Cap Friendly has been overrun with Leafs fans this weekend as reports indicate contract negotiations between the Alex Pietrangelo and the St. Louis Blues have deteriorated. It’s becoming more and more likely Pietrangelo will enter free agency on October 9th, with the Toronto Maple Leafs deeply interested. If the improbable happens and he signs, I just want to say that Justin Faulk will never pay for a drink in the GTA ever again.
In the grand scheme of things, the odds Pietrangelo signs on the virtual dotted line in October are low. The Blues can cave in at any moment and give into his contract demands, another team could come in with a better offer, or a meteor could smash into the Earth (we’re on pace for one before the end of September at the rate 2020 is going).
But what if he does? What will the Leafs need to do in order to ice a salary cap compliant and competitive team for next season?
What doesn’t need to happen: Trading Frederik Andersen
The Leafs goalie situation is, for the most part, independent of finding the cap space for Pietrangelo. If the Leafs do make a trade for someone like Matt Murray, Darcy Kuemper, Alexander Georgiev, or sign Robin Lehner, the team’s cap space will go up or down, but it won’t be done because the Leafs need the space. It’ll be because Kyle Dubas pulled the trigger on a goalie for the medium term so he didn’t have to deal with it next season when Andersen is a free agent.
Trading for a cheaper goalie would make signing Pietrangelo easier, as they’ll be able to keep one of their middle-class contracts, but it’s not necessary. Plus, personally, spending more on a more proven starting goalie is more valuable than an average 3C, especially on this team.
What does need to happen: Trading Andreas Johnsson
This move is almost a given if the Leafs are interested in acquiring any defenseman of merit onto the team. Andreas Johnsson simply does not move the needle enough on a team needs as much bang for their buck when it comes to offense beyond the top-four. Ilya Mikheyev has seemingly passed him by on the left side, Nick Robertson is blazing towards doing the same. As a winger, he just doesn’t provide enough.
I don’t think there’s much debate on this topic from the community from what I’ve seen.
What doesn’t need to happen: Trading Morgan Rielly
The money doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t need to happen. The Leafs don’t have someone on the right side who can play the minutes Rielly does and provide the elite puck-moving offense from the defense. Offensively, he can’t realistically be replaced. Where Rielly has lacked statistically, it’s been defensively next to a crop of some of the worst defensive players in the league during Rielly’s time in it. Ron Hainsey was the best one, and replacing him with Alex Pietrangelo has a strong chance of creating an elite top pair this team needs.
Give this pair two seasons together and let’s see what they can do. And at the end of it all, the Leafs will be out of Phil Kessel’s retained salary and Jack Campbell’s contract, giving them adequate space to give Rielly a respectable couple million dollars raise. He won’t command more than Pietrangelo (reportedly in the $8-9 million range) and that’s something the Leafs can do, even under a flat cap. and if the Leafs need to choose between Rielly and an aged Jake Muzzin, they can spend the assets and move Muzzin out too.
There are options for the Leafs to have their Rielly cake (phrasing) and eat it too. It doesn’t need to be solved right now.
Breathe, Rielly is staying.
What does* need to happen: Trading Alex Kerfoot * probably
I’ve laid out a scenario for the Leafs below to sign Pietrangelo and fill out their roster using internal RFAs and trading both Johnsson and Kerfoot for picks or prospects. I have no idea what the return for those players will be — especially if here are signed skaters coming back — but it’ll definitely look something like this.
And the cap hit proof. There’s actually a fair amount left to wiggle on salary negotiations or even get a legit 3C in Johan Larsson for a couple mil. pic.twitter.com/KHrHQOHWQr
With Kerfoot, there is a tiny bit of space that could be made to keep him on the team for a second season. It would require a major squeeze to the likes of RFAs Ilya Mikheyev, Evan Rodrigues. and Travis Dermott (who I will get to later) and likely the trading of Pierre Engvall. All of those things are difficult and cruel, but those players are replaceable for the most part. I think it’s worthwhile to try, but it would be very hard and callous. Brigstew has an article coming out on this that I won’t spoil, but replacing Kerfoot for cheap is a very reasonable proposition (spoiler above).
What Kerfoot doesn’t do is provide enough value on the third line to downgrade top of the lineup players like Andersen, Rielly, or even Zach Hyman. On the ladder of expendable players on the Leafs, Kerfoot and his contract is at the bottom of that group making $2-6 million. Maybe Justin Holl gets bumped for Dermott, that could be very possible.
There are a lot of different avenues the Leafs can take to ice a competitive lineup next season bolstered by one of the top defensemen in the world, however none of them require a major piece to be news. No offense to Andreas and Alexander.
Top Heavy
If the improbable does happen and the above moves do need to happen, the Leafs will finally be what they’ve been accused of by so many people: top heavy. They’ll have two elite forward lines, one elite defense pair, and hopefully a top-10 goalie in Frederik Andersen (at least for this year). The defense will finally look respectable after decades of being bottom-10 in the league, I think I quite like all three pairings (plus whoever else they have as a scratch or on the Marlies. The bottom-six is where they’ll be weakest.
Unless the Leafs can get above-expected seasons from some of their players — Robertson gets old and better, Engvall gets out of his shooting bender, and Alexander Barabanov becomes a worthwhile middle-six player — the third and fourth lines will basically be two fourth lines. Similar to what the Marlies did, I wouldn’t mind an offensively focused and a defensively focused group to maximize both units.
I don’t know if I trust the Leafs top two lines to carry the team every night, but they’ll have to if this is the way the Leafs go in this direction. It’s risky and scary, but it also gets you Alex Pietrangelo. Is that worth it?
The past weekend of football was all about the favourites.
The favoured teams went 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in the NFL. In college football, the three most teams bet at the BetMGM Sportsbook in terms of number of bets and money all won and covered. All three were favourites.
Trends of the Week
The three most bet college teams that won and covered on Saturday were Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Penn State, Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State and Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan. Penn State has now lost seven straight home games as underdogs. The Nittany Lions were up 10-0 in the first quarter and were 3.5-point favourites at the time. The Buckeyes won 17-10.
In the NFL, the three most bet teams in terms of number of bets and money were the Washington Commanders (-4) at the New York Giants, the Detroit Lions (-2.5) at the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. the Miami Dolphins. All three teams won, but only two of the three covered the spread as Buffalo beat Miami 30-27.
When it came to the players with the most bets to score a touchdown on Sunday, only two of the five reached the end zone — Chase Brown (-125) and Taysom Hill (+185). David Montgomery (-140), Brian Robinson Jr. (+110) and AJ Barner (+500) did not score.
Upsets of the Week
The biggest upset in the NFL was the Carolina Panthers coming from behind to beat the New Orleans Saints 23-22. New Orleans closed as a 7-point favourite and took in 76% of the bets and 79% of the money in against-the-spread betting. The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen following the loss. They have now lost seven straight games after starting the year 2-0.
Arguably the biggest upset in college football was South Carolina beating No. 10 Texas A&M 44-20 at home. Texas A&M closed as a 2.5-point favourite and took in 59% of the bets and 58% of the money.
NEW YORK – Washington Capitals left-wing Alex Ovechkin, Carolina Hurricanes centre Martin Necas and Pittsburgh Penguins centre Sidney Crosby have been named the NHL’s three stars of the week.
Ovechkin had a league-leading five goals and nine points in four games.
The 39-year-old Capitals captain has 14 points in 11 games this season, and his 860 career goals are just 34 shy of Wayne Gretzky’s record.
Necas shared the league lead with nine points (three goals, six assists) in three games.
Crosby factored on seven of the Penguins’ eight total goals scoring four goals and adding three assists in three appearances. The 37-year-old Penguins captain leads his team with 14 points (five goals, nine assists) in 13 games this season.
Crosby and Ovechkin, longtime rivals since entering the league together in 2005-06, will meet for the 70th time in the regular season and 95th time overall when Pittsburgh visits Washington on Friday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
TORONTO – Running back Brady Oliveira of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell are the finalists for the CFL’s outstanding player award.
Oliveira led the CFL in rushing this season with 1,353 yards while Mitchell was the league leader in passing yards (5,451) and touchdowns (32).
Oliveira is also the West Division finalist for the CFL’s top Canadian award, the second straight year he’s been nominated for both.
Oliveira was the CFL’s outstanding Canadian in 2023 and the runner-up to Toronto Argonauts quarterback Chad Kelly for outstanding player.
Defensive lineman Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund of the Montreal Alouettes is the East Division’s top Canadian nominee.
Voting for the awards is conducted by the Football Reporters of Canada and the nine CFL head coaches.
The other award finalists include: defensive back Rolan Milligan Jr. of the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal linebacker Tyrice Beverette (outstanding defensive player); Saskatchewan’s Logan Ferland and Toronto’s Ryan Hunter (outstanding lineman); B.C. Lions kicker Sean Whyte and Toronto returner Janarion Grant (special teams); and Edmonton Elks linebacker Nick Anderson and Hamilton receiver Shemar Bridges (outstanding rookie).
The coach of the year finalists are Saskatchewan’s Corey Mace and Montreal’s Jason Maas.
The CFL will honour its top individual performers Nov. 14 in Vancouver.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31.
