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What you need to know about inflation – CTV News
In December before the Surrey Board of Trade, Deputy Bank of Canada Governor Toni Gravelle spoke of how our economy has come a long way since the pandemic struck and essentially shut the economy down. We are “well down the road to a full recovery,” he said. “But we are still feeling the impacts of the pandemic.”
Gravelle outlined the bank’s top two concerns were supply shortages and the elevated rate of inflation.
Whether it be food, gas, or housing prices, inflation is becoming a global concern during the pandemic. In a recent Nanos survey, inflation and cost of living were listed as the top source of anxiety. In fact, the poll found that Canadians are nearly nine times (87%) more likely to say they’re worried more about higher prices for everyday goods rather than higher interest rates (10%).
Ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers due to be released on Jan. 19, CTVNews.ca spoke with experts and included a few graphs below to explain why inflation is on top of everyone’s mind, how the pandemic has impacted it, and how Canada compares on that front with G7 nations.
What is inflation and why does it matter?
The consumer price index, better known as CPI, is the most common system to gauge inflation. It measures the cost of living by looking at the prices of goods and services that people typically buy such as food, housing, transportation, furniture, clothing, recreation, and other items.
Like most central banks, the Bank of Canada monitors “core inflation” that focuses on the underlying trend of inflation, looking through the short-term fluctuations or temporary shifts in the total CPI.
The current inflation is 4.7 per cent, significantly higher than the top of the Bank’s inflation-control range. The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent mid-point of an inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 per cent. Low and stable inflation contributes to sustainable economic growth. The balance between the demand and the economy’s production capacity determines inflation.
The Bank becomes concerned if the inflation rises above or falls below the 2 per cent target. A high inflation reduces the purchasing power of a household or an individual and can significantly impact household budgets. High prices can change our shopping habits, investments, travel, transport, and even medical expenses.
Negative rates often create a period of deflation, which means a decline in the prices of goods and services, giving more purchasing power to consumers. While falling prices sound like a good thing, a persistent decline in prices can negatively impact an economy. The effect is negative for debtors who have failing businesses or have declining income since the real value of debt payments for them can increase. In the same way, if prices and income fall, tax revenues can fall and impact government spending. One major example of sustained deflation in Canada was in the Great Depression of the 1930s.
How is inflation monitored?
The Bank of Canada conducts monetary policies to ensure the inflation target is maintained. It usually takes about six to eight quarters to see the impact of the tools used to combat inflation and that’s one reason that monetary policies are always forward-looking.
The Bank relies on different tools to control the money supply in the market such as large asset purchases (quantitative easing and credit easing), funding for credit measures, and negative policy rates.
To stimulate the economy and encourage borrowing, spending, and investment, the central bank can resort to an unconventional tool known as the negative policy rate where it sets its target nominal interest rate to less than zero per cent. In the light of the 2008 subprime mortgage crises, several nations such as Japan and Europe had resorted to zero policy rates.
However, pushing rates to below zero impacts short-term interest rates and can eventually affect mortgages, lines of credit, and other, longer-term interest rates that matter to average Canadians. The Bank of Canada uses other tools such as quantitative easing to support low policy rates. Quantitative easing is when central banks pay for bond purchases with settlement balances (not bank notes). The Bank buys bonds that have already been sold by the government to banks and other financial institutions. In credit easing, the Bank can also buy corporate bonds from financial institutions, which can support the economy, making it cheaper for companies to invest and create more jobs.
All these policies indirectly affect the total demand for Canadian goods and services.
Impact of the pandemic on inflation
With the new variants, the pandemic has taken an unprecedented turn. When compared to other advanced economies, Canada’s inflation is on the lower end. The U.S. has recorded an inflation rate of 7 per cent, the highest since 1982. Leading contributors to the U.S. inflation were housing, cars, and trucks. According to a survey of 900 global CEOs, rising inflation, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and changing consumer behaviors were top worries.
Due to factors such as rising demand for oil and gas, the shortage of many goods, supply shortages, the cost of living in the U.K. rose by 5.1 per cent, the highest in 10 years. A recent survey by the British Chambers of Commerce said that 58 per cent of firms expected their prices to increase in the next three months, the highest on record. Of those surveyed, 66 per cent of businesses cited inflation as a concern.
Energy prices and supply rate disruptions have pushed inflation in Europe’s second-largest economy, France as well.
One of the biggest impacts of the pandemic has been on the supply chain, which is pushing inflation globally and in Canada as well, driving up everything from cars and furniture to food and shelter.
“Supply chain networks have been disrupted globally,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist and director at BMO Capital Markets told CTVNews.ca on Monday.
He said factories are getting closed either due to a shortage of staff because people are sick or under quarantine. This indirectly impacts the steady supply of raw materials that are used in the manufacturing process globally.
Guatieri said at the same time the cost of freight across oceans has increased due to the shortage of truck drivers. So all these costs are getting passed on to the consumers. But aside from the supply chain disruptions, inflation is also impacted by several other factors such as food prices, gasoline prices, house prices, homeowner replacement costs, energy prices, and motor vehicles costs. In 2021, global food prices rose ‘sharply’, according to a recent report by United Nations (UN). The agency’s Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices showed a 28% increase over 2020. The reason for this jump was the high cost of inputs, ongoing pandemic, and volatile climatic conditions.
Guatieri said a source of upward pressure on inflation has been a rebound in some of the hard-hit service areas such as travel and car prices. Hotel costs and airfares have climbed in the past year and could be a source of upward pressure on inflation. Car prices have been impacted by chip shortages, resulting in the highest costs and shortage of new vehicles. Gualtieri said homeowner displacements costs could be a big source in driving up inflation. With house prices accelerating, more people could be pushed into the rental market because they can’t afford a home, he added.
News
Capital gains tax change draws ire from some Canadian entrepreneurs worried it will worsen brain drain – CBC.ca
A chorus of Canadian entrepreneurs and investors is blasting the federal government’s budget for expanding a tax on the rich. They say it will lead to brain drain and further degrade Canada’s already poor productivity.
In the 2024 budget unveiled Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government would increase the inclusion rate of the capital gains tax from 50 per cent to 67 per cent for businesses and trusts, generating an estimated $19 billion in new revenue.
Capital gains are the profits that individuals or businesses make from selling an asset — like a stock or a second home. Individuals are subject to the new changes on any profits over $250,000.
The government estimates that the changes would impact 40,000 individuals (or 0.13 per cent of Canadians in any given year) and 307,000 companies in Canada.
However, some members of the business community say that expanding the taxable amount will devastate productivity, investment and entrepreneurship in Canada, and might even compel some of the country’s talent and startups to take their business elsewhere.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled the government’s 2024 federal budget, with spending targeted at young voters and a plan to raise capital gains taxes for some of the wealthiest Canadians.
Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators (CCI), said the capital gains tax has overshadowed parts of the federal budget that the business community would otherwise be excited about.
“There were definitely some other stars in the budget that were interesting,” he said. “However, the … capital gains piece really is the sun, and it’s daylight. So this is really the only thing that innovators can see.”
The CCI has written and is circulating an open letter signed by more than 1,000 people in the Canadian business community to Trudeau’s government asking it to scrap the tax change.
Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke and president Harley Finkelstein also weighed in on the proposed hike on X, formerly known as Twitter.
We need to be doing everything we can to turn Canada into the best place for entrepreneurs to build 🇨🇦<br><br>What’s proposed in the federal budget will do the complete opposite. Innovators and entrepreneurs will suffer and their success will be penalized — this is not a wealth tax,…
—@harleyf
Former finance minister Bill Morneau said his successor’s budget disincentivizes businesses from investing in the country’s innovation sector: “It’s probably very troubling for many investors.”
Canada’s productivity — a measure that compares economic output to hours worked — has been relatively poor for decades. It underperforms against the OECD average and against several other G7 countries, including the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan, on the measure.
Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers sounded the alarm on Canada’s lagging productivity in a speech last month, saying the country’s need to increase the rate had reached emergency levels, following one of the weakest years for the economy in recent memory.
The government said it was proposing the tax change to make life more affordable for younger generations and fund efforts to boost housing supply — and that it would support productivity growth.
A challenge for investors, founders and workers
The change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access funding in a high interest rate environment, said Bergen.
He questioned whether investors will want to fund Canadian companies if the government’s taxation policies make it difficult for those firms to grow — and whether founders might just pack up.
The expanded inclusion rate “is just one of the other potential concerns that firms are going to have as they’re looking to grow their companies.”
He said the rejigged tax is also an affront to high-skilled workers from low-innovation sectors who might have taken the risk of joining a startup for the opportunity, even taking a lower wage on the chance that a firm’s stock options grow in value.
But Lindsay Tedds, an associate economics professor at the University of Calgary, said the tax change is one of the most misunderstood parts of the federal budget — and that its impact on the country’s talent has been overstated.
“This is not a major innovation-biting tax change treatment,” Tedds said. “In fact, when you talk to real grassroots entrepreneurs that are setting up businesses, tax rates do not come into their decision.”
As for productivity, Tedds said Canadians might see improvements in the long run “to the degree that some of our productivity problems are driven by stresses like housing affordability, access to child care, things like that.”
‘One foot on the gas, one foot on the brake’
Some say the government is sending mixed messages to entrepreneurs by touting tailored tax breaks — like the Canada Entrepreneurs’ Incentive, which reduces the capital gains inclusion rate to 33 per cent on a lifetime maximum of $2 million — while introducing measures they say would dampen investment and innovation.
“They seem to have one foot on the gas, one foot on the brake on the very same file,” said Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.
Some business groups are worried that new capital gains tax changes could hurt economic growth. But according to Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez, most Canadians won’t be impacted by that change — and it’s a move to create fairness.
A founder may be able to sell their successful company with a lower capital gains treatment than otherwise possible, he said.
“At the same time, though, big chunks of it may be subject to a higher rate of capital gains inclusion.”
Selling a company can fund an individual’s retirement, he said, which is why it’s one of the first things founders consider when they think about capital gains.
Mainstreet NS7:03Ottawa is proposing a hike to capital gains tax. What does that mean?
Tuesday’s federal budget includes nearly $53 billion in new spending over the next five years with a clear focus on affordability and housing. To help pay for some of that new spending, Ottawa is proposing a hike to the capital gains tax. Moshe Lander, an economics lecturer at Concordia University, joins host Jeff Douglas to explain.
Dennis Darby, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, says he was disappointed by the change — and that it sends the wrong message to Canadian industries like his own.
He wants to see the government commit to more tax credit proposals like the Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses, which he said would incentivize business owners to stay and help make Canada competitive with the U.S.
“We’ve had a lot of difficulties attracting investment over the years. I don’t think this will make it any better.”
Tech titan says change will only impact richest of the rich
Toronto tech entrepreneur Ali Asaria will be one of those subject to the expanded capital gains inclusion rate — but he says it’s only fair.
“It’s going to really affect the richest of the rich people,” Asaria, CEO of open source platform Transformer Lab and founder of well.ca, told CBC News.
“The capital gains exemption is probably the largest tax break that I’ve ever received in my life,” he said. “So I know a lot about what that benefit can look like, but I’ve also always felt like it was probably one of the most unfair parts of the tax code today.”
While Asaria said Canada needs to continue encouraging talent to take risks and build companies in the country, taxation policies aren’t the most major problem.
“I think that the biggest central issue to the reason why people will leave Canada is bigger issues, like housing,” he said.
“How do we make it easier to live in Canada so that we can all invest in ourselves and invest in our companies? That’s a more important question than, ‘How do we help the top 0.13 per cent of Canadians make more money?'”
More money will land in the pockets of Canadian families on Friday for the latest Canada Child Benefit (CCB) installment.
The federal government program helps low and middle-income families struggling with the soaring cost of raising a child.
Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or refugees who are the primary caregivers for children under 18 years old are eligible for the program, introduced in 2016.
The non-taxable monthly payments are based on a family’s net income and how many children they have. Families that have an adjusted net income under $34,863 will receive the maximum amount per child.
For a child under six years old, an applicant can annually receive up to $7,437 per child, and up to $6,275 per child for kids between the ages of six through 17.
That translates to up to $619.75 per month for the younger cohort and $522.91 per month for the older group.
The benefit is recalculated every July and most recently increased 6.3 per cent in order to adjust to the rate of inflation, and cost of living.
To apply, an applicant can submit through a child’s birth registration, complete an online form or mail in an application to a tax centre.
The next payment date will take place on May 17.
Keffiyehs remain banned in the Ontario Legislature after a unanimous consent motion that would have allowed the scarf to be worn failed to pass at Queen’s Park Thursday.
That vote, brought forth by NDP Leader Marit Stiles, failed despite Premier Doug Ford and the leaders of the province’s opposition parties all stating they want to see the ban overturned. Complete agreement from all MPPs is required for a motion like this to pass, and there were a smattering of “nos” after it was read into the record.
In an email on Wednesday, Speaker Ted Arnott said the legislature has previously restricted the wearing of clothing that is intended to make an “overt political statement” because it upholds a “standard practice of decorum.”
“The Speaker cannot be aware of the meaning of every symbol or pattern but when items are drawn to my attention, there is a responsibility to respond. After extensive research, I concluded that the wearing of keffiyehs at the present time in our Assembly is intended to be a political statement. So, as Speaker, I cannot authorize the wearing of keffiyehs based on our longstanding conventions,” Arnott said in an email.
Speaking at Queen’s Park Thursday, Arnott said he would reconsider the ban with unanimous consent from MPPs.
“If the house believes that the wearing of the keffiyeh in this house, at the present time, is not a political statement, I would certainly and unequivocally accept the express will of the house with no ifs, ands or buts,” he said.
Keffiyehs are a commonly worn scarf among Arabs, but hold special significance to Palestinian people. They have been a frequent sight among pro-Palestinian protesters calling for an end to the violence in Gaza as the Israel-Hamas war continues.
Premier calls for reversal
Ford said Thursday he’s hopeful Arnott will reverse the ban, but he didn’t say if he would instruct his caucus to support the NDP’s motion.
In a statement issued Wednesday, Ford said the decision was made by the speaker and nobody else.
“I do not support his decision as it needlessly divides the people of our province. I call on the speaker to reverse his decision immediately,” Ford said.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford reiterated Thursday that he does not support Speaker Ted Arnott banning keffiyehs in the Ontario Legislature because they are “intended to be a political statement,” as Arnott said in an email Wednesday.
PC Party MPP Robin Martin, who represents Eglinton–Lawrence, voted against the unanimous consent motion Thursday and told reporters she believes the speaker’s initial ruling was the correct one.
“We have to follow the rules of the legislature, otherwise we politicize the entire debate inside the legislature, and that’s not what it’s about. What it’s about is we come there and use our words to persuade, not items of clothing.”
When asked if she had defied a directive from the premier, Martin said, “It has nothing to do with the premier, it’s a decision of the speaker of the legislative assembly.”
Stiles told reporters Thursday she’s happy Ford is on her side on this issue, but added she is disappointed the motion didn’t pass.
“The premier needs to talk to his people and make sure they do the right thing,” she said.
Stiles first urged Arnott to reconsider the ban in an April 12 letter. She said concerns over the directive first surfaced after being flagged by members of her staff, however they have gained prominence after Sarah Jama, Independent MPP for Hamilton Centre, posted about the issue on X, formerly Twitter.
Jama was removed from the NDP caucus for her social media comments on the Israel-Hamas war shortly after Oct. 7.
Jama has said she believes she was kicked out of the party because she called for a ceasefire in Gaza “too early” and because she called Israel an “apartheid state.”
Arnott told reporters Thursday that he began examining a ban on the Keffiyeh after one MPP made a complaint about another MPP, who he believes was Jama, who was wearing one.
Liberals also call for reversal
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie also called for a reversal of the ban on Wednesday night.
“Here in Ontario, we are home to a diverse group of people from so many backgrounds. This is a time when leaders should be looking for ways to bring people together, not to further divide us. I urge Speaker Arnott to immediately reconsider this move to ban the keffiyeh,” Crombie said.
Keffiyehs are a common garment across the Arab world, but they hold a special meaning in the Palestinian resistance movement.
Stiles said MPPs have worn kilts, kirpans, vyshyvankas and chubas in the legislature, saying such items of clothing not only have national and cultural associations, but have also been considered at times as “political symbols in need of suppression.”
She said Indigenous and non-Indigenous members have also dressed in traditional regalia and these items cannot be separated from their historical and political significance.
“The wearing of these important cultural and national clothing items in our Assembly is something we should be proud of. It is part of the story of who we are as a province,” she said.
“Palestinians are part of that story, and the keffiyeh is a traditional clothing item that is significant not only to them but to many members of Arab and Muslim communities. That includes members of my staff who have been asked to remove their keffiyehs in order to come to work. This is unacceptable.”
Stiles added that House of Commons and other provincial legislatures allow the wearing of keffiyehs in their chambers and the ban makes Ontario an “outlier.”
Suppression of cultural symbols part of genocide: MPP
Jama said on X that the ban is “unsurprising” but “nonetheless concerning” in a country that has a legacy of colonialism. “Part of committing genocide is the forceful suppression of cultural identity and cultural symbols,” she said in part.
“Seeing those in power in this country at all levels of government, from federal all the way down to school boards, aid Israel’s colonial regime with these tactics in the oppression of Palestinian people proves that reconciliation is nothing but a word when spoken by state powers,” she said.
Amira Elghawaby, Canada’s Special Representative on Combatting Islamophobia, said on X that it is “deeply ironic” on that keffiyehs were banned in the Ontario legislature on the 42nd anniversary of Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
“This is wrong and dangerous as we have already seen violence and exclusion impact Canadians, including Muslims of Palestinian descent, who choose to wear this traditional Palestinian clothing,” Elghawaby said.
Arnott said the keffiyeh was not considered a “form of protest” in the legislature prior to statements and debates that happened in the House last fall.
“These items are not absolutes and are not judged in a vacuum,” he said.
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