Incumbent Scott Gillingham leads the Winnipeg mayoral race by a wide margin, but more than half of voters have not picked a candidate with 16 days left before the Oct. 28 civic election, according to a Probe Research poll.
The poll, conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press and published Sept. 18, surveyed 600 Winnipeg adults from Aug. 28 to Sept. 14. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Among decided voters, Gillingham had 55 per cent support. Kevin Klein had 23 per cent and Mike Vogiatzakis had 11 per cent. Every other candidate was at one per cent or less, Probe said.
Probe’s authors said the large undecided group points to limited enthusiasm for any candidate and described the race as “by no means a done deal.”
The pollster found about two-thirds of decided voters have no clear second choice, a group that includes most Gillingham supporters. Klein and Vogiatzakis are each the second choice of roughly one in 10 decided voters, and many Klein supporters name Vogiatzakis next.
About two-thirds of Winnipeggers said they are very likely to vote. Probe cautioned that this kind of self-reported figure is often overstated, which matters in a city where turnout has been a concern in past municipal elections.
Twelve candidates are on the mayoral ballot, according to the City of Winnipeg’s election timeline and media coverage of the nomination period, which closed Sept. 22. Besides Gillingham, Klein and Vogiatzakis, the field includes Umar Hayat, Don Woodstock, Christopher Clacio, Mazher Alam, Joshua Pagdato, Johnny Calderon, Noah Redden, Zachary Uminski and Brad Gross, according to Wikipedia’s election page, which Canada News Media has not independently confirmed.
Platforms are so far thinly reported. The same page says Alam is campaigning on fixing potholes, freezing property taxes and reversing water rate increases, while Gross wants to end spending on bike lanes and add security cameras at bus shelters.
Incumbents have historically fared well in Winnipeg. According to the Wikipedia page, the last sitting mayor to lose on election night was in 1956.
Voting is first-past-the-post, meaning the candidate with the most votes wins even without a majority. In a field of 12, that could leave the winner with a modest share of the vote.
Advance voting at City Hall at 510 Main St. runs from Oct. 5 to 4 p.m. on Oct. 23, according to the city clerk’s candidate guide, and other locations are expected to be announced on the city’s election website. Voters can also vote in person on Oct. 28.
The same Wikipedia page says several incumbent councillors are not seeking re-election, creating open races in wards including St. Vital and River Heights-Fort Garry. That list has not been verified against city records, and the page itself is inconsistent about how many seats are open.
The picture remains developing. Only one major public poll is cited here, and the fieldwork ended more than three weeks ago, before the final stretch of campaigning. A second published survey would help show whether Klein or any other challenger is gaining ground.
Canada News Media previously reported on advance voting getting under way.
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Via Probe Research (Winnipeg’s Mayoral Race: Gillingham holds a strong lead, but one-half of residents have no preference), the City of Winnipeg and Wikipedia.
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