IMF keeps Canada 2026 growth at 1.1%, U.S. at 2.3%

The International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 13 that Canada’s economy will grow 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.7 per cent in 2027, unchanged from its July forecast, in its latest World Economic Outlook.

That leaves Canada behind the United States, which the IMF projects at 2.3 per cent growth this year, and behind Germany and Britain at 1.3 per cent each, according to a table of the fund’s forecasts published by Reuters through Channels Television. Among the Group of Seven countries, only France (0.4 per cent), Japan (0.7 per cent) and Italy (0.8 per cent) are forecast to grow more slowly than Canada in 2026.

Global growth is forecast at 3.1 per cent in 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from July, and 3.4 per cent in 2027, Fortune reported. The IMF raised its 2026 forecast for advanced economies by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1 per cent, while it cut its forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by one percentage point, to a contraction of 0.3 per cent.

HR Reporter said the 1.1 per cent figure for Canada is down from 1.9 per cent growth in 2025 and 0.4 percentage points below the IMF’s April projection, and attributed the weaker outlook to the energy shock from the war involving Iran and to trade uncertainty. Canada’s inflation is forecast at 2.5 per cent in 2026, according to the IMF’s Canada page, though the page does not say which edition of the outlook that figure comes from.

“The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s director of research, said, according to Fortune. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described the effect of artificial intelligence on jobs as “a slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless,” Fortune reported.

The forecast rests on two assumptions that Canadians can track at the pump and the grocery store. Fortune reported that the IMF assumes oil averages $96 a barrel and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes by March. If that does not happen, the fund’s risk list, which also includes an AI-related stock market correction, rising bond yields, cyberattacks and high debt, would weigh on the numbers. Our earlier reporting on a diesel spike that could make winter groceries pricier shows how that energy shock already reaches household budgets.

For Canada, the comparison with its two partners in the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement stands out. The IMF projects Mexico at 1.5 per cent in 2026 and 1.8 per cent in 2027, according to the same table, so both CUSMA partners are forecast to outgrow Canada this year. Canadian auto and trade rules are under review in Washington, as we reported when a U.S. panel heard testimony on CUSMA auto rules of origin.

The forecast landed during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, which run to Oct. 18. Georgieva opened them by warning that “winter is coming” for the global economy, as we reported on Oct. 12, and Group of 20 finance chiefs ended their Bangkok talks without a joint statement.

The next Canadian marker is the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Oct. 28, where economists expect the bank to hold its policy rate.

The IMF said global growth is steady but uneven across countries in its July summary. Figures in this story come from Reuters’ table of the October forecasts, Fortune and HR Reporter, and the IMF’s Canada page; we have not read the full October report ourselves, and the IMF’s own pages we could open still showed the July update.

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Via Reuters (Channels Television), Fortune and HR Reporter.