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Turkish Economy Shrinks Less Than Forecast After Crisis Stimulus – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Turkish Economy Shrinks Less Than Forecast After Crisis Stimulus

(Bloomberg) — Turkey’s economy contracted the most in over a decade but fared better than forecast by analysts as the government contained the damage from the coronavirus pandemic with a campaign of stimulus.

Gross domestic product last quarter shrank 9.9% from a year earlier, after a gain of 4.5% in the previous three months, according to data released on Monday. The median of 17 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was for a contraction of 10.7%.

The severity of the shock was more evident in seasonally and working day-adjusted figures, which showed a decline of 11% in the second quarter from the previous three months, making it the steepest contraction in data going back to 1998.

Still, the $743 billion economy performed better than many of its peers among developing nations, thanks in part to a combination of interest-rate cuts, fiscal spending and a government-sponsored credit push.

Restrictions imposed by Turkey to stop the contagion from March were more stringent than in the rest of central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, which translated into a “pronounced downturn” in the second quarter, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

To help businesses and consumers ride out the the pandemic, the Turkish government unveiled a 240 billion-lira ($32.7 billion) stimulus package while state banks ramped up lending. Meantime, the central bank injected liquidity by scooping up government bonds and delivered a series of rate cuts including an emergency decrease of a full percentage point in March.

An economic turnaround started to take hold as lockdown measures began to ease toward the end of the second quarter. Industrial production grew in June for the first time since February and economic confidence improved for four straight months through August.

But the drawbacks of the government’s efforts to juice up the economy have also become more obvious.

Inflationary pressures have reemerged alongside another wave of lira depreciation, prompting the central bank to increase the cost of funding through stealth tightening but without resorting to an outright rate hike. Turkey’s currency has depreciated about 19% against the dollar this year and is the worst performer in emerging markets in the third quarter.

The stimulus campaign may not save the economy from one of the steepest full-year contractions in history, with the International Monetary Fund predicting it could slump 5%. Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is more optimistic, estimating this year’s performance at between minus 2% to a 1% gain.

“Leading indicators confirm that the economy is in the phase of recovery from its bottom point,” said Enver Erkan, an economist at Tera Securities in Istanbul.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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