A former head of Vanguard Canada has applied to regulators to launch what he calls Canada’s first investment dealer focused solely on prediction markets, according to a BetaKit report published Oct. 2, 2026.
Atul Tiwari, who helped build Vanguard’s Canadian ETF business and later BMO’s, is founder and CEO of Verdx, BetaKit reported. His co-founders are Jim Andriopoulos, who has a CFO background, and Michael Williams, who previously held chief compliance and risk roles at Richardson Wealth and HSBC. The company has sought registration with Canadian securities regulators and plans to operate as an order-execution-only dealer, meaning it would carry out client trades without giving investment advice.
“Prediction markets aggregate disparate views and probabilities to create one market price to trade on,” Tiwari told BetaKit.
Verdx would enter a market that Canadian regulators have fenced in tightly. In a March 27, 2026 bulletin, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) said dealers must notify it in writing before offering event contracts, according to Advisor.ca. Contracts must run at least 30 days, and clients cannot use leverage or margin to buy them.
The permitted subject matter is narrow: economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends. Examples cited by CIRO include inflation rates, sovereign debt statistics and global temperature averages. Dealers may not offer contracts tied to election results, party leadership nominations, referendum outcomes or unlawful activities, the bulletin said. Sports contracts are not among the permitted categories, and BetaKit reports they remain off limits.
That leaves Verdx facing established rivals. Wealthsimple has launched Wealthsimple Predict, a prediction markets product built on the U.S. exchange Kalshi, which is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to Money.ca. The company announced it on June 18, 2026, and it offers close to 4,000 contracts in the three approved categories. Interactive Brokers Canada also offers event contracts to Canadians. Advisor.ca reported that those two firms were the only ones authorized as of CIRO’s bulletin.
For Canadian investors, the practical difference is regulatory protection. Money.ca noted that CIRO-registered dealers must meet know-your-client rules, monitor for insider trading and safeguard client assets, protections that offshore platforms do not necessarily provide. A dedicated dealer could also give Canadians a regulated, domestic option, though it is not clear how Verdx would source its contracts, and BetaKit’s report does not say when a decision on its application might come.
The bigger open question is how far the rules will bend. Advisor.ca reported that CIRO and the Canadian Securities Administrators have signalled possible future restrictions, while Evan Thomas, Wealthsimple’s former head of legal, told Money.ca that if sports event contracts ever arrive in Canada, the likelier path runs through provincial gaming regulators rather than securities regulators. Canada’s securities and gaming rules are provincial, unlike the single federal framework in the United States.
Until regulators decide, a new entrant’s pitch will rest on trust, compliance and a thin menu of approved topics. Whether that is enough to build a business is something Verdx has yet to show.
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Sources: BetaKit (Oct. 2, 2026), Advisor.ca (March 27, 2026), Money.ca. Funding and application details rest on BetaKit’s report.
