Europe could face a natural gas shortfall of 12 to 15 per cent of demand if a severe cold snap hits this winter, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) said in its winter supply outlook published Oct. 8, 2026.
The warning comes with storage well below normal. Euronews reported that European gas storage was 72 per cent full on Oct. 1, compared with 83 per cent at the same point last year.
Both scenarios in the outlook assume no Russian pipeline gas, Euronews reported. The European Union has largely phased out Russian gas, with exceptions for landlocked Hungary and Slovakia. The report called the summer refilling period a “challenging injection season,” according to Euronews.
Southeastern Europe faces localised shortfalls of up to 12 per cent on peak demand days, the outlook said. Even without severe cold, a squeeze on liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply could drain storage to 13 per cent by March 2027, which could force energy-intensive industries to cut production, Euronews reported.
The benchmark Dutch TTF gas price traded at about 79.80 to 80.22 euros per megawatt-hour on Thursday, almost triple its level before the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran began on Feb. 28, Euronews reported. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 per cent of global LNG trade, and exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have been severely constrained since the war began.
Direct European exposure to Qatari gas is about 8 per cent, with Italy the most affected country, according to the report as relayed by Euronews. The United States is the EU’s top LNG supplier.
Other data point the same way. Gas Infrastructure Europe figures, as calculated by Russia’s TASS news agency, put EU storage at 71.54 per cent on Sept. 29, against 82.6 per cent a year earlier and 15.53 percentage points below the five-year average for that date. TASS said that is the lowest for the date since records began in 2011. TASS is a Russian state-owned agency and also cited a Gazprom forecast; the storage figures are consistent with ENTSOG’s numbers.
Landlocked countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe are more exposed than the west, which has benefited from new coastal LNG terminals and Norwegian pipeline supply, Euronews reported the outlook as saying. If reserves fall, governments may come under pressure to put domestic consumers ahead of neighbours.
The European Commission has allowed member states to hold storage at 75 to 80 per cent by Nov. 1 instead of the usual 90 per cent, to avoid panic buying and further price rises, Euronews reported. ENTSOG urged countries to maximize early-winter injections, secure enough LNG and share any demand curtailments equally.
Analysts have been warning for weeks. David Lewis, principal European gas and LNG analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said Europe has “very little room for error this winter,” according to a Forbes report published Sept. 21. The same report said Wood Mackenzie sees inventories at their lowest for the time of year since 2009, and quoted Ineos founder Sir Jim Ratcliffe telling the BBC the United Kingdom could run out of gas in a sharp cold spell. The U.K. government said it is committed to “ensuring security of supply.”
The competition for cargoes is part of the squeeze. Euronews reported in August that, according to market analysts Montel, the five main Asian buyers received more U.S. LNG than Europe did in July for the first time, as Northeast Asia offered higher returns. A Commission spokesperson said then that the situation was “not an emergency at all.”
For Canadians, the main link is price and supply rather than direct exports: the same tight global LNG market that is straining Europe sets the backdrop for Canadian LNG projects and for gas-price headlines abroad. The ENTSOG outlook and the sources above do not mention Canadian supply, and this story does not claim any.
Canadians living in or travelling to Europe this winter can check travel.gc.ca for country-specific advisories. The ENTSOG shortfall figures describe a severe-winter scenario, not a forecast, and the report’s own assumptions beyond those reported here were not available to Canada News Media.
What happens next depends largely on the weather and on how many LNG cargoes reach Europe through November. Storage targets are due by Nov. 1 under the Commission’s relaxed rule.
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Via Euronews, TASS and Forbes. The ENTSOG report itself was not read by Canada News Media; its figures are as reported by Euronews.
