Carney calls Alberta exit vote a ‘bluff’ at Calgary rally

Prime Minister Mark Carney told a Forever Canadian rally of about 5,000 people in Calgary on Thursday that a vote against Canada in Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum is a “dangerous bluff,” according to The Canadian Press.

Updated Oct. 16, 2026, 5 a.m. MT. This story is developing.

Albertans vote Monday on 10 ballot questions run by Elections Alberta. The last asks whether the province should remain in Canada or start the legal process toward a later, binding vote on leaving. A “yes” to leave would not separate Alberta by itself.

Carney said the referendum comes at the worst possible time, The Canadian Press reported. He said some people outside Canada’s borders are working to “break us so they can own us.” Neither report quoted in this story names a country or group.

“What we need is a decisive result on Monday to settle this question,” Carney told the crowd, according to The Canadian Press. TRT World, citing agency reports, said he also urged Albertans to “let Alberta lead, not leave.”

He said Alberta’s frustrations are real and described Canada as a country that works through co-operative federalism. Bill Chan, who attended the Calgary rally, called Carney’s tone toward the provinces “conciliatory.” “We’ve got everything we need here and we’re stronger together than we are apart,” Chan said.

The prime minister also pointed to the proposed Pacific Link pipeline, which TRT World reported he said would create more than 140,000 jobs and reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States. Our earlier report on Métis leaders who say Ottawa shut them out of Pacific Link talks shows the project is still contested.

Carney is not the only leader making the pitch. He was scheduled to visit Red Deer on Friday with Premier Danielle Smith, who has said she voted for Alberta to stay in Canada while backing the other nine questions, according to The Canadian Press. Carney is then due at the EXPO Centre in Edmonton, where free registered passes were required.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Smith are also set to speak at a Calgary conference on keeping Alberta in Confederation, The Canadian Press reported. That puts the federal Liberal and Conservative leaders, and the premier, on the same side of the question in the final days.

The Canadian Press also reported that Quebec sovereigntists are distancing themselves from Alberta separatists. Marie-Anne Alepin of the Société St-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal said Alberta is using separatism as leverage in negotiations with Ottawa, according to the report.

Polls have favoured staying. TRT World said surveys show fewer than a quarter of Albertans support breaking away. An Ipsos poll for Global News taken Sept. 18 to 22 found 70 per cent would vote to remain and 20 per cent would vote to start the separation process, with 10 per cent undecided, as we reported earlier. Angus Reid found 51 per cent of respondents considered the question confusing.

Turnout is the open question. Elections Alberta said 174,532 people voted on the first advance day, about 16 per cent above the average advance day in past provincial elections. Advance polls run until Saturday, Oct. 17, and mail-in ballots were due by 5 p.m. Friday. Our guide explains how to vote in the Oct. 19 referendum.

The Calgary crowd figure and Carney’s “worst possible time” remark come from The Canadian Press alone. The “lead, not leave” and pipeline jobs lines come from TRT World alone. Carney’s earlier appeal to Albertans is in our Thanksgiving report.

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Via The Canadian Press (CP24) and TRT World. File photo: Carney and Premier Danielle Smith in Fort McMurray, Alta., Oct. 1, 2026.