Brazil runoff poll shows Bolsonaro up 2 points on Lula

Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by two percentage points, 47 per cent to 45 per cent, in a Datafolha poll released Oct. 15, ten days before the Oct. 25 runoff.

Updated Oct. 16, 2026.

The result is half the four-point edge Datafolha recorded a week earlier, when Bolsonaro led 49 per cent to 45 per cent, and it sits inside the poll’s margin of error of two percentage points. Reuters described it as a technical tie, in a report carried by WTAQ.

Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people on Oct. 13 and 14. Six per cent said they would cast a blank vote and two per cent were undecided. Among valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots, Bolsonaro had 51 per cent and Lula 49 per cent, down from 52 to 48 in the Oct. 6 and 7 survey, the Rio Times reported.

A second pollster points the same way. Quaest, in its first poll since the Oct. 4 first round, had Bolsonaro at 46 per cent and Lula at 44 per cent among 2,154 people interviewed Oct. 10 to 13, with a margin of error of two points, Reuters reported. Nine per cent planned a blank or null vote or no vote, and one per cent were undecided.

The Rio Times reported that 91 per cent of Quaest respondents said their choice was final, that 54 per cent said they would never vote for Bolsonaro and 53 per cent said the same of Lula, and that 45 per cent approved of Lula’s government while 48 per cent disapproved. Those figures come from one outlet and are not independently confirmed here.

The two polls use different bases, so they are not directly comparable. Datafolha’s headline figures count all answers, while its valid-vote figures are the ones most often compared with the final result. Quaest reported total responses.

Brazilian polls have misjudged this race before. Datafolha’s last survey before the first round had Lula ahead 45 per cent to 42 per cent of valid votes, but the Superior Electoral Court count gave Bolsonaro 47.03 per cent and Lula 45.16 per cent, the Rio Times reported. Four runoff polls released Oct. 8 to 10 had given Bolsonaro leads of four to six points in valid votes, as we reported on Oct. 11.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Asked about the polls, Lula told reporters he does not assess them. “The only way to win an election is by winning votes,” he said, according to the Rio Times.

The Rio Times reported that a televised debate hosted by Band is set for Oct. 18 at 8 p.m. in Brasília. That date comes from one outlet, and the story is developing. Our earlier coverage of the first-round result has the vote and regional breakdown, and our report on the Senate’s 40-hour work week vote covers a policy fight shaping the campaign.

For Canada, Brazil is a growing trade and investment partner. Two-way merchandise trade reached $14.7 billion in 2025, up 16 per cent from the year before, and Canadian direct investment in Brazil stood at $24.6 billion, up 25 per cent, according to Global Affairs Canada. About 71,755 people in Canada reported Brazilian origins in the latest census, the department said.

Voting in the runoff takes place Oct. 25. The Superior Electoral Court, which runs Brazil’s elections, publishes results on its website.

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Via Reuters and the Rio Times.