Coronavirus impact: 5 dos and don'ts to protect your investment portfolio in a bear market – Economic Times

For the first time in a decade, Indian investors are witnessing a full-blown bear market. The frontline BSE Sensex index has tanked 30% from its January peak. The earlier crash had seen the index lose 60% of its value. Investors are worried how big the cut will be this time and how they can protect their finances. While the reasons for stock market crashes vary every time, the basic tenets of surviving these events remain the same. If you follow the principles outlined below, you should be able to safely manoeuvre your finances through this challenging phase.

What to do

Create a financial cushion
Since severe bear markets are usually accompanied by crippling economic downturns, they can wreak havoc on your finances. Retrenchments, salary cuts or delays in payout are inevitable outcomes of a sputtering economy. Be prepared for the worst. Before you think of making moves in your portfolio, arm yourself with adequate buffer. “A prolonged bear market not only drags down returns but can hurt incomes too. It is prudent to have sufficient buffer for such an eventuality,” says Tarun Birani, Founder and Director, TBNG Capital Advisors.

Build a contingency fund to cover at least 6 months’ expenses. This way you will not be forced to dip into your retirement savings in a cash crunch. Prableen Bajpai, Founder and Managing Partner, FinFix Research & Analytics, suggests clearing pending dues immediately. “If you have cash, personal loan or card dues should be paid off before any investment,” she says.

Reassess risk tolerance
You think you understand your risk taking ability? If you assessed your risk tolerance during sunnier days, chances are you assessed wrong. During good times, we tend to be complacent and have misplaced notions about how much downside we can withstand. Finding yourself in the grips of a bear market will upend any haughty notions you may have about your risk appetite. It is in this situation that you must ideally revisit your risk profile. It will yield a more accurate reading. “If you are severely uncomfortable now, perhaps you have been taking more risk than you can realistically handle,” points out Rohit Shah, Founder, Getting You Rich. More importantly, remember to adhere to this version of your risk profile when the next bull market sweeps you off your feet.

Longer you wait for market recovery, further behind you will fall
A study found that stocks generate their biggest gains in the first 12 months of a recovery, and that missing even the first month of gains after the market hits bottom leads to substantially lower returns over time.

Data analyzes the five periods from 1970 through 2017 during which S&P500 fell by 20% or more. Source: Schwab Centre for Financial Research and Morningstar


Keep the war chest ready
When it comes to deploying money, investors get cold feet in a full-blown bear market. Even when the market recovers, they hesitate to get back onto the saddle. It is only when the market recovers fully that investors realise that they missed the bus. So, the longer you remain on the sidelines, the further behind you find yourself when the market recovers
(see table). At some point, you should start making a staggered entry. However, for this you need to have surplus cash in hand.

Be ready to put your money to work quickly. “If you have money you can afford to invest with a long-term view, this point in the market may pose a good opportunity. Invest in tranches,” suggests Suresh Sadagopan, Founder, Ladder7 Financial Advisories. Identify that part of your portfolio that can be liquidated to give you the necessary arsenal. For instance, some of your existing debt funds can be used to provide cash flow. Consider initiating a STP from the debt fund into an equity fund over 6-12 months. Hemant Rustagi, CEO, Wiseinvest Advisors, feels this is the time to deploy a lump sum in phases apart from existing SIP commitments. “You don’t get to see such steep cuts often. Investors should make the most of it,” he says.

Stick to fundamentals

While the root of the current crash is not economic, the upheavals it will bring will play out similar to previous crises. In bad times, typically fundamentally strong businesses sail through. While these do get rocked, they are able to plough through and reach the shore safely even as weaker businesses sink. Better run companies will be able to withstand the turbulence and bounce back quickly. It makes sense to stick with proven businesses now. Do not be adventurous and bet on relatively unknown businesses. “Stick with quality names and avoid aggressive bets at this stage,” says Shah.

Intermittent rebounds in a bear market can fool you into believing the worst is over
Instead of trying to time the market, investors should look at staggering their entry into the market over 6-12 months.

Buying the dips can also backfire spectacularly during a bear market
If you try bottom fishing—deploying money at a perceived market low— chances are you will burn your fingers badly.

Compiled by ETIG Database

Get that financial plan in place

Investing should never be guided by specific moments; it should be a part of a process over time. If you are like most investors, chances are you have been randomly accumulating investments for your portfolio without a clearly defined purpose for each rupee invested. In the absence of a plan, there is a greater risk that you will make rash decisions about your portfolio during a market upheaval. You may end up liquidating long-term investments that would jeopardise goals far on the horizon.

If you don’t have a long-term financial plan, creating one—and sticking to it—is the best action you could take at this time. “This is a ripe time to have your health check-up done and get clarity on your financial goals,” insists Birani. Consider engaging the services of a good adviser for this purpose.

How previous two bear markets shaped up

Market exhibited prolonged weakness even after 2000 bear run, but gained sharply after 2008 sell-off.

2000

Start date: 11 Feb 2000

End date: 18 Oct 2000

Decline: -39.4%

No. of trading days: 171


2008

Start date: 8 Jan 2008

End date: 9 Mar 2009

Decline: -60.9%

No. of trading days: 286

What not to do

Don’t try to catch market bottom
It is any investor’s dream to identify the time when the stock market is about to hit the bottom of its downturn phase. Nothing is more rewarding than being able to ride the recovery to the fullest. But market tops and bottoms are only clear in hindsight. If you try bottom fishing—deploying money at a perceived market low—chances are you will burn your fingers badly. It is alright if you miss the precise point when the market touches bottom. You can position yourself even after the market makes a move upwards.

Do not commit your cash in one shot. A staggered entry spread over several months is ideal. You may not be able to capture the swing in its entirety, but will avoid getting whipsawed by sucker rallies. Says Bajpai, “It’s crucial to stick to asset allocation and rebalance one’s portfolio instead of calling a market bottom.”

Even if long-term SIP has fetched poor returns, stay committed
Past data shows that if you continued your SIPs for a bit longer, your returns would have been signifi cantly better.

Source: FundsIndia Research


Don’t review funds now
If you find yourself looking at your portfolio value daily, stop now. Finding your portfolio take a knock every day will lead you to question your investing choices. You will start finding fault in individual bets. Avoid reviewing your portfolio at this point so as not to form a misguided opinion. “Do not look at portfolio performance for the next few months,” advises Birani.

Most of your equity funds will seem like a horrible choice whereas the gold fund will look like the best decision ever. You may be tempted to pull out of equity funds and redirect the money into gold or stay in cash. Any review you undertake at this stage should be purely from an asset allocation perspective. If the asset mix has changed substantially from desired levels, rebalance portfolio to its original shape. Leave the microscopic review for later. “Do not exit for lack of return. Do it if your asset mix warrants rebalancing,” says Shah.

Don’t change investing strategy
Don’t try your hand at a new investing approach in the midst of a bear market. If you are a different investor today than what you were before the bear market started, you are not doing it right. It is during a bear market that investors shift strategy. Overwhelmed by panic, they are prone to abandon years of investing principles. For instance, investors following a focused strategy may suddenly start diversifying to the extreme. This fickle nature undermines long-term strategy which may come in the way of achieving longer term goals.

In past crashes, recovery time was varied

In 2000, it took 806 days, while in 2008, Sensex recovered ground in 411 days.

Don’t get overly defensive
After seeing relentless erosion in the market, you might want to throw in the towel and turn ultra-cautious. Do not succumb and press the panic button. “Avoid rash decisions and exiting an investment mid-way. Doing so turns the whole exercise of investing futile, ending in a bad investing experience,” says Bajpai. If the market is down 25% in a month, it doesn’t mean that in four more months you will have lost everything.

Sure, you can go 100% into cash now. This way you are secured for the rest of the bear market. But when do you get back in? By the time you firm up the resolve to do so, the market may have moved on. Opportunities abound when there is panic, but you can’t benefit from them if you are storing money under the mattress. Sadagopan argues, “Do not withdraw from equity thinking that when the markets starts to recover you will put it back. It is very difficult for anyone to predict when the markets will recover and when it does, human psychology will prevent us from getting back in.”

Some may try to reduce risk by spreading their money across multiple companies, sectors and asset classes. This may help you temporarily arrest the downside and cushion your portfolio. But overdoing it will prevent you from gaining meaningfully when the market recovers. Markets tend to move in cycles. Bear markets follow bulls and bulls follow bears. When everyone expects the worst, that’s usually about the time markets turn around.

Don’t do nothing at all
An oft-repeated advice during a bear market is to ‘play dead’ or do nothing. Essentially, you let your investments run and don’t tinker with your portfolio. This advice may not be suited for all. Actually, how aloof you remain should be guided by your age or time horizon for each invested rupee. For younger investors, who would not need the money for at least 8-10 years are indeed better off doing nothing—at least to the extent that you remain calm throughout. “Continue with your investment process. But make sure you realign your portfolio when required,” insists Rustagi.

However, if you are only years away from retirement or otherwise need to draw money within the next few years, doing nothing would be harmful. It means you are willing to accept all the risk of the market at a critical juncture. Equity markets can take years to fully recover. Keep any money you need in the next five years out of the stock markets.

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