per cent of the Calgary workforce.

In May, their unemployment rates were 13.6 per cent and 13.4 per cent, respectively.

The news comes alongside a report that Canada added 953,000 jobs in June as businesses forced to close by the pandemic began to reopen.

“That’s important progress but we have a long way to go,” Alberta Premier Jason Kenney commented Friday at a news conference in Fort Saskatchewan, where a carbon capture and storage facility recently reached the five-million equivalent tonnes milestone.

Kenney’s government’s economic recovery plan centres on infrastructure projects that create jobs and making Alberta an attractive place for investment – as does the facility at the Shell Scotford complex, Kenney said.

“Projects like this are a key part of Alberta’s recovery plan to build, to diversify, and to create jobs. When the global economy comes back form COVID, when demand returns for oil and gas, we are going to see, I believe, something of a supply shortage because of all the upstream exploration that has been cancelled, and so we’ll see prices go up. And that will be a great opportunity for Alberta, especially as we make progress on pipelines,” he said.

“But there’s one critical factor, we’ve got to bring investment back. And that means we’ve got to demonstrate our progress on environmental responsibility which is why investments like this… are so important to jobs, the economy, and the future prosperity of Alberta.”

The national unemployment rate fell to 12.3 per cent after hitting a record-high of 13.7 per cent in May.

With files from CTVNews.ca

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