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The liquidation sales at Nordstrom stores across Canada will begin Tuesday.
Business
Before the Bell: Futures dip ahead of Fed rate decision
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Equities
Canada’s main stock index opened lower Wednesday with consumer staples and utilities under pressure. On Wall Street, key indexes also started the day on the back foot as traders await this afternoon’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
At 9:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 52.71 points, or 0.25 per cent, at 20,714.67.
In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.44 points, or 0.14 per cent, at the open to 34,039.60. The S&P 500 opened lower by 6.53 points, or 0.16 per cent, at 4,070.07, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 11.41 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 11,573.14 at the opening bell.
Wednesday will see the Fed’s latest policy announcement. Markets are widely expecting a quarter point rate increase. Traders will be watching for signals about what’s coming next and whether the central bank is nearing a pause in its tightening campaign. A week ago, the Bank of Canada hiked by 25 basis points and became the first major central bank to signal a break after eight consecutive rate increases.
“While Fed officials have insisted that rates will stay high for some time to come, the markets simply don’t believe them, especially when several key inflation indicators have shown that prices are still coming down on a steady trajectory,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst with CMC Markets U.K., said in a note.
“This is what makes today’s [Fed chair Jerome] Powell press conference such a tricky proposition when it comes to market positioning,” he said. “The danger for the Fed is in allowing the market to continue to think that rates are likely to come down this year, which in turn could see inflation take off again, especially with the labour market being as tight as it is.”
The rate decision is due at 2 p.m. ET and will be followed by a news conference.
Meanwhile, earnings continue to pour in on both sides of the border.
On Wall Street, Facebook parent Meta reports after the close of trading.
Shares of Snapchat-parent Snap were down more than 12 per cent in morning trading after the social media company swung to a loss in the latest quarter. The company also warned that revenue in the current quarter could fall by as much as 10 per cent amid a weaker economy and rising competition. Snap’s net loss was US$288-million during the quarter, versus net income of US$23-million the previous year. It reported adjusted earnings per share of 14 US cents, beating Wall Street estimates of 11 US cents. The results were released after Tuesday close.
In Canada, Montreal-based CGI reported results before the start of trading. The company said first quarter earnings per share rose to $1.60 in the most recent quarter from $1.49 a year earlier. Excluding specific items, CGI said it earned $1.66 per diluted share, up from $1.50 per diluted share a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter rose to $3.45-billion, up from $3.09-billion last year.
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., meanwhile, says it earned $1.27-billion or $1.36 a share in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with $532-million or 74 cents in the same period of 2021. The company reported revenue of $2.46-billion, up 21 per cent from a year earlier.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.30 per cent by midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 added 0.23 per cent. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were up 0.39 per cent and 0.30 per cent, respectively.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei ended up 0.07 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.05 per cent.
Commodities
Crude prices wavered as traders await the outcome of the Fed’s latest policy meeting and weigh a decision by OPEC+ to maintain output.
The day range on Brent was US$85.25 to US$86.21 in the early premarket. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$78.83 to US$79.73.
“The oil market is awaiting a couple of major events, both the FOMC decision and the OPEC+ meeting on output,” OANDA senior analyst Ed Moya said.
Members of OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met virtually today. As expected, the group made recommended no change to its current output level. The group will meet again in April.
Reuters reports that OPEC’s oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports dropped and Nigeria’s output did not recover, with the 10 OPEC members pumping 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) below their targeted volumes under the OPEC+ agreement. The shortfall was bigger than the deficit of 780,000 bpd in December.
Later in the day, markets will get weekly U.S. inventory figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. An earlier report from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks rose about 6.3 million barrels last week, more than markets had been expecting.
Meanwhile, gold prices were down as traders await the Fed decision.
Spot gold was 0.2 per cent lower at US$1,924.26 per ounce by early Wednesday morning, after falling to its lowest since Jan. 19 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3 per cent to US$1,939.70.
Currencies
The Canadian dollar was steady, trading around 75 US cents early Wednesday morning, while its U.S. counterpart slid against a group of world counterparts ahead of this afternoon’s Fed policy decision.
The day range on the loonie was 75.03 US cents to 75.26 US cents in the early premarket period.
There were no major Canadian economic releases due Wednesday.
On world markets, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, fell 0.15 per cent to 101.96 by Wednesday morning. It also slipped in the previous session, in part because of a report showing U.S. labour costs had increased in the fourth quarter at their slowest pace in a year, Reuters reported.
The euro was up 0.2 per cent at US$1.0885 as traders await Thursday’s rate decision from the European Central Bank, while Britain’s pound was flat at US$1.2320.
More company news
TC Energy Corp on Wednesday said it now estimates costs for completion of its troubled Coastal GasLink project to be $14.5-billion from $11.2-billion pegged earlier.
Intel Corp said that it had made broad cuts to employee and executive pay, a week after the company issued a lower-than-expected sales forecast driven by a loss of market share to rivals and a PC market downturn. The reductions will range from 5 per cent of base pay for mid-level employees to as much as 25% for Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger, while the company’s hourly workforce’s pay will not be cut, said a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly. –Reuters
Peloton Interactive Inc on Wednesday reported slower cash burn for the second quarter, after the company carried out a host of cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and store shutdowns. The fitness equipment maker posted a cash burn of US$94.4-million, compared with a burn of US$546.7-million a year earlier. –Reuters
Economic news
(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for January.
(9:30 a.m. ET) Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for January.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for January.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for January.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December.
(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.
With Reuters and The Canadian Press
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The upscale department store chain has a store at the Rideau Centre mall as well as a Nordstrom Rack location at the Ottawa Train Yards shopping centre
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A spokesperson for Nordstrom confirmed the impending sales period Monday in an email to The Canadian Press, just after the Ontario Superior Court of Justice gave the U.S. retailer’s Canadian branch permission to start selling off its merchandise.
The upscale department store chain that primarily sells designer apparel, shoes and accessories has six Canadian stores and seven discount Nordstrom Rack locations, including its Rideau Centre location and a Nordstrom Rack at the Ottawa Train Yards shopping centre, which sells merchandise at discounted prices.
When Nordstrom announced the move in early March, it said it expected the Canadian stores to close by late June and 2,500 workers to lose their jobs.
The company initiated the exit from the market because chief executive Erik Nordstrom said, “despite our best efforts, we do not see a realistic path to profitability for the Canadian business.”
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Nordstrom opened its first Canadian store in Calgary in 2014, followed by the Ottawa store at the Rideau Centre, which occupied the second and third levels of a former Sears location.
The Rideau Centre store has an alterations and tailoring shop and an energy drinks bar. Merchandise ranges from brand name to designer apparel, housewares, furnishings and beauty products, including brands such as Geox shoes, Gucci, Adidas and Adidas by Stella McCartney.
Later on came Nordstrom Rack, which made its Canadian debut in 2018 at Vaughan Mills, a mall north of Toronto. At the time, Nordstrom said as many as 15 more Rack locations could follow.
Nordstrom promised each Rack store would deliver savings of up to 70 per cent on apparel, accessories, home, beauty and travel items from 38 of the top 50 brands sold in its Canadian department stores.
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Nordstrom had trouble with profitability because of its selection of products and the COVID-19 pandemic, said Tamara Szames, executive director and industry adviser of Canadian retail at the NPD Group research firm, a day after Nordstrom announced its exit.
“You would hear a lot of Canadian saying that the assortment wasn’t the same in Canada that it was in the U.S.,” she said.
She noticed Nordstrom started to shift its product mix away from some luxury brands around 2018 and saw it as a sign that the retailer was struggling to maintain its original vision and integrity.
The pandemic made matters worse because many stores were forced to temporarily close their doors to quell the virus and shoppers were less likely to need some of the items Nordstrom sells like dressy apparel because events had been cancelled.
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Despite stores reopening and many sectors rebounding, Szames said the apparel business is the only industry NPD Group tracks that has yet to recover from the health crisis.
“The consumer has really been holding back in terms of spendâ¦within that industry.”
At a hearing at Osgoode Hall in Toronto, lawyer Jeremy Dacks, who represented Nordstrom, said the company has “worked hard to achieve a consensual path forward” with landlords, suppliers and a court-appointed monitor to find an orderly way to wind down the business.
The monitor, Alvarez & Marsal Canada, suggested five potential third-party liquidators and Nordstrom was approached by another five. The company decided to go with a joint venture comprised of Hilco Merchant Retail Solutions ULC and Gordon Brothers Canada, which were involved in the liquidation of Target, Sears and Forever 21 in Canada, Dacks said.
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They will oversee the sale of merchandise, furniture, fixtures and equipment, but not goods from third parties, which removed products this past weekend, Dacks said. He added that all sales will be final and no returns will be allowed.
Lawyers for Nordstrom landlords Cadillac Fairview, Ivanhoe Cambridge, Oxford Properties Ltd. and First Capital Realty testified Monday that they were pleased with how “smoothly” and “organized” the process has gone so far.
In approving Dacks’ liquidation request, Chief Justice Geoffrey Morawetz agreed, saying Nordstrom is facing a “difficult time, but this process is unfolding in a very cooperative manner.”
Nordstrom required court approval to begin the liquidation because it is winding down its Canadian operations under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act, which helps insolvent businesses restructure or end operations in an orderly fashion.
With files from Joanne Laucius
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High-end department store Nordstorm departing Canada, leaving anchor space in Rideau Centre vacant
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Deachman: I’m sorry, Nordstrom. I couldn’t afford you.
Canadian financial institutions’ regulator moved to reassure investors as the country’s riskiest bank debt joined a global selloff after the value of some Credit Suisse Group AG bonds was wiped out in the bank’s takeover by UBS Group AG.
Canada’s “capital regime preserves creditor hierarchy which helps to maintain financial stability,” the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions said in statement on its website.
Prices of Canadian limited recourse capital notes, known as LRCNs, fell between 2 cents and 5 cents on the dollar Monday before OSFI’s announcement, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named. That has widened the spread on the notes by over 60 basis points compared with Friday’s levels, the people said. Specific levels vary depending on the security.
The bonds are another form of so-called additional tier 1 securities, issued by financial institutions and designed to act as a shock absorber in the system. They can be converted to equity to bolster a bank’s capital if it runs into trouble.
Over the weekend, Swiss regulators triggered a complete writedown of 16 billion francs (US$17.2 billion) of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds as part of the rescue plan for the venerable bank. While it wasn’t a surprise that the bonds were likely to take a loss, some investors in the instruments were shocked to be wiped out when Credit Suisse’s shareholders were not.
Under Canada’s capital regime “additional tier 1 and tier 2 capital instruments to be converted into common shares in a manner that respects the hierarchy of claims in liquidation,” said OSFI, referring to a situation in which a bank would reach non-viability status. “Such a conversion ensures that additional tier 1 and tier 2 holders are entitled to a more favorable economic outcome than existing common shareholders who would be the first to suffer losses.”
“Our view is that we don’t expect LRCNs would be wiped out before common equity,” said Furaz Ahmad, a Toronto-based corporate debt strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “OSFI has said that they would convert to common equity, since that is more consistent with traditional insolvency norms and respects the expectations of all stakeholders.”
Earlier Monday, European authorities sought to restore investor confidence in banks’ AT1s by publicly stating that they should only face losses after shareholders are fully written down. AT1s from UBS Group and Deutsche Bank AG fell by more than 10 cents earlier on Monday.
- The tight supply narrative for 2023 is giving way to fears of a global economic slowdown.
- Goldman Sachs no longer expects Brent to hit $100 in the second half of 2023.
- CNBC: 41 percent of Americans are preparing for a recession.
Last week, oil prices booked their worst week since the start of the year, dropping off a cliff on renewed fears about the global economy after the collapse of two big U.S. banks and the near-collapse of Credit Suisse. While most price forecasts for the short term have been bullish because of pro-bullish oil fundamentals, now things are beginning to change. Tight supply, cited by virtually all forecasters as the main reason for oil price rise predictions, is giving way to fears of an economic slowdown that would dent demand and push prices lower.
Goldman Sachs has already revised its oil price forecast for the rest of the year. Previously expecting Brent to hit $100 in the second half, now the investment bank expects the international benchmark to only rise to $94 per barrel in the coming 12 months. For 2024, Goldman analysts see Brent crude at $97 per barrel.
“Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” Goldman said in a note last week, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.”
Indeed, as far as events go, this one left a serious scar. Brent crude went from over $80 per barrel to less than $75 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate slipped down close to $65 per barrel. And this happened while authoritative forecasters such as the IEA and OPEC recently said they expect stronger demand growth than supply growth.
Related: Humanity On Thin Ice, Says Latest UN Climate Report
According to a recent CNBC report, 41 percent of Americans are preparing for a recession and with a good reason. Despite seemingly endless media debates about whether the world’s largest economy is in a recession already, about to enter a recession, or will manage to avoid a recession, forecasts are not looking optimistic.
“What you’re really seeing is a significant tightening of financial conditions. What the markets are saying is this increases risks of a recession and rightfully so,” Jim Caron, head of macro strategy for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, told CNBC earlier this month.
“Equities are down. Bond yields are down. I think another question is: it looks like we’re pricing in three rate cuts, does that happen? You can’t rule it out,” Caron said.
Reuters’s market analyst John Kemp went further in January when he forecast that one way or another, there will be a global recession, and debates are basically pointless.
Citing the cyclical nature of economic growth, Kemp foresaw two likely scenarios: one, in which recession begins earlier in the year as a natural consequence of events from the last couple of years, and another, in which central bank-pumped growth leads to even higher inflation, which then leads to a slowdown amid lower consumption.
Whichever scenario pans out, if any, it will lead to lower oil demand as recessions normally do. And lower demand will naturally depress oil prices, albeit temporarily. Because lower prices tend to stimulate demand, even amid a recession.
But there is one important detail here. The recession forecasts focus on the UK, the EU, the U.S., and Canada, as well as Australia. There is zero talk about a recession in China or India. Because China and India are going to grow this year, and as they grow, they will consume more oil. Meanwhile, the supply of crude is not going anywhere much further, it seems.
Be that as it may, just because oil demand from China and India, but most notably China, is seen higher this year, it does not mean higher oil prices are all but guaranteed. That’s because China’s economy is very export-oriented, and when consumer countries are in a recession or anything resembling it, these exports will suffer.
Forecasts for Chinese oil demand are still at record highs this year. OPEC said it expected demand from the world’s biggest importer to add more than 700,000 bpd this year for a total of 15.56 million bpd. The IEA, for its part, forecast that demand growth from China will push the oil market into a deficit in the second half of the year. Yet if a recession here or there dampens demand for everything coming out of China, all bets are off.
Because of oil’s fundamentals, all price forecasts are for higher prices towards the end of the year. But the basis for these forecasts came before the bank failures and the bailout of Credit Suisse.
Perhaps the baking panic will let go soon enough, and everything, including oil demand outlooks, will return to normal. Or perhaps the banking panic is a harbinger of worse things to come—things that will affect demand for everything, from crude oil to iPhones. Collectively known as a recession, these things may well prompt some very different oil price forecasts later in the year.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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Irina Slav
Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.
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