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Economy

Australia Puts Policy Pause Back on the Table as Economy Slows

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(Bloomberg) — Australia’s central bank will consider pausing its policy tightening cycle next month given interest-rate settings are already restrictive and the economic outlook remains uncertain, minutes of its March meeting showed.

The Reserve Bank delivered its 10th consecutive rate hike two weeks ago to take the cash rate to 3.6% as board members judged inflation in Australia is “too high” and the labor market “very tight,” minutes of the March 7 meeting showed Tuesday.

Even so, the RBA board returned to the question of standing pat during its discussions.

“Members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognizing that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy,” the minutes showed. ”At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by data and the board’s assessment of the outlook.”

While the minutes are dated given the banking sector stress that has roiled financial markets across the world, they show Australian policymakers were already focused on economic uncertainties ranging from the outlook for household consumption to credit growth.

“Members noted that monetary policy was in restrictive territory and that the economic outlook was uncertain,” the minutes showed. “The outlook for consumption remained a key source of uncertainty.” Board members also discussed the “significant financial pressures” that some households are experiencing.

Overnight indexed swaps have swung significantly since the banking crisis in the US and Europe and now imply the RBA will stand pat at its April 4 meeting and then begin cutting in August. Money markets now signal that the global monetary tightening cycle is all but done.

All eyes will be on a number of major central bank meetings over the coming days, led by the Federal Reserve with its decision likely to influence the RBA’s call next month.

Assistant Governor Chris Kent this week sought to alleviate concerns the banking crisis will become systemic, maintaining Australian lenders are “unquestionably strong” with solid balance sheets and capital positions.

Australia has lagged international peers in the scale of its rate increases, reflecting Governor Philip Lowe’s efforts to bring the economy in for a soft landing. The minutes showed the RBA’s tightening bias remained intact however, with a monthly inflation indicator and retail sales data – due next week – gaining extra prominence.

The RBA’s rapid-fire rate hikes have created a political problem for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as he tries to persuade a heavily indebted electorate grappling with rising living costs that the pain of increased borrowing costs is preferable to entrenched inflation.

The government will release its budget in May, which is likely to have some targeted cost relief measures, although Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said it will keep a tight leash on fiscal spending to avoid further fueling consumer prices.

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Mark Carney to lead Liberal economic task force ahead of next election

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will chair a Liberal task force on economic growth, the party announced Monday as Liberal MPs meet to strategize for the upcoming election year.

Long touted as a possible leadership successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Carney was already scheduled to address caucus as part of the retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., this week.

The Liberals say he will help shape the party’s policies for the next election, and will report to Trudeau and the Liberal platform committee.

“As chair of the Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth, Mark’s unique ideas and perspectives will play a vital role in shaping the next steps in our plan to continue to grow our economy and strengthen the middle class, and to urgently seize new opportunities for Canadian jobs and prosperity in a fast-changing world,” Trudeau said in a statement Monday.

Trudeau is expected to address Liberal members of Parliament later this week. It will be the first time he faces them as a group since MPs left Ottawa in the spring.

Still stinging from a devastating byelection loss earlier this summer, the caucus is now also reeling from news that its national campaign director has resigned and the party can no longer count on the NDP to stave off an early election.

Last week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ended his agreement with Trudeau to have the New Democrats support the government on key votes in exchange for movement on priorities such as dental care.

All of this comes as the Liberals remain well behind the Conservatives in the polls despite efforts to refocus on issues like housing and affordability.

Some Liberal MPs hope to hear more about how Trudeau plans to win Canadians back when he addresses his team this week.

Carney appears to be part of that plan, attempting to bring some economic heft to a government that has struggled to resonate with voters who are struggling with inflation and soaring housing costs.

Trudeau said several weeks ago that he has long tried to coax Carney to join his government. The economist and former investment banker spent five years as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the last Conservative government before hopping across the pond to head up the Bank of England for seven years.

Carney is just one of a host of names suggested as possible successors to Trudeau, who has insisted he will lead the party into the next election despite simmering calls for him to step aside.

Those calls reached a new intensity earlier this summer when the Conservatives won a longtime Liberal stronghold in a major byelection upset in Toronto—St. Paul’s.

But Trudeau held fast to his decision to stay and rejected calls to convene his entire caucus over the summer to respond to their concerns about their collective prospects.

The prime minister has spoken with Liberal MPs one-on-one over the last few months and attended several regional meetings ahead of the Nanaimo retreat, including Ontario and Quebec, which together account for 70 per cent of the caucus.

While several Liberals who don’t feel comfortable speaking publicly say the meetings were positive, the party leader has mainly held to his message that he is simply focused on “delivering for Canadians.”

Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer was in Nanaimo ahead of the meeting to express his scorn for the Liberal strategy session, and for Carney’s involvement.

“It doesn’t matter what happens in this retreat, doesn’t matter what kinds of (communications) exercise they go through, or what kind of speculation they all entertain about who might lead them in the next election,” said Scheer, who called a small press conference on the Nanaimo harbourfront Monday.

“It’s the same failed Liberal policies causing the same hardships for Canadians.”

He said Carney and Trudeau are “basically the same people,” and that Carney has supported Liberal policies, including the carbon tax.

The three-day retreat is expected to include breakout meetings for the Indigenous, rural and women’s caucuses before the full group convenes later this week.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Here’s a quick glance at unemployment rates for August, by province

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OTTAWA – Canada’s national unemployment rate was 6.6 per cent in August. Here are the jobless rates last month by province (numbers from the previous month in brackets):

_ Newfoundland and Labrador 10.4 per cent (9.6)

_ Prince Edward Island 8.2 per cent (8.9)

_ Nova Scotia 6.7 per cent (7.0)

_ New Brunswick 6.5 per cent (7.2)

_ Quebec 5.7 per cent (5.7)

_ Ontario 7.1 per cent (6.7)

_ Manitoba 5.8 per cent (5.7)

_ Saskatchewan 5.4 per cent (5.4)

_ Alberta 7.7 per cent (7.1)

_ British Columbia 5.8 per cent (5.5)

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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