But this time, with the two parties neck-and-neck as voting day approaches, the election is not about jobs or pipelines or even party platforms.

It’s about Rachel Notley, leader of the NDP, and Danielle Smith, leader of the United Conservative Party.

Issues have surfaced, none of them campaign-defining. The NDP has hammered away on health care. They’ve promised a recruitment strategy for doctors and nurses, and repeatedly raised the spectre of private medicine, which is actually part of the UCP’s handbook. It’s an issue the NDP poll better on than the UCP.

And the UCP have talked extensively about the economy. Former prime minister Stephen Harper even put out a video early in the campaign warning about the economic damage he believes the NDP would do if they were re-elected. The UCP polls well on the economy.

Albertans seem to put Smith and Notley in a dead heat in terms of who they like more: 39 per cent have a positive view of Notley, 38 per cent have a positive view of Smith. The numbers are equally tight for those who dislike Notley (46 per cent) and Smith (47 per cent), per recent Abacus Data polling.

Six months, a year ago, it looked like Notley’s race to lose. The NDP had good polling numbers, and Notley was well-liked. The party out-fundraised their opponents and was flush with cash.

After Jason Kenney quit the UCP, a leadership campaign last summer saw the party’s right edge emerge victorious, with Smith taking the helm in a narrow victory. By the time the UCP held its convention last fall, the party was united to defeat Notley’s NDP.

The latest polling — the bulk of it from Mainstreet Research — shows the United Conservatives with a modest lead. On May 25, the pollster reported 46 per cent of Albertans planned to cast a ballot for the UCP, and 42 per cent for the NDP, with seven per cent still undecided, and the remainder scattered between small parties.

“The fact that the NDP are even close is already an indictment of the Danielle Smith era of the UCP,” said Boessenkool. “There’s no way that any party should be close to a united conservative tent.”

At least part of the reason has been the “bozo eruptions.” In a country where an impropriety or an inelegant comment has been enough to end a political career — and scuppered Smith’s last crack at becoming premier in 2012 — the UCP has largely kept its candidates while dealing with a steady drip of controversy.

“I think these things will affect turnout: they’ll hurt UCP turnout and they’ll boost NDP turnout,” said Boessenkool.

Jennifer Johnson, a nurse and farmer who lives near the central Alberta town of Bentley, was the UCP candidate for Lacombe-Ponoka, at least until audio of her comparing transgender children in the classroom to feces in cookie dough leaked out. She’s still technically on the ballot — it was too late to remove her — but Smith said she won’t sit in caucus.

“(They’re) focusing on the UCP’s record on the economy, and really sowing equal doubt in the minds of voters about ‘do you want to go back to to a Rachel Notley-led government,’” Myatt said.

For most of her career in media and politics, Smith has operated on something of the political fringe; the libertarian wing of Alberta politics. As recently as June 2021, Smith argued in a position paper that out-of-pocket payments would be necessary to sustain the health-care system, and in October 2021, suggested selling off several Alberta hospitals. Those positions have been repeated ad nauseam by her NDP opponents, and Smith has had to swear, repeatedly, she doesn’t stand by her previous comments.

Additionally, she promoted hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, as a “100 per cent” effective treatment for COVID-19, and herself took Ivermectin — an anti-parasitic drug — when she came down with COVID-19, picking up the drug on the same day the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta said it should never be prescribed to treat the viral infection.

Trussler compared Smith’s actions to those of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the SNC-Lavalin affair. “In the whole scheme of things, it is a threat to democracy to interfere with the administration of justice,” Trussler wrote.

Again, the report didn’t seem to move voters. At least part of the explanation, said Menzies, is that everyone knew the report was coming and anticipated it wouldn’t exonerate Smith. It was already baked in with voters, Menzies said.

The UCP mentions in its campaign advertising that Notley once said Alberta risked being Canada’s “embarrassing cousin” if it didn’t get its environmental record under control. And that Sarah Hoffman, former NDP deputy premier, once called Wildrose supporters “sewer rats.” Campaign literature in Edmonton details “anti-police” NDP candidates, too, but none of it seems to have broken into the popular discourse.

“I think voters kind of look past the noise now,” said Menzies.

On May 18, Rachel Notley and Danielle Smith faced off in a one-on-one leaders debate. It was just hours after Trussler had released her report. The UCP had crowed victory, as Trussler also said that she could find no evidence that Smith had contacted Crown prosecutors directly regarding COVID prosecutions, a central allegation the CBC had been reporting that the NDP had seized on.

“Ms. Notley, the NDP and the CBC lied for months saying I was calling Crown prosecutors and my staff were calling Crown prosecutors and it wasn’t true, and that is what the ethics commissioner found,” Smith responded.

For Smith, the debate was a strong showing. Perhaps her best day on the campaign.

“The NDP has had a full campaign of draws and the UCP has had a full campaign of losses, with one draw,” said Boessenkool.

Anecdotal evidence from those working the doors around the province for the NDP suggests voters do care about some of the scandals.

There have been some high-profile defections from conservative camps, who aren’t voting blue this time.

There’s no way that any party should be close to a united conservative tent

Doug Griffiths, who served as a cabinet minister under former Progressive Conservative premier Ed Stelmach, said he’d be giving his vote to the New Democrat in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, a suburban and rural riding east of Edmonton.

“I don’t believe the UCP party is conservative anymore,” Griffiths said in a video. “They are conspiratorial, they are feeding anger. They are anti-science, anti-truth, anti-fact.”

“I’m a lifelong conservative both federally and provincially, and this is a big change for me to abandon my party, but I simply cannot any longer tolerate this,” Foster told the Calgary Herald.

“The vast majority of conservatives who are nervous about Danielle are ultimately going to wind up supporting her,” Myatt predicted.

The tight popular vote polling doesn’t break down cleanly in terms of seat count, which are weighted towards Calgary and small-town Alberta — conservative heartlands. There are 87 seats in the Alberta legislature, 20 of them in Edmonton, 26 in Calgary and 41 in the rest of the province.

On Monday, it may come down to who can get people out the door and to the polling stations.

“The only thing left to do is to motivate and mobilize your supporters to get to the polls,” said Leah Ward, Notley’s former communications director, now with Wellington Advocacy. “There’s very little persuading left to do.”

• Email: tdawson@postmedia.com | Twitter:

Alberta’s United Conservative Party jumped out to a lead over the NDP in early returns Monday in what was forecast to be a tight race in the provincial election.

Danielle Smith’s UCP was holding strong in its traditional rural strongholds while Rachel Notley’s NDP was faring well in Edmonton, where it won all but one seat in 2019.

Early results were still mixed in the key battleground of Calgary, with about 10 per cent of polls reporting, according to Elections Alberta.

Here are the incoming results by riding:

9 p.m.

Braid: Despite the wild and angry campaign, Alberta will settle down

Albertans haven’t gone crazy, OK? We’re still just regular Canadians who want decent, competent government and a team that can win a Stanley Cup.

Despite all appearances, this campaign was never about which side was more dangerous. It was about capturing the reasonable middle where most Albertans park their politics. Both parties tried to do that by demonizing the other, while offering policies and solutions well within the bounds of reason.

Read more.

5:36 p.m.

Memorable quotes from the campaign trail

Candidates for both the United Conservative Party and New Democrats have been campaigning over the last four weeks for their party to form the next Alberta government.

Here are some memorable quotes from the campaign:

“(The NDP) devastated the Alberta economy. They created policies that drove investment out, drove jobs out, and we had to reverse all of that,” UCP Leader Danielle Smith said on May 1, the day the writ was dropped. “The choice in this election couldn’t be clearer. It’s a choice between a UCP government that will cut your taxes and make life more affordable or an NDP government that will make you pay more across the board.”

—

—

“I am satisfied Mr. Pawlowski intended to incite the audience to continue the blockade — intended to incite protesters to commit mischief,” Justice Gordon Krinke said in Lethbridge on May 2, when he found Calgary pastor Artur Pawlowski guilty of charges related to his role in protests against COVID-19 public health measures. In a leaked phone call between Smith and Pawlowski, before his trial, Smith told Pawlowski the charges against him were politically motivated and she would make inquiries on his behalf and report back.

“(Smith) has a policy of not speaking publicly on matters before the courts, except when she’s talking to the person who’s before the courts about how she’s going to interfere with the matter before the courts,” Notley said when asked to comment on Smith’s no comment on the Pawlowski case. “That is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard from her. OK, maybe it’s not the most ridiculous, because there’s a lot of ridiculous.”

—

“(Judicial independence) is a fundamental pillar of our democracy. The premier breached this principle by discussing the accused’s case,” ethics commissioner Marguerite Trussler said in her report released May 18 into Smith’s actions as premier when she called her justice minister about Pawlowski’s case.

—

“I’ve asked the ethics commissioner to give advice,” Smith said May 19. “I am a non-lawyer. As premier, I do need to be able to get advice from my top official, my top legal adviser. If she has recommendations on how to do that better next time, I will absolutely accept them.”

— The Canadian Press

5:30 p.m.

Special measures in place to enable voting for electors affected by wildfires

Alberta’s 2023 election campaign has taken place alongside a record-breaking spring for wildfires in Alberta. Ten communities were under evacuation orders Monday.

Elections Alberta has set up alternate voting locations for those displaced. Evacuation has been added as an eligible reason to vote by special ballot and mobile voting stations have been placed in evacuation centres.

— The Canadian Press

10:55 a.m.

Calgary region had 7 of the top 10 busiest advance polling stations in Alberta last week

Electors in Calgary and area were among the most eager to get to the polls.

Of the 10 busiest polling stations in the province during the advance polling period last week, seven were in Calgary, Elections Alberta said on Monday.

And of those seven, four were in the southern half of Calgary and another was located south of the city.

Generally speaking, more Alberta voters chose to cast their ballot during the advance voting period than ever before.

“For the second election in a row we have seen record-breaking voter turnout during advance voting days,” said Chief Electoral Officer Glen Resler in a statement issued Monday morning. “In 2019, we saw 700,476 ballots cast during the five days of advance voting, this year we have welcomed 758,550 to the polls so far.”

Here were the 10 busiest polling stations during the advance voting period, May 23-27, according to Elections Alberta:

10:35 a.m.

Alberta votes in the strangest — and closest — election in its political history

Whoever wins the Alberta election on Monday, it will be one of the strangest campaigns ever fought in the province, with plenty of drama but few policy issues, and the real possibility of the closest outcome in Alberta political history.

In 2015, when the NDP won, it was the reversal of 40 years of conservative rule, aided by vote-splitting and a voting public whose patience was at an end. In 2019, when the United Conservatives won, it was a massive victory, featuring a re-energized right-wing movement looking to revitalize the province’s economy.

It’s about Rachel Notley, leader of the NDP, and Danielle Smith, leader of the United Conservative Party, writes Tyler Dawson.

Read more.

5 a.m.

Alberta arrives at election day following bitter campaign

Albertans head to the polls Monday to elect their next government, wrapping up a divisive four-week campaign that’s seen each leading party pitch their vision for the province while taking aim at the opposing leader’s record.

Voters are set to decide whether they’ll re-elect Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives, or return to an NDP government headed by Rachel Notley, in a battle between premiers past and present.

Read more.

Alberta election: Everything you need to know before you vote

Albertans go to the polls on May 29 — today.

While there are plenty of promises and policies from the parties to wade through, it’s also important to brush up on voting information.

Before you cast your ballot, here’s what you need to know.

Promises made: Where the NDP and UCP stand on top issues in Alberta election campaign

With Alberta’s election hitting the home stretch, what have the leading political parties in the province done or promised to do if elected today?

Both the UCP and the NDP have been making promises for weeks on major issues leading up to the official campaign, which began in May.

Here are some highlights, which don’t reflect the entirety of the platforms.

Profiles of main party leaders Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley

UCP Leader Danielle Smith

Succeeding Jason Kenney, Smith comes from roots in the socially conservative Wildrose Party. She has been premier since October 2022 after she won the UCP’s leadership race.

Smith, 52, who holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Calgary with a major in English and a minor in economics, started her career in media. First as an extra in the Vancouver film and television industry and then as a journalist on radio, television and in print. While working as a radio broadcaster in March 2020, Smith tweeted and later deleted claims that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine is a cure for COVID-19.

Smith was a lobbyist for the Alberta Enterprise Group, encouraging capital investment and big business in Alberta. She introduced the Alberta Sovereignty Act to prevent the enforcement of “federal rules deemed harmful to Alberta’s interests.” The act passed but only with significant changes to remove the legislation-rewriting powers the original measure would have given Smith and her cabinet.

Since 2017, Smith and her husband, David Moretta, have owned and operated the Dining Car at High River station, a converted rail car in High River.

NDP Leader Rachel Notley

Notley, 59, became premier of Alberta in 2015, ending 44 years of Progressive Conservative Party rule in the Western Canadian province. She lost re-election in 2019 to Kenney.

The daughter of former Alberta New Democratic Party leader Grant Notley, Rachel Notley was a labour advocate and lawyer before entering politics. She specialised in workers’ rights and health and safety. She advocated for the rights of special-needs children with the organisation Moms on the Move.

The campaign has taken place alongside a record-breaking spring for wildfires in Alberta. Ten communities were under evacuation orders Monday.

Elections Alberta has set up alternate voting locations for those displaced. Evacuation has been added as an eligible reason to vote by special ballot and mobile voting stations have been placed in evacuation centres.

Incident Command Centres are working to have special ballots delivered to fire fighters and emergency crews.

war demonstration before she was ten years old.

While premier, Notley gave Canada its first $15 minimum wage, stabilised funding for healthcare, restricted money in elections and increased taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Her government introduced harm-reduction measures targeting the opioid and fentanyl epidemic.

Her husband, Lou Arab, is a communications representative for the Canadian Union of Public Employees and a campaign strategist for the NDP. Notley and Arab live with their two children in the historic Old Strathcona district in Edmonton.