Amazon deforestation falls 42% to lowest on record

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell about 42 per cent to 3,335 square kilometres in the 12 months to July 2026, the lowest level since satellite records began in 1988, the country’s space research institute INPE reported on Friday, Oct. 16.

The drop from 5,731 square kilometres the year before, a fall of 41.8 per cent according to Euronews, comes nine days before Brazilians choose between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in the Oct. 25 runoff, a vote in which forest policy is a live issue.

INPE’s annual PRODES programme, which tracks clearing by satellite, put the previous record low at 4,571 square kilometres in 2011-12, according to a report carried by the Newcastle Herald. Clearing peaked at nearly 30,000 square kilometres a year in the mid-1990s. INPE also reported that clearing in the Cerrado savanna fell about 24 per cent to roughly 5,517 square kilometres, the lowest since that series began in 2001.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, a coalition of Brazilian environmental groups, called the figures “a historic achievement” and said “with political will, it is possible to curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions.”

Brazil’s government says deforestation has fallen 71 per cent since Lula took office in January 2023, according to Euronews. Lula revived a federal plan to prevent and control clearing in the Legal Amazon that dates to 2004 and was shelved under former president Jair Bolsonaro. Its measures include restoring penalties for illegal clearing detected by satellite and barring properties with illegal deforestation from bank loans. Clearing rose about 60 per cent during Jair Bolsonaro’s 2019-2022 term, with more than 45,000 square kilometres cleared, Euronews reported.

Environmental groups warned the gains are fragile. Cristiane Mazzetti of Greenpeace Brazil said the next legislature “will be even more hostile to environmental protection.” Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign said he “is a defender of the environment and of those who preserve standing forests and clean rivers” and he has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029. Lula has promised zero net deforestation by 2030. Euronews reported that Bolsonaro has called for modernizing environmental laws, which many environmentalists see as weakening them.

Fire is a more immediate worry. Euronews reported that fire counts were near historic lows this year but have tripled since Oct. 4, and that smoke has closed schools in Manaus. Environment Minister Joao Paulo Capobianco said fires over protected areas appeared to form a geometric pattern, which suggests they were set deliberately. Authorities are investigating and responsibility is unclear. Euronews also reported that degradation from fire, logging and drought affects about 40 per cent of the Amazon, and that a strong El Nino could bring hotter, drier conditions through 2027.

The result matters beyond Brazil’s borders. Brazil is the largest member of the Mercosur bloc, and the outcome of the runoff will shape the climate and trade context for Canada’s push for a trade deal with the group, as we reported on Oct. 18. A Brazilian court also ordered Meta to treat both candidates equally during the campaign.

Brazilians vote on Oct. 25. INPE’s monthly alerts and the fire counts through the dry season will show whether the record low holds.

Via Euronews, with figures from INPE’s PRODES programme as reported by the Newcastle Herald.

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