Canada warmed 2 C since 1948, climate report finds

Canada warmed by an estimated 2.0 C between 1948 and 2023, and the North warmed by 2.6 C, according to Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026, released by Environment and Climate Change Canada on Oct. 12.

The report said Canada has warmed nearly twice as fast as the global average since 1970, while the Canadian Arctic has warmed about three times as fast. It is the federal government’s scientific assessment of how and why the country’s climate is changing and what is projected next.

Annual precipitation across Canada rose by an estimated 9.7 per cent between 1949 and 2023, the report said. In the North the increase was 18.9 per cent. It attributed most of the national increase to human influence on the climate.

Looking ahead, the report projected Canada will warm by about 0.9 C between 2021 and 2040 regardless of the emissions scenario. That would bring average Canadian temperatures to roughly 2.7 C above pre-industrial levels over that period.

The assessment said climate extremes are expected to intensify. Summer droughts are projected to become longer, more frequent and more severe across central and southern Canada, while heavier rainfall and stronger atmospheric-river events are expected to raise the risk of flash floods.

It also described changes already under way, including longer fire seasons, glacier loss, permafrost thaw, declining snow and sea ice, warming and acidifying oceans, marine heatwaves and rising sea levels. The report said many of these changes will continue even after surface temperatures stabilize.

The findings come as Canada weighs the costs of a warming climate. As Canada News Media reported, climate-driven wildfires could cost the country $2.1 trillion by 2100, and a recent UN assessment said the 1.5 C target is out of reach. Our look at a possible super El Niño and a milder winter covers the near-term outlook.

The full report is available from the Canada in a Changing Climate assessment program, which is led by the federal government.

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