Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in four runoff polls

Four polls released between Oct. 8 and Oct. 10 give Flávio Bolsonaro a lead of between four and six points over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the valid-vote count for Brazil’s presidential runoff on Oct. 25.

The surveys point the same way after a first round on Oct. 4 in which Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator, beat the polls. The Datafolha survey, commissioned by Folha and TV Globo, put him at 52 per cent to Lula’s 48 per cent of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots.

Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters on Oct. 6 and 7 and reported a margin of error of two percentage points, according to the Rio Times. Counting all answers, Bolsonaro had 49 per cent and Lula 45 per cent, with 5 per cent blank or spoiled and 1 per cent undecided. Folha called the result a technical tie at the edge of the margin, with the numbers pointing to a Bolsonaro edge, the Rio Times reported.

PoderData/Aya, released Oct. 8, had Bolsonaro at 53 per cent and Lula at 47 per cent, from 3,000 phone interviews on Oct. 5 to 7 with a margin of error of 1.8 points, Poder360 reported. Ipespe/Abrapel, released Oct. 10, had 52.7 per cent to 47.3 per cent from 1,500 interviews on Oct. 6 to 8, with a margin of error of 2.6 points. Poder360 also cited an AtlasIntel survey released Oct. 9 at 52.8 per cent to 47.2 per cent. That figure comes from a single outlet and has not been confirmed here.

The Rio Times reported that Bolsonaro leads in the south, at 58 per cent to Lula’s 35 per cent, and in the southeast, at 50 per cent to 42 per cent. Lula leads in the northeast, at 61 per cent to 35 per cent. Evangelical Christians, who make up 28 per cent of the electorate, favour Bolsonaro 69 per cent to 25 per cent, while the poorest 47 per cent of voters favour Lula 52 per cent to 41 per cent.

The Rio Times said 46 per cent of voters told Datafolha they would never vote for Lula and 43 per cent said the same of Bolsonaro. Voters who backed the four main eliminated candidates split 46 per cent for Bolsonaro, 32 per cent for Lula and 15 per cent blank or spoiled.

Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, said he does not assess polls. “The only way to win an election is by winning votes,” he said, according to the Rio Times. Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Polls have misjudged this race before. Datafolha’s last first-round survey, published Oct. 3, had Lula at 45 per cent and Bolsonaro at 42 per cent of valid votes. The official count gave Bolsonaro 47.03 per cent and Lula 45.16 per cent, a gap of about 2.2 million votes. In 2022, Lula opened the runoff at 53 per cent to 47 per cent in Datafolha and won by 1.8 points, the Rio Times said.

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Our earlier report on the first-round result has the full vote and congressional breakdown. The Rio Times had listed the first television debate of the runoff for Oct. 11, but no report of it had been confirmed at the time of writing. Voting on Oct. 25 runs from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, and the winner is due to be inaugurated on Jan. 5, 2027. This story is developing.

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Via the Rio Times and Poder360. Datafolha and PoderData figures appear in both outlets.