It’s a battle between two of the AFC’s top teams when the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers (11-1) suffered their first loss last Monday, a 23-17 setback against Washington, but quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been in top form and the defense remains among the best in the NFL. The Bills (9-3) have won five of their past six and sit atop the AFC East standings. They are led by emerging star quarterback Josh Allen and an opportunistic defense.
Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite in its latest Steelers vs. Bills odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 48. Before making any Bills vs. Steelers picks or NFL predictions, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 20-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning almost $800. The model also enters Week 14 on an incredible 116-76 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Steelers vs. Bills. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Bills vs Steelers:
- Steelers vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -1.5
- Steelers vs. Bills over-under: 48
- Steelers vs. Bills money line: Pittsburgh +110, Buffalo -130
- PIT: WR Diontae Johnson has at least six receptions in five straight games
- BUF: WR Stefon Diggs has topped 85 receiving yards in eight games this season
Why the Bills can cover
Buffalo is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a home favorite, and Allen has the offense humming. He threw for 375 yards and four TDs in a 34-24 win against San Francisco on Monday night and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the third time this season.
Allen is fifth in the NFL with 3,403 passing yards and has 26 TD passes. The addition of receiver Stefon Diggs has been critical, as he has 90 catches (tied for the NFL lead) and 1,037 yards.
The Bills have covered the spread in four straight games, winning by exactly 10 points in three and losing by two on a Hail Mary in the other. The defense’s strength is in the secondary, and it faces a weary team playing its third game in 12 days. All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White has three interceptions and safety Jordan Poyer has two sacks, two picks and a team-high 100 tackles.
Why the Steelers can cover
Pittsburgh is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these teams, and the defense has been dominant. It leads the league in sacks (44) and takeaways (23) and allows a league-low 17.6 points per game. T.J. Watt leads the NFL with 12 sacks, and Stephon Tuitt has eight. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is a ball-hawk on the back end, picking off four passes and recovering a fumble. He also has forced a fumble and returned one of the picks for a score.
The Steelers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven conference games, and Roethlisberger has returned with a vengeance after having elbow surgery and missing most of last season. He has thrown for 3,105 yards and 27 TDs (fifth-most in NFL). He has a bevy of talented targets, with wide receiver Dionate Johnson leading the team with 654 yards, Chase Claypool leading with eight TDs and JuJu Smith Schuster posting a team-high 73 receptions.
How to make Steelers vs. Bills picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with the model suggesting both teams will struggle to move the ball on the ground. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here.
So who wins Bills vs. Steelers on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bills vs. Steelers spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 116-76 run.
