Home resales fell in 11 Canadian markets in September as trade tensions with the United States and higher long-term interest rates weakened buyer confidence, RBC Economics said in a report released Oct. 6.
Robert Hogue, RBC’s assistant chief economist, said the recovery in Toronto, which began in the spring and lasted about five months, reversed. Prices continued to fall in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
The markets with lower sales were Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City, according to RBC.
“The road ahead is likely to be bumpy and uneven across markets,” Hogue wrote. RBC expects improving affordability and a resilient economy to gradually unlock pent-up demand and support a mild national recovery.
In Toronto, resales fell 5.2 per cent in September and the benchmark price declined 0.5 per cent from August. Active listings were down 9.3 per cent from a year earlier, partly because fewer sellers entered the market.
Condos make up nearly one-third of Toronto listings. RBC said the condo price index fell 6.7 per cent from a year earlier, compared with a 4.7 per cent drop for single-detached homes. Hogue wrote that an escalation of the trade war, a rise in some interest rates and a declining population had a “destructive effect.”
Vancouver resales fell nearly eight per cent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the composite MLS Home Price Index was down 5.5 per cent from a year earlier. Active listings are near a decade high.
RBC said prices have fallen steadily since early 2025 and expects pressure to continue through the rest of 2026 and possibly into 2027. “Further depreciation will likely be necessary to draw in more buyers,” Hogue wrote.
Montreal has the opposite problem: supply. Inventory was up 20 per cent from a year earlier, driven by what RBC described as the strongest influx of sellers in six years. New listings rose 7.2 per cent from a year earlier.
More than 24,000 new homes were completed in the Montreal area over the past 12 months, which Hogue called a displacement effect. Active listings rose 30 per cent on the North Shore and 32 per cent on the South Shore. Median condo prices were flat from a year earlier, and single-family prices rose 0.4 per cent.
Calgary was steadier. Resales, new and active listings and the MLS Home Price Index were little changed from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Sales remained historically strong but below last year’s levels.
The split between property types was wide. Single-detached resales in Calgary rose 4.4 per cent from a year earlier while prices slipped one per cent. Condo resales fell 14.3 per cent and condo prices fell 8.3 per cent.
RBC said Edmonton’s prices stabilized after faster earlier declines, and Ottawa’s stabilized as well. Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Winnipeg and Quebec City also reported lower sales.
The report does not give a mortgage rate forecast. Hogue pointed instead to rising long-term interest rates as a drag on demand, particularly in Montreal, where RBC said stretched affordability and slowing population growth should also restrain buyers.
The findings line up with Canadian Real Estate Association figures for August, which showed national sales slipping 0.7 per cent. The association’s September data has not yet been released. Canada News Media has also reported on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s September sales figures.
The numbers come from RBC Economics and were also reported by BNN Bloomberg and Real Estate Magazine. This is a developing picture until national September data arrives.
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Sources: RBC Economics; BNN Bloomberg; Real Estate Magazine.
