By Arsh Tushar Mogre
BENGALURU (Reuters) – India likely recorded strong double-digit economic growth in the last quarter but economists polled by Reuters expected the pace to more than halve this quarter and slow further toward the end of the year as interest rates rise.
Asia’s third-largest economy is grappling with persistently high unemployment and inflation, which has been running above the top of the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band all year and is set to do so for the rest of 2022.
Growth this quarter is predicted to slow sharply to an annual 6.2% from a median forecast of 15.2% in Q2, supported mainly by statistical comparisons with a year ago rather than new momentum, before decelerating further to 4.5% in October-December.
The median expectation for 2022 growth was 7.2%, according to an Aug. 22-26 Reuters poll, but economists said that the solid growth rate masks how rapidly the economy was expected to slow in coming months.
“Even as India remains the fastest-growing major economy, domestic consumption will perhaps not be strong enough to drive growth further as unemployment remains high and real wages are at a record low level,” said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale.
“By supporting growth through investment, the government has only fired on one engine while forgetting about the impetus which domestic consumption provides. This is why India’s growth is still below its pre-pandemic trend.”
The economy has not grown fast enough to accommodate some 12 million people joining the labour force each year.
Meanwhile the RBI, a relative laggard in the global tightening cycle, is set to raise its key repo rate by another 60 basis points by the end of March to try to bring inflation within the tolerance limit. [ECILT/IN]
That follows three interest rate rises this year totalling 140 basis points, and would take the repo rate to 6.00% by end-Q1 2023.
While the central bank’s mandated target band is 2%-6%, inflation was expected to average 6.9% and 6.2% this quarter and next, respectively, before falling just below the top end of the range to 5.8% in Q1 2023. That is roughly in line with the central bank’s projection.
“Despite signs of a cool-off in price pressures … it is premature to go easy on the inflation fight given considerable uncertainties from geopolitical risks and hard landing risks in major economies,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS.
The economy is also enduring inflation pressure from a weak rupee, which for months has been trading close to 80 to the U.S. dollar, a level the central bank has been defending in currency markets by selling dollar reserves.
The latest Reuters poll also showed India’s current account deficit swelling to 3.1% of gross domestic product this year, the highest in at least a decade, which may put further pressure on the currency.
(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)
(Reporting by Arsh Tushar Mogre; Polling by Anant Chandak, Devayani Sathyan and Vivek Mishra; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley)
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4 experts explain how to prepare for a new economic reality and protect the most vulnerable – World Economic Forum
- Chief Economists are mostly in agreement that the outlook for the economy is bleak and that recession is likely.
- This new reality will take its toll on inequality and widening societal gaps.
- Four experts explain how policies might address the immediate crisis with an eye to beefing up resilience in the long term.
The latest World Economic Forum Chief Economists Outlook suggests a global recession is “somewhat likely” and the fallout will take its toll on inequality. Just this week, the OECD put out a similar message in its interim report, warning that recent indicators have “taken a turn for the worse”.
Chief Economists have been nearly unanimous in predicting wages to fail to keep pace with surging prices, with nine in ten expecting real wages to decline in low-income economies in 2022 and 2023, alongside 80% in high-income economies.
This will see a continuing deterioration of household purchasing power compounded by aggregate pressures on basic necessities such as food and energy.
Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum highlights “Growing inequality between and within countries” as the “ongoing legacy of COVID-19, war and uncoordinated policy action.” She says, “With inflation soaring and real wages falling, the global cost-of-living crisis is hitting the most vulnerable hardest. As policy-makers aim to control inflation while minimizing the impact on growth, they will need to ensure specific support to those who need it most.”
We asked four chief economists who took part in the survey which policies they think will protect the most vulnerable and how this new economic reality might be steered to better prepare for the future.
‘Pricing carbon (globally) must play a central role’
Christian Keller, Head, Economics Research, Barclays
The one change I would make to the global economy to better prepare us for the future would be to implement a global carbon pricing mechanism. The earth’s climate is the ultimate ‘tragedy of the global commons’: individual and collective incentives are misaligned, because the price of harmful economic activities does not accurately reflect the true social cost. It results in the over-production of carbon-intensive assets to the ultimate detriment of global welfare.
Pricing carbon emissions – or the internalization of their negative externality – is the first step to solve this ‘market failure’. Increasing their price, dis-incentivizes carbon emissions, while also generating public revenues to compensate groups negatively affected by the transition and/or fund public goods such as low-carbon energy infrastructure.
Such a carbon pricing mechanism would ideally be global in nature, to avoid regulatory arbitrage and cross-border carbon leakage.The principles of such a mechanism are textbook economics, but many more questions arise in practice, including how to determine the true ‘marginal external costs’. Naturally, it would be a discovery process and there would be glitches. However, if one does believe climate change is a threat and that it is caused by carbon emissions, pricing carbon (globally) must play a central role.
‘Build a resilient and sustainable pricing strategy’
Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, EY-Parthenon, USA
The various drivers of economic activity that were previously taken as a given will now warrant much more attention from businesses, investors and consumers. There will be five central tenets to this new paradigm: inflation, labour, supply chain, the cost of capital, and environmental, social and governance (ESG) and sustainability issues.
While the current focus is that inflation is hovering at multi-decade highs in many places around the world, there doesn’t appear to be a broad realization that inflation persistence and volatility are likely to be a key feature of the outlook over the next few years. As such, businesses will need to consider building a resilient and sustainable pricing strategy that is nimble enough to navigate a world where demand will ebb and flow more significantly than in the past few decades. Cost management and productivity gains will likely also have to be central to companies’ holistic inflation strategy.
In an environment, where talent is not just more expensive but is also perceived as more valuable and where pricing power will be limited by softening final demand, business executives will increasingly have to focus on productivity and efficiency gains to offset higher labor costs. This won’t be easy, but it will be central to their success.
Supply chain issues have been a central part of the inflation story of the last few years, and it would be misguided to believe that these issues will dissipate overnight. Businesses will need to build supply chain resilience while being aware of economic, geopolitical and political undercurrents.
The rise in the cost of debt has led business executives to put some investment plans on hold, while the large fluctuations in equity valuations have created a wedge between buyers’ and sellers’ perception of the true value of an asset. In addition, the significant US dollar appreciation against most other currencies has created a new set of considerations for multinationals having to hedge their international exposure and incorporate a new consideration into their organizational and portfolio decisions.
Over the last few years, businesses have increasingly focused on ESG and sustainability issues to create long-term value, develop a sense of purpose, and provide trust and confidence to the market. The last few months have brought about a sense of urgency to these developments.
‘Address structural factors to reduce future vulnerabilities ’
Eric Parrado, Chief Economist; General Manager, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank
The global inflationary crisis is having profound consequences on the well-being of populations around the world, especially in emerging and developing economies. Estimates for Latin America and the Caribbean suggest that food inflation could increase poverty rates by 1.6 percentage points and extreme poverty by 1.8 percentage points.
Policies should have a short term and long-term focus. In the short-term governments should provide transfers for the poorest populations to compensate increases in food prices. This helps to keep people from sliding into poverty and extreme poverty. Subsidies should be designed and funded carefully to avoid larger fiscal imbalances that could contribute to higher inflation rates.
Long-term policies address structural factors to reduce future vulnerabilities. Investing in agricultural innovation, research and climate change adaptation are key to improving productivity in agro-industries, food system resilience and strengthening food security in the long run.
A greater focus should be placed in climate change mitigating policies to ensure agricultural frontiers are not displaced further, and food supply is not restricted. At the same time, countries can avoid directing scarce fiscal resources to cover the costs of dealing with costly man produced natural disasters.
‘Drive employment opportunity and protection’
Svenja Gudell, Chief Economist, Indeed
Access to good jobs is an integral part of both obtaining and sustaining quality of life and well-being. From a labour market perspective, policies which could dramatically benefit vulnerable populations include: skills-based hiring, pay and wage transparency, second chance hiring, accessibility tools and accommodations, and inclusive and unbiased hiring – to name a few. While some leaders look to a one-size-fits-all policy to address cost of living issues, the truth is this rarely results in the desired outcome. Instead, policymakers must consider both the broader, long-term picture, as well as the unique situation within industries, locations, and individual needs to help close these gaps.
As we face hardships ranging from increased cost of living, global warming, geopolitical tensions, etc., employment opportunity and protection for all is key to future prosperity. The micro and macro benefits of adequate, gainful employment enable an increased quality of life and well-being, opportunity for economic mobility, and benefits to both physical and mental health. Ultimately, on a global scale, we must identify and build on technology that is being used effectively to support workers and ensure that job mobility, continuous learning and access to information are widely available to drive employment opportunities and protection for workers.
What next for the global economy? 3 experts have their say – World Economic Forum
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.
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