Chow, Bradford in statistical tie a week before vote

Toronto’s mayoral race is a statistical tie less than a week before voters go to the polls, according to a new Nanos Research survey released Tuesday.

The poll, conducted for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, put incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow at 49.8 per cent among decided voters and challenger Brad Bradford at 46.6 per cent. Another candidate drew four per cent. The gap of 3.2 percentage points is inside the survey’s margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Nanos surveyed 762 Toronto residents aged 18 and older from Oct. 15 to Oct. 18. The hybrid random survey was split between telephone and online interviews and weighted by region, age and gender.

The share of undecided respondents fell to 16 per cent from 22 per cent in the Oct. 6 Nanos poll, which showed Chow with a lead of nearly 10 points. Chris Alexander, who suspended his campaign on Oct. 6, is no longer a factor in the numbers.

Nik Nanos, CTV News’ chief data scientist, said the deciding factors will be debate performance and the “organizational muscle to deliver supporters.” He said “things can still change ahead of the Oct. 26 vote.”

Bradford, a city councillor, said Chow has “put nothing forward in this campaign.” Chow said her strategy for the final days is to “talk about how we have worked together to make life more affordable.”

The narrowing matches a trend visible in earlier surveys. A Mainstreet Research poll reported by CBC News earlier this month also showed Bradford closing on Chow’s lead, and our earlier look at the two-way race noted that the contest had narrowed to Chow and Bradford once Alexander left. Chow led by a clearer margin when advance voting opened.

City data cited by CBC News showed advance voter turnout jumped nearly 72 per cent from the 2023 byelection, a sign of higher engagement that could make late organizing more important. Transit and road policy have been among the campaign’s flashpoints, including the removal of Bloor Street bike lanes, which led to an arrest at a protest last week.

The two candidates are set to meet in “Toronto Decides: The Municipal Debate,” broadcast live on CP24, CP24.com and the CP24 app on Oct. 22 at 7 p.m. Election day is Oct. 26.

Via CP24 and CTV News Toronto, which commissioned the Nanos poll.

If you find reporting like this useful, consider supporting Canada News Media, an independent Canadian newsroom with no corporate parent.