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‘Perfect storm’: Is Canada headed for a third wave of COVID-19? – Global News

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There are growing concerns that the spread of more contagious COVID-19 variants could spark a third wave of the coronavirus in Canada as provinces ease restrictions.

All 10 provinces have now reported at least one case of the variant first detected in the United Kingdom. Other “variants of concern” from South Africa and Brazil have also made their way into the country.

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Experts predict rise of COVID-19 variant cases, warn of 3rd wave

With a downward trend of daily cases, Canada is seemingly wrestling through the tail end of a second wave. But public health officials and infectious diseases experts are already raising the alarm bells on a third peak.

“The combination of that optimism from a successful lockdown leading to governments wanting to reopen and the background of these variants of concern emerging, plus, delays in the vaccine arrival is setting up really this perfect storm for a massive third wave,” said Dr. Brooks Fallis, a critical care physician in Toronto.

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In the largest province of Ontario, 27 regions will begin a gradual reopening on Tuesday against the backdrop of stark scientific modelling that has predicted a third wave of infections and the potential of a third lockdown.

Modelling released on Feb. 11 showed that if public health measures are lifted, the variant first identified in the U.K., which will likely become the dominant version of the virus in the province, could lead to as many as 6,000 daily cases by the end of March.

Following a strict lockdown, Quebec reopened non-essential retail stores, personal-care salons and museums across the province last week. On Feb. 8, Alberta restaurants were also allowed to reopen for in-person dining. Meanwhile, since January, several provinces in Canada have resumed in-person learning at schools.


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Coronavirus: Ontario could see 3rd wave due to increase in variants


Coronavirus: Ontario could see 3rd wave due to increase in variants

Jean-Paul Soucy, an infectious disease epidemiologist and PhD student at the University of Toronto, said based on the current trajectory of the variants and the decision-making by governments, the third wave could come in mid to late March and early April.

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“We’re looking at two different epidemics almost at this point,” he said, adding that the exponential growth of the new variants is gradually replacing the old strain of COVID-19.

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Following a month-long lull and a sluggish start to its vaccine rollout, Canada is expected to get a big boost in the delivery of shots from Pfizer-BioNTech this week.

But, since vaccinations for the general population are not expected to start until April, it is less likely that the COVID-19 vaccines could prevent a third wave, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases specialist and physician at Toronto General Hospital, said.

“A third wave is a very reasonable possibility, but it is not inevitable,” he told Global News.

If a third wave does hit the country, however, it will be different than the second wave, according to Soucy and Bogoch.

They said vaccinations in long-term care homes will mean there will be fewer deaths there, but a larger percentage of fatalities among the older adults in the community.

“Hopefully the devastation of long-term care facilities will be avoided because, at that point, everyone who lives and works in long-term care will have completed their COVID-19 vaccinations,” said Bogoch.


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‘Nobody wants a third wave’ of COVID-19 infections, Trudeau says


‘Nobody wants a third wave’ of COVID-19 infections, Trudeau says

Can a third wave be averted?

On Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged the public to refrain from unnecessary travel and gatherings as the long weekend approached, noting a fast-tracked shipment of millions of COVID-19 vaccines in coming months will not be enough to combat the variants that have overtaken other countries.

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“Nobody wants a third wave to start, particularly not one comprised of new, more communicable variants that can cause real challenges,” Trudeau said during a news conference from outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa.

Read more:
‘Significant underestimation’ of Canada’s COVID-19 case count

Also on Friday, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, said aggressive vaccinations will play a key part in addressing COVID-19 spread but that is just one suppression tool. She added that ongoing vigilance was vital.

“Look at the European countries — they give us a clue as to what might happen if variants are circulating, and we let our guard down. That massive acceleration into that third resurgence, if you like … will happen really fast.”


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COVID Variants: Will they cause Canada’s third wave?


COVID Variants: Will they cause Canada’s third wave?

In a bid to curb the spread of new variants, Ontario has introduced an “emergency brake” system to allow for immediate action if a public health unit region experiences rapid acceleration in COVID-19 transmission or if its health care system risks becoming overwhelmed.

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Soucy said the reopening of less essential facilities like restaurants for indoor dining and gyms should be delayed until the spring and summertime “when we get to control transmission.”

Bogoch echoed that thought, saying it will be important not to reopen too quickly, have policies in place to act swiftly and “stay ahead of the virus.”

Variants of concern or no variants of concern — we still know how to prevent infection,” he said.

“If we navigate the next few months until vaccination is more widespread, we can certainly avoid a third wave.”

— With files from the Global News’ Heather Yourex-West, the Canadian Press.

© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Canada unveils greenhouse gas reduction credits to boost carbon trading market

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By Nia Williams

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) – Canada released draft regulations on Friday aimed at stimulating domestic carbon credit trading, part of the federal government’s push to curb emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases.

Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters on a per capita basis, has committed to reducing emissions by 2030 to 30% lower than 2005 levels. It is targeting net-zero emissions by 2050.

The new Federal GHG Offset System is designed to support a domestic carbon trading market. Projects that reduce or remove GHGs can generate credits and sell them to industrial facilities – such as cement works or refineries – that exceed emissions limits determined under Canada‘s carbon tax.

Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said the system will create opportunities for farmers, foresters and indigenous communities, among others, to earn revenues from projects that cut GHG emissions.

Ottawa also hopes it will spur innovation and private-sector investment in emissions-reducing technology, and allow Canadian industry to remain competitive by lowering the cost of carbon credits.

“This system will encourage cost-effective emissions reductions right here in Canada and create new economic opportunities, particularly in the forestry, agriculture, and waste sectors,” Wilkinson said in a statement.

Environmental group Greenpeace criticized the plan, saying Canada should focus on cutting emissions in all sectors of the economy.

“If we want to encourage climate action in agriculture or forestry, let’s do that directly rather than turning the work of farmers and forest protectors into a get-out-of-jail-free card for oil and coal companies,” said strategist Keith Stewart.

Projects must achieve permanent GHG reductions beyond what is legally required, and must have started operating no earlier than Jan. 1 2017. Ottawa is still working on rules for project eligibility and developing protocols for advanced refrigeration systems, landfill methane management, forest management and sustainable agricultural land management.

Next up will be protocols for projects including aerobic composting and livestock feed management, the government said.

Final regulations are expected in fall 2021.

Each credit will be equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent removed or reduced. The price will be set in the open market, with the federal carbon tax expected to act as a ceiling.

Last year, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government said it will ramp up its price on carbon to C$170 ($134.32) a ton by 2030.

($1 = 1.2656 Canadian dollars)

 

(Reporting by Nia Williams; Editing by Leslie Adler, Aurora Ellis and David Gregorio)

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One-on-one with Dr. Bonnie Henry: Where she thinks Canada stands in the fight against COVID-19 – CTV News

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TORONTO —
A year into the COVID-19 pandemic, Health Canada has approved four vaccines to be administered to Canadians. However, continued public health measures, new emerging coronavirus variants and record case numbers in the second wave have some health experts warning that life won’t return to normal anytime soon.

But Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry is hopeful that people in British Columbia could be living in a “post-pandemic world” by the summer.

The province’s top doctor says she is “optimistic” that the recent approval of the AstraZeneca vaccine and the first one-shot immunization from Johnson & Johnson will allow the government to revise its vaccination timeline and have every eligible B.C. resident vaccinated sooner than previously thought.

Henry spoke to CTV’s Chief News Anchor and Senior Editor Lisa LaFlamme from Victoria on Friday to discuss where Canada stands now in the fight against COVID-19, as well as her upcoming book, “Be Kind, Be Calm, Be Safe: Four Weeks that Shaped a Pandemic,” detailing the first four weeks of the pandemic in B.C.

Below is a transcript of the interview, edited for length and clarity:

Lisa LaFlamme: I don’t know how you managed to write a book with your nonstop schedule, but it’s a very interesting read. Why now though, before the pandemic is over, before there is a conclusion?

Dr. Bonnie Henry: Oh, that’s a very good question. This book was actually written during the one week, the five days I had off in early August, and my sister was back out here with us and with me and she had put all this structure together and had this idea and she says she talked to me about it, but I don’t remember.

So she came out and basically sat me down and said, ‘OK these are the bits you need to write’, and it really was, in many ways, for me it was cathartic. It was putting some of the thoughts and feelings that we were going through that very challenging time a year ago now.

So we finished it in early August and it’s being released on the anniversary, but I don’t think any of us really knew that we’d be in the place that we are right now so it was one of those — it was just really about that really strange and challenging and difficult period of time that we all went through a year ago now.

LaFlamme: You’ve suggested we could still save the summer. Is it risky to raise people’s hopes after so many setbacks on the vaccine front?

Henry: I think we need hope. We need to know that there’s an end in sight and one of the things that we’ve been saying is this is like a triathlon and we’re in the marathon, but we don’t know where the finish line is or whether it’s an ultra-marathon or a regular 42.2 and those last miles are the hardest, so it is when we need that. We need to know that there’s an end in sight and there’s things that we can do that are going to get us there and I actually believe, from what we have learned about this virus and this year, we’ve seen that there’s a seasonality to it, we’ve seen that the vaccines — and this is the incredible thing that within a year we have now four safe and effective vaccines in Canada — and the thing that really has made it in my mind a possibility that we’re going to get there is the data that has shown how effective the vaccine is at protecting older people.

For those people who haven’t been in the vaccine world for a long time, that is something that is almost miraculous and I don’t use that word lightly. To be able to protect the individuals who are older, is something that makes our ability to get to that place where we can have those important connections together again a very real reality after just one dose of this vaccine.

LaFlamme: And I think everybody is encouraged by that. At the same time this big question — is a third wave inevitable?

Henry: Here in B.C. we’ve been seeing a steady increase in the last two weeks and we’re back to, in some ways, very much where we were at this point last year; relying on the important contact case management and contact tracing that public health does to try and stop those transmissions before they take off widely.

LaFlamme: When you reflect back it’s a little disconcerting to hear you say we’re right back where we were a year ago when you’re seeing numbers rise, when you think of the first wave and those earliest days, given the vast experience you’ve had with SARS and Ebola. Were you out there waving a red flag that there was danger ahead and people were reluctant to believe you or were you also blindsided at just how severe this coronavirus would actually become?

Henry: I was very, very concerned and worried and anxious, much more so than many of my colleagues in public health and in the health system because many of them had not been through this sort of thing, and our last pandemic of influenza, we managed fairly well. So there wasn’t the thought that quarantine was something that we would actually do, closing borders was something we would actually do, closing schools, closing workplaces — these measures that we had talked about in some sense and I have spent a lot of time looking into… There was a sense of disbelief that we would actually have to use them.

LaFlamme: What about accountability in this country for all the preparedness manuals that were clearly sitting on shelves somewhere? It felt for a lot of Canadians we were woefully unprepared — mixed messages, B.C. doing one thing, Alberta doing another, this patchwork across the country and I know that is the reality of a provincial-based health-care system, but for the collective good would you have preferred a more centralized response from the beginning?

Henry: I’ve been thinking a lot of about it for many years and I chair our Canadian Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning Task Force that actually had the plan that we used as a basis for this response. And yes, I do wish that we had had a much stronger co-ordinated federal, provincial response. Some of the things that we need to really move and change are having a national information system that allows us to rapidly share information on these critical communicable diseases with us across the country and with the federal government. We don’t have that. We needed that after SARS, we knew that, we spent years building something and then some provinces backed out, the federal government decided they weren’t going to use it and once again we’re here with a patchwork system.

There are so many things that could have been easier had we followed the advice that we’d had, and it is very challenging in times of non pandemics to spend the critical money that’s needed to develop information systems to have a stockpile. One of the things that I’ve been advocating for, as have many of my public health colleagues for many, many years is an onshore vaccination production capacity in Canada, but those things are hard to put forward when you have such urgent issues in our health system on a day-to-day basis. And of course, the tragedy of the reality of how we have neglected our long-term care homes across the country, that is something that we need to change.

LaFlamme: That is the true tragic legacy of this pandemic so far. Do you see that as a public health failure or where’s that responsibility?

Henry: I see it as a failure of multiple different levels. We have commoditized in some ways, we’ve got for-profit, we’ve got not-for-profit, we’ve got religious, but we have to look back on the history of long-term care. It really started as religious orders supporting older members as they aged and so it has been — it has grown up piecemeal. And then the way we’ve treated it as sort of partly in the health-care system and partly not has created a lot of barriers.

We had to take some drastic action very early on because normally, we wouldn’t be providing personal protective equipment and support to private care homes, but early on here in B.C. we said we have to do that because if those people get sick, it’s going to transmit into the community. So we needed to do things like that and overcoming that inertia to get those things done, but it was not easy.

Primary carers who work in our long-term care homes have been mistreated just to be frank for many, many years — underpaid, undervalued, many of them are people who are from racialized communities and that is something that we need to collectively address and change.

LaFlamme: And you were one of the first people in this country to actually be able to put a name and a face to the first Canadian victim of COVID-19. We still don’t know who patient zero is, but how did that experience shape your message so early on and in communicating hard information to Canadians on a daily basis?

Henry: It is really hard, and the backstory of it from the SARS outbreak in Toronto where …I got to know every single one of the families who had people who died in that outbreak. It really became an integral part of my approach to the many different outbreaks that we’ve been involved in; the importance of protecting people’s personal information and making sure that they can’t be linked and found by people who are trying to… It’s challenging, because everybody wants the story and wants to know all the details for families often need privacy, they need time to grieve, to understand what’s happening, and sadly with this virus as we have seen with many other communicable diseases, people can be mistreated, and treated badly.

Even now, we see instances of racism against community members who are COVID positive through no fault of their own, and it started very early on with anti-Asian sentiment that we’re still see. But the importance of getting people the information they needed to take the actions that we knew would protect each other without violating the intense personal privacy that people needed — very difficult balance and I know everybody wants more and more information, but it’s what you need to know as opposed to what people want to know. Finding that balance can be a very difficult challenge sometimes.

LaFlamme: I’m sure personally it was a great challenge too I mean, here you are presenting this message, but you’re also the target. There was a lot of love in the beginning for you, but we all saw that turn. What was that experience like for you and how do you sort of compartmentalize the trolls and the cruelty that is landing on your doorstep?

Henry: I was kind of prepared for that and I said it from the very beginning, I am the face and the voice unwittingly of a really strong, important team and they support me, I support them. That’s one of the things that gets you through the good times and the bad times my fellow chief medical officers of health from across the country, but also my team here in B.C. So that is really important for me.

I knew that over time the longer things go on the more challenging it becomes, the more likely people are to lash out and we know from human behaviour that in a time of crises and anxiety and particularly uncertainty and, I’ve come to learn, nuance creates this feeling of uncertainty that makes some people take it out with acting out and becoming angry. It’s hard, it’s really hard, but I try and balance that, and I can say that I am buoyed every day by positive messages that I get from people all the time from my neighbours, my mother of course…

LaFlamme: There’s so much confusion for Canadians on the role of [vaccine] manufacturers, laid out guidelines, 21 to 28 days between doses. Canadians are suddenly told no, the two doses will have a four month gap because an advisory committee has decided it’s safe. I know you’re a member of that, but do you understand or do you follow the fact that this is what is so confusing and perhaps leading to mistrust in public health in this country?

Henry: Yeah, I understand absolutely that people hear the different messages, but I think what we all need to recognize is that we are learning as we go. We learn more about the virus, we learn how it was transmitted, we learned that in certain conditions indoors, with poor ventilation with lots of people it spread more easily and maybe by aerosols, we learned the importance of masks in certain situations, these are all things that we learn. We get data, it’s a scientific way. You get data, you get more data, you get real-world data, you understand more, and you make changes depending on what you’re learning as you go. Same with these vaccines.

We have to remember that last summer, there was about 150 candidates for vaccines that were in the initial phases of trials. We didn’t know which ones of those were going to work or not. These amazing ones that we have, the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Moderna vaccines, messenger RNA vaccines, brand new vaccine platform, nobody in the world has ever made a vaccine with these before, though there have been little bits of research that have gone back for decades saying that these might be a good idea and people are trying to find a new rabies vaccine, for example. So yeah, the companies wanted and needed to minimize the interval between doses, they needed to figure out if you needed one or two or more, and they needed to minimize the interval between doses so that they could get see if the vaccines worked and we’re safe as rapidly as possible. And that happened, and it happened even before we expected it because we had that surge of cases so the irony is you need more people to get sick to understand that the vaccines are actually protecting people. That is part of how the vaccines were developed and that’s what the manufacturer puts their information into the regulators like Health Canada, and the decision that Health Canada has to make is, does this vaccine work and is it safe? And with the protocols that were used in these clinical trials — so those are very rigid protocols, people are swabbed on a specific date, they’re get blood tests at a specific date, they get vaccines within a specific very narrow timeframe — those are the clinical protocols that help us understand does it work and is it safe.

Once we start using them in the real world, we get what we call effectiveness data. So that’s efficacy, that’s the rigid trials. And then once we get them in the real world we start to understand, well who do they work better for, and there wasn’t so many people who were over 65 in this study so we better watch people who are getting it who are over 65 and see if it is what the studies show. And we’ve learned in real life that — and these are studies too, this is scientific method, it’s just a different type of study … So we’re getting great information about how these work in the real world and that’s what drives our decisions now. So the clinical trials are the basis to figure out if they worked, and then we use the real world data to develop where do they work best and how do we make the best use of the vaccines we have and that’s why we made the decision that not only is it good to extend, it is safe to extend the dose interval to four months, but it’s maybe better for people in the long run and that is from vaccine science, from immunology. We know it takes time for our immune system to build up, and for some of these vaccines it may turn out that a single dose is all we need. We don’t know that yet because we haven’t done those, we haven’t followed long enough, but it is likely that we’re going to change again as we get more information. We may need maybe six months, that’s the optimal time to get a second dose, that’s going to help us get through the next two years of COVID circulation with protecting people so those are things that we’re going to learn as we go. So that’s the way science works in the real world, that we take the studies and then we see how it works in reality.

LaFlamme: Well we are all experiencing a harsh dose of the real world over this past year and Dr. Bonnie Henry we thank you so much for your time and valued insight over this year and, again, congratulations on the book.

Henry: Thank you so much.

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Canada approves J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine, moves up some Pfizer deliveries

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By David Ljunggren and Steve Scherer

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada‘s drug regulator on Friday approved Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine, the fourth such shot to be given the green light, as Ottawa brought forward deliveries of millions of Pfizer doses.

“To people watching at home right now who are looking forward to getting their shot – your turn is coming,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a televised briefing.

Trudeau also said Pfizer Inc had agreed to accelerate deliveries, shipping a total of 3.5 million doses ahead of schedule by the end of May.

Deliveries to Canada have been slow – lagging many other developed nations – even though it has ordered more doses per capita than any other country.

With a population of almost 38 million, Canada now expects 36.5 million doses of previously approved vaccines to be delivered by the end of June.

The regulator authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Inc vaccines in December, and AstraZeneca’s in February. Each of these requires two shots.

The government of Ontario, Canada‘s most populous province, said on Friday it would extend the maximum period between first and second doses to four months, speeding up access to a first shot.

In addition to seniors and healthcare workers, Ontario now plans to prioritize shots for those who are unable to work from home, including teachers, and it aims to administer at least one dose of a vaccine to all adults over 60 by early June, officials said.

The J&J vaccine is the first single-dose vaccine approved in Canada and it can be stored in normal fridges, while the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna shots must be kept in freezers.

The J&J shot, which has been authorized for adults in Canada, was 66% effective at preventing moderate and severe disease, said Supriya Sharma, a senior health ministry official.

Canada has pre-ordered 10 million doses of the J&J vaccine, with options to order up to 28 million more. In a statement, the Brunswick, New Jersey-based company said it planned to provide the 10 million doses by the end of September.

U.S. President Joe Biden said earlier this week that J&J was behind in manufacturing. The company was due to have shipped 37 million doses to the United States by the end of this month but looks set to fall well short of that.

So far, 4.2% of the Canadian population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, according to volunteer-run tracking site COVID-19 Tracker Canada, compared with 16% in the United States.

 

(Reporting by David Ljunggren and Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Moira Warburton; Editing by Giles Elgood and Steve Orlofsky)

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