NBC: Democrats win U.S. House; what it means for Canada

Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, NBC News projected Tuesday night, a result that bears directly on the tariffs and trade talks Canada is working through with the Trump administration. NBC based the call on its estimate that Democrats will take about 248 of the 435 seats, well above the 218 needed, and said the figure could still move by a few seats. CBC News reported that three U.S. networks have projected the same outcome.

The Associated Press had not called House control as of its update at about 12:40 a.m. ET on Wednesday, saying the chamber remained too early to call. The AP said it declares a winner only once a party reaches 218 called seats, and that it took eight days to do so after the 2022 and 2024 elections. AP reported that Democrats had flipped seven Republican-held seats so far and needed a net gain of three for a majority. The AP and NBC News have both reported that Democrats won control of the Senate; see our separate report on the Senate result and what it means for Canada.

For Canada, the first question is tariffs. CBC reported that Democrats’ early targets, according to U.S. news outlets, include taking down President Donald Trump’s tariffs. As we reported before the vote, CTV analyst Eric Ham wrote that Democrats have pledged to rescind Trump’s tariffs and trade authorities, but that overriding a veto would need two-thirds of both chambers, which he called “practically impossible.” CBC likewise noted that Democrats would still need the president’s signature to turn bills into law. NBC reported that restoring Congress’s authority over tariffs is one of four priorities House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has named, along with reversing Medicaid cuts, extending Affordable Care Act credits and stopping the war with Iran.

The trade talks are already moving. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday in Antigua that Canada and the U.S. have made progress, with Washington “asking less and offering more,” though “we’re not quite there,” CBC reported. Carney said talks that collapsed in August have since become “more intense,” and that two U.S. positions Canada had opposed, one on French-language content rules and one on Canada’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries, are now off the table. CBC said autos are expected to remain a key sticking point, and that Carney plans to meet Trump at the APEC summit in China later this month. U.S. tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles and parts would rise to 50 per cent if there is no deal by January 2027, CTV reported, and officials had said no deal was expected before the midterms. Trump told Fox News on Tuesday that his administration was nearing a trade agreement with Canada, CBC reported.

We did not find a published Canadian government reaction to the House projection as of 10:59 p.m. ET. A new House majority would not take office until Jan. 3, when NBC says Jeffries is expected to be sworn in as the first Black House speaker, so the new majority will not have power over tariffs while the current Congress sits.

NBC said the result is widely seen as a referendum on Trump’s policies, including tariffs on U.S. allies that it said drove up the price of gas and groceries. With the majority, Democrats gain committee control and subpoena power, NBC reported. Republican Speaker Mike Johnson’s future as party leader is unclear, according to NBC.

Canada News Media is following the Senate count in its main results story, which we will keep updating. All projections are preliminary and could change as votes are counted.

Photo: House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., gives encouragement to volunteers at a phone bank on Capitol Hill in Washington on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

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