Home prices fall in Vancouver and Toronto, rise in Montreal, Ottawa: Royal LePage

Canada’s average home price slipped to $810,000 in the third quarter, down 0.8 per cent from a year earlier, but the national figure hides a sharp split: Greater Vancouver and the Toronto area are falling while Montreal, Ottawa and Winnipeg are rising, according to Royal LePage’s House Price Survey released Oct. 15.

The aggregate price, which Royal LePage calculates from its home-price data, was down 0.6 per cent from the second quarter. The median price of a single-family detached home was $856,500, down 0.5 per cent from a year ago, and the median condominium price was $571,900, down 1.5 per cent. Royal LePage forecasts the aggregate price will be up 1.0 per cent year over year by the fourth quarter, a forecast it revised downward.

Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper said the market is “on a detour, not a derailment.” He blamed low confidence for keeping buyers on the sidelines, telling Mortgage Professional America that “low confidence is outweighing the urgency to lock in today’s favourable borrowing costs.” The company links the hesitation to new U.S. tariffs and the possibility of higher mortgage rates. The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate is 2.25 per cent.

A map of two markets

Set side by side, Royal LePage’s regional numbers show a country moving in opposite directions. Greater Vancouver’s aggregate price was $1,148,100, down 4.0 per cent from a year earlier, and the Greater Toronto Area’s was $1,073,100, down 3.7 per cent. Greater Montreal rose 2.9 per cent to $653,700, Ottawa gained 2.5 per cent to $796,900 and Winnipeg climbed 2.2 per cent to $420,800.

The forecasts widen the gap. For the fourth quarter, Royal LePage expects Greater Vancouver prices to be 4.5 per cent lower than a year earlier and the GTA 2.0 per cent lower. It expects increases in the other eight regional markets it tracks, led by Halifax at 4.0 per cent and Winnipeg at 3.5 per cent, followed by Ottawa and Regina at 3.0 per cent each and Montreal at 2.5 per cent. Calgary is forecast at 1.5 per cent, and Edmonton and Quebec City at 2.0 per cent each.

The size of the spread is visible in a simple calculation from the same survey. The Greater Vancouver aggregate price is about 1.76 times Greater Montreal’s, and the GTA’s is about 2.55 times Winnipeg’s. Those ratios are Canada Newsmedia’s arithmetic from Royal LePage’s published figures, not a figure the company reports.

Condos are the soft spot

The condo segment is weakest in the markets already under pressure. In the City of Vancouver, the median detached price was $2,076,900, down 5.7 per cent, while the condo median was $739,100, down 7.7 per cent. In Calgary the median condo price fell 3.8 per cent to $255,800 while detached prices were essentially flat, down 0.1 per cent to $807,300. In the GTA, condos fell 4.1 per cent to $641,500.

Not every condo market is weak. Quebec City condos rose 4.7 per cent to $348,200, and Regina condos rose 3.1 per cent to $234,000. In the City of Toronto, the median condo price edged up 0.4 per cent to $647,400, even as the detached median fell 5.9 per cent to $1,457,300.

Royal LePage’s Toronto-area spokesperson, Shawn Zigelstein, described a “stark divide in buyer behaviour” between family-oriented homes and the soft condo segment. In Vancouver, Randy Ryalls called it a “stop-and-start environment” where pricing strategy is everything.

What it means for buyers and sellers

Royal LePage’s regional experts offered little sign of a near-term turnaround in the largest markets. Michael Froese in Winnipeg expects “some further modest price softening” through year-end, even though the survey has Winnipeg prices up 2.2 per cent from a year ago, and Jason Ralph in Ottawa said activity has been “much softer than expected this year.” Tom Shearer in Edmonton expects the market to keep “moving toward balance.”

Soper said he expects the Bank of Canada to hold its rate through 2026 and raise it in early 2027, though some forecasters expect an October hike, according to Mortgage Professional America. The central bank’s next decision will test whether the “detour” is short.

Figures are from Royal LePage’s Q3 2026 House Price Survey, confirmed against Mortgage Professional America’s coverage. Photos are illustrative stock photography, not images of any specific property.