IMF chief warns ‘winter is coming’ as Bangkok meetings open

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank opened their annual meetings in Bangkok on Oct. 12, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva saying 18,000 people had registered and warning that “winter is coming” for the global economy, Reuters reported.

The gathering, which runs to Oct. 18 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre, comes with the Strait of Hormuz closed by Iran, which Reuters said has shut off about 20 per cent of the world’s oil, and with public debt at its highest level since the Second World War, according to the IMF.

Georgieva made the “winter is coming” remark in a speech the week before the meetings, Reuters said. She told the news agency during a tour of the Bangkok venue on Sunday evening that registration was 4,000 higher than at the last meetings held outside Washington, in Morocco in October 2023.

World Bank Group President Ajay Banga told Reuters that global growth had held up better than feared but that pressures were building again. Reuters reported that the Bank is not cutting its global forecasts for now but is watching developments closely.

The IMF is expected to leave its 2026 global growth forecast at about three per cent, Reuters reported, citing the fund’s signals ahead of the meetings. It said the IMF’s public debt figures show global debt will exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product before 2030. Developing countries face $400 billion in external debt payments in 2026, and interest already takes more than 10 per cent of revenue on average, according to the same report.

Reuters said downgrades are expected for Ukraine, in its fifth year of war with Russia, and for Gulf countries hit by Iranian strikes and reduced energy exports. The war involving Iran began on Feb. 28, according to Reuters, and more than one billion barrels of oil have been released from stocks since then. The Group of Seven agreed to release another 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves.

There are also political fault lines. Reuters said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not attending, sending two senior officials instead while he handles “domestic engagements,” according to a U.S. official, and is skipping a G20 meeting that the United States leads this year. An earlier preview from Thai PBS World had listed Bessent among expected delegates, so the change is recent. Several other finance ministers are staying home for budget and election duties, Georgieva said, though most central bankers will attend.

Iolanda Fresnillo of the debt-justice group Eurodad told Reuters that the IMF’s proposed move to fewer but deeper loan conditions could bring painful austerity to poorer countries. She cited Kenya, which avoided restructuring by cutting spending and raising taxes, a path that sparked protests. Reuters said G20 diplomats see little appetite for a debt-service suspension like the one during the COVID-19 pandemic.

For Canadians, the meetings matter because Canada is a G7 member and shares in the emergency oil release, and because higher energy costs and weaker global growth feed into the fuel prices and trade conditions the Bank of Canada is weighing ahead of its Oct. 28 rate decision. We did not find an announcement of Canada’s delegation to Bangkok as of Oct. 12. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne took part in the April IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington, Finance Canada said at the time. Related coverage: Trump rules out Iran strikes before Nov. 3 midterms.

The key dates are set. According to the schedule published by Thai media, the IMF releases its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report on Oct. 13 and its Fiscal Monitor on Oct. 14, when Georgieva also holds a press conference. The Development Committee meets on Oct. 15, the plenary is on Oct. 16, when Georgieva is scheduled to appear with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, and the International Monetary and Financial Committee meets on Oct. 17. The World Bank lists the public events on its annual meetings page, which says no registration is needed to watch.

Via Reuters (Andrea Shalal, Bangkok, Oct. 11, as republished by CNBC Africa), The Nation Thailand and Thai PBS World. The IMF’s own schedule page could not be opened, so session dates come from the World Bank page and Thai reports. Developing story.

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