Global stocks staged a ferocious rebound from the war-induced rout, with European equities notching the biggest rally since the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and U.S. shares jumping the most intraday since November of that year. Oil sank more than 10% and Treasuries dropped.
Dip buyers powered the S&P 500 up almost 3% and Germany’s DAX Index to an eye-popping 7.9% surge on speculation that two weeks of selling amply reflected the global economic impact of escalating sanctions on Russia. Oil slid below $110 a barrel in New York and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 1.9%.
Still, the rallies managed to claw back only some of the losses incurred since Russia invaded Ukraine. The DAX had plunged into a bear market earlier this week, while the S&P 500 is still sitting 10% below where it started the year. West Texas crude has added almost $20 a barrel in two weeks, and other commodities from nickel to wheat remain near historically high prices.
The risk-on rally is the latest wild ride for markets have been roiled by fears of a global inflation shock from a commodity-price rally fueled by Russia’s isolation, while supply disruptions threaten to usher in a period of slower global growth. Sentiment was lifted Wednesday after a top foreign policy aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the country is open to discussing Russia’s demand of neutrality as long as it’s given security guarantees.
“Risk markets are higher today, suggesting traders are no longer in flight mode and are starting to think about value again,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. “That doesn’t mean volatility is over. Economic consequences, macro and micro, are still in flux. The West is still working on sanctions for Russian energy, and the duration and outcome of the war is still a big unknown.”
The rally in U.S. stocks Wednesday comes on the 13th anniversary since the S&P 500 bottomed out following the financial crisis. The gauge has climbed more than 500% in this bull market, with an annual return of about 15%.
Russian forces intensified their bombardment of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, the U.S. said. The Russian stock market’s trading halt is being extended in an effort to keep prices from tumbling in the wake of vast international sanctions.
Meanwhile, Coca-Cola Co. joined McDonald’s Corp., Starbucks Corp. and a host of other companies in suspending Russia operations in protest at the war. Fitch Ratings cut Russia’s credit rating and said a bond default is “imminent.”
Oil tumbled as the U.A.E. and Iraq signaled OPEC may have greater willingness to raise output. Crude has posted huge intraday swings in recent days as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens a major global supply shock. Declines in crude and gas Wednesday are reversing some of the main trades seen since war broke out.
“What we’re seeing today is a lot of focus on commodity prices,” Michelle Cluver, associate portfolio strategist at Global X, said in a phone interview. “We are also seeing, especially with what’s happened with banning energy imports from Russia, the question about economic growth increasingly coming to the forefront.”
Commodity costs underline the inflation challenge and growth dilemma facing central banks. The European Central Bank meeting Thursday may reflect caution as the war on Ukraine has upended the continent’s economic outlook, while bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike have been scaled back over the past few weeks, with a quarter point now widely expected. Still, with U.S. inflation data due Thursday set to capture prewar prices, economists are now saying it could peak somewhere in the 8%-9% range this month or next.
Commodities broadly pulled back from highs, with gold dropping from a 19-month high on improved risk sentiment. Bullion is still up 9% this year as investors seek a hedge against the threat of an inflationary shock.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin jumped above $42,000 amid a sharp rally in digital tokens, spurred by optimism about an impending U.S. overhaul of crypto oversight that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called “historic.”
For more markets news, follow our Markets Live blog.
Here are some key events this week:
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde briefing after policy meeting, Thursday
- U.S. CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Some of the main moves in markets:
- The S&P 500 rose 2.9% as of 3:25 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.8%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%
- The MSCI World index rose 2.9%
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1%
- The euro rose 1.6% to $1.1074
- The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3185
- The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 115.81 per dollar
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 1.93%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 0.22%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 1.53%
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11% to $109.65 a barrel
- Gold futures fell 2.3% to $1,996.30 an ounce–With assistance from Akshay Chinchalkar, Sharon Cho, Andreea Papuc, Srinivasan Sivabalan and Peyton Forte.
As interest in electric vehicles soars, experts say they haven't quite hit the mainstream – CBC.ca
When a friend told Seymore Applebaum about the efficiency of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, he was intrigued.
Applebaum, who lives north of Toronto, was in the market for a new car. While safety features were top of mind, the high cost of gasoline couldn’t be ignored.
So in January, he traded in his sedan for a brand-new plug-in hybrid (PHEV), a vehicle that can run on both electricity and gasoline. Applebaum says he can travel almost 50 kilometres on battery power alone — more than enough to get around the city.
On a recent trip downtown, he recalled, “I drove about 45 kilometres … and the only thing I used was the electric motor and the electric battery that runs the car.”
“Normally, on a day like that, [it] would be comparable to $10, $15 of driving cost.”
Automotive industry analysts say rising gas prices have more consumers looking into electrified and electric vehicles (EVs).
Prices at the pump have soared across Canada in recent weeks. Estimates suggest Vancouver could see the country’s highest prices this weekend, potentially hitting $2.34 per litre for regular fuel. According to fuel price tracker GasBuddy, the national average as of Sunday afternoon was just below $1.98 per litre.
“Canadians are motivated by high fuel prices, but they truly believe this is the new normal,” said Peter Hatges, national automotive sector leader for KPMG in Canada, pointing a recent survey by the consulting group.
“When consumers believe it or perceive it to be true, they’re going to modify their behaviour around what kind of vehicles they buy.”
Kevin Roberts, director of industry insights and analytics for U.S.-based online vehicle marketplace CarGurus, told Cross Country Checkup he has seen a similar trend.
“As gas prices went up, interest in electric vehicles went up almost in lockstep with just a couple of days delay for both new and used vehicles,” he said.
But even as interest in electrified cars spikes, experts say too few options — and too high prices — mean they haven’t quite hit the mainstream.
Where consumers in North America favour larger vehicles like SUVs and pickup trucks known for their utility, EVs tend to come in compact or sedan-style models. EV range — and the availability of chargers — are also considerations for many Canadians, said Hatges.
Ramp up production
Big investments into electrification by major automotive makers, however, are beginning to bear fruit.
A greater variety of models and sizes are coming onto the market in the coming years, the analysts say. Battery life is improving too, with several models able to travel more than 400 kilometres on a charge, according to manufacturer estimates.
“It’s absolutely a tipping point,” said Hatges. “I think there’s a confluence of factors that are pointing toward an alternative to the internal combustion engine.”
The big test for consumers will be whether manufacturers can cut prices enough to get customers in the showroom — and EVs on the road — said Grieg Mordue, associate professor and ArcelorMittal chair in advanced manufacturing policy at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ont.
While a handful of models start below $50,000, many run far north of that figure with some selling for over $100,000.
The sweet spot for Canadian buyers? Between $35,000 and $45,000, says Mordue. Key to hitting that price point is mass production, he added.
“We need production in North America of vehicles at that level, and we need high-volume vehicles — not little, niche vehicles where they sell 10,000 or 15,000 of them a year — because that’s a lot of the vehicles that we have now, Tesla notwithstanding,” Mordue told Checkup.
In April, GM announced a $2-billion investment, with support from the Ontario and federal governments, which will see electric vehicles rolling off assembly lines in Oshawa and Ingersoll, Ont., as early as this year.
Stellantis, which owns brands including Dodge and Jeep, is similarly investing billions into electrification at its Windsor and Brampton, Ont., plants.
Mordue cautions, however, that as plants begin producing electric models, it will take time for them to reach the existing output of gas-powered vehicles.
Focus on fuel efficiency
While interest in EVs may be gearing up, Hatges predicts a shift for gas-powered vehicles too.
“I think you’ll see a strive to make cars lighter, more fuel efficient, even when it comes to electricity,” he said. “Heavy vehicles use more power to power themselves down the road, whether it’s electricity or fuel.”
And as long as gas prices stay high, the market could see a shift from SUVs and trucks — which consumers and manufacturers have favoured in recent years — to gas-sipping models.
“We have a fascination with pickup trucks and SUVs, North Americans do, and there’s a lot of them on the road now…. I don’t see that changing any time soon,” he said.
“But in the medium term or in the immediate term, will you see a shift or reconsideration of cars that are more fuel efficient? I think so. The price in the pump is very, very significant.”
Applebaum touted the flexibility of a plug-in hybrid, saying he doesn’t worry about range at all. And though his PHEV cost more than a comparable non-electrified model, trading in his previous vehicle combined with the fuel savings over three to four years made it affordable, he said.
With gas prices now higher than they were in January, “that’s even more true,” he told Checkup.
Now, he says friends are taking notice.
“They’re saying the next car they purchase will be an electric car.”
Written by Jason Vermes with files from Abby Plener.
Gas prices reach another record in the GTA after six cents per litre increase overnight – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News
Gas prices have reached yet another new record after rising six cents per litre overnight.
As of midnight the average price of a litre of fuel across the Greater Toronto Area is now 208.9 cents per litre, according to Canadians for Affordable Energy President Dan McTeague.
The latest jump means that gas prices have now risen 11 cents per litre since Friday, with no real relief in sight due to supply shortages brought about by Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine and the international sanctions that have been imposed a result.
“When you look at the fundamentals, supply and demand for diesel and for gasoline going into the summer driving season, not only is it low or critically low and that is one of the main reasons why prices are going up but the second factor is the Canadian dollar,” McTeague told CP24 last week. “It continues to show weakness despite the fact that in the old good old days when oil was $100 a barrel we would be on par with the U.S. dollar. The fact that we’re not is costing you 33 cents a litre.”
Gas prices have risen by about 60 per cent since last May, when drivers were paying around $1.30 per litre to fill up.
Baby formula shortage: Canada's current situation – CTV News
A major infant formula recall by the U.S. manufacturer of Similac has exacerbated ongoing pandemic-related supply issues for some Canadian retailers, according to the Retail Council of Canada, while other stores have generally been able to keep shelves stocked, with shortages mostly temporary.
A number of powdered Similac products were recalled in February when four babies in the U.S. became very sick with a bacterial infection after consuming formula made at an Abbott Nutrition facility in Michigan. Two of the four hospitalized infants died. The plant was closed while the U.S. Food and Safety Administration (FDA) investigated.
The company, the largest manufacturer of infant formula in the U.S., said in a statement that “there is no evidence to link our formulas to these infant illnesses”. The plant remains shut for the investigation, however, and U.S. retail tracking company Datasembly said the out-of-stock percentage for baby formula in the U.S. reached 43 per cent for the first week of May.
While Canadian retailers have generally not experienced the bare shelves seen in many U.S. stores so far, some Canadian parents are nonetheless concerned about any potential impact, particularly as a number of products are specialty formulas made for infants with special dietary requirements.
“Some retailers that I have spoken to have seen an impact since last year because of those global supply chain challenges. But it’s definitely become considerably worse since the production facility closure and product recall,” said Michelle Wasylyshen, the national spokesperson for the Retail Council of Canada, in a phone interview on Friday.
Other retailers saw less of an impact, she said.
“The majority of that section within their stores, the baby formula is stocked. If there are any outages or shortages on the shelves, they should be temporary in nature for the most part.”
Wasylyshen said there was no clear answer on whether supply issues were regional because grocery retailers use different supply chains within the country and even within a province and there are different types of agreements and suppliers as well.
Walmart Canada told CTVNews.ca that there have been numerous ongoing global, industry-wide supply challenges with baby formula that have persisted for years and that it continued to work closely with its suppliers.
“Despite these challenges, including the most recent brand recall … [we] have secured a strong supply of baby formula across multiple brands and formats (concentrates, powder and ready-to-feed), to make available for sale both in-store and online,” said spokesperson Felicia Fefer in an email on Friday.
Costco and two of Canada’s three major grocery chains, Loblaws and Sobeys, had yet to respond at the time of publication. Metro declined to comment, saying the issue was not Metro specific.
STORE BRANDS, HEALTH CANADA ORDER HELPING
Despite concerns, there are differences between Canada and the U.S. that have helped diffuse some of the impact so far, Wasylyshen said.
All major grocery chains in Canada have strong “private label” or house brands, including for the infant formula category, she noted. While some of these store-brand versions of formula may also be manufactured by the same company as the major labels, most are sourced from competitors, giving shoppers more alternative options and preventing a two-fold impact.
In addition, Health Canada also approved an interim policy that temporarily allows other infant formula brands from the U.S., U.K., Ireland, and Germany to be imported into Canada. The policy is meant to “help prevent and mitigate shortages of these products in Canada in relation to the temporary closure of a large manufacturing plant in the United States, while ensuring a safe supply of these products to the vulnerable Canadians that rely on them” the document states.
The policy, which is in effect until June 30, also notes that safety assessments have been conducted by Health Canada for each product included in the list.
“Health Canada reviews infant formula submissions from manufacturers, including labelling and compositional requirements, before infant formula is sold in Canada,” Health Canada spokesperson Marie-Pier Burelle said in an email to CTVNews.ca on Friday.
“The products listed in Appendix A of the interim policy are imported from countries that have similar regulatory standards to Canada and are safe to use. These products would not normally be on the Canadian market because Health Canada has not received a request from manufacturers to conduct a pre-market regulatory review.”
The products might not meet some requirements like French and English labelling, for example, Wasylyshen said.
“They’re all still products that are safe and that are regulated, it’s just now they’re being temporarily allowed into Canada until we get a little bit more stability with the system,” she said, adding that this has been done in the past in situations where delivery of essential supplies was hampered.
CASCADING SUPPLY ISSUES
Ongoing global supply chain issues during the pandemic was already an issue prior to the recall, including global shortages of raw ingredients that go into making baby formula, Wasylyshen said. But complicating the current situation is that other suppliers are now beginning to experience issues due to the increased demand in other products that are available.
“It’s not a big problem yet, but the longer that we continue to see the Abbott shortage or Abbott products missing from the shelves, other suppliers could experience additional problems within a month or two – perhaps by summer, so that’s certainly something that we’ll want to keep our eye on.”
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