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Researcher predicts 4,000 daily new COVID-19 cases in Alberta by mid-December if measures not taken – CBC.ca

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A researcher is sounding the alarm about Alberta’s significant increase in the number of new and active cases of COVID-19, warning that things could rapidly get worse in the province should additional measures not be taken.

Malgorzata Gasperowicz, a developmental biologist and associate in the school of medicine at the University of Calgary, says that given the province’s current doubling time, the province could be reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day by Nov. 11.

But Gasperowicz also told CBC Calgary News at 6 that without “strong, decisive measures” given the province’s current doubling time, Alberta could see around 2,400 daily new cases of COVID-19 on Dec. 5, and 4,800 on Dec. 23.

WATCH | Malgorzata Gasperowicz discusses the COVID-19 numbers Alberta could be seeing in the coming months:

Malgorzata Gasperowicz, a developmental biologist at the University of Calgary, talks to CBC’s Rob Brown about what she’s seeing in the province’s latest COVID-19 numbers during CBC Calgary News at 6. 4:22

But even should the province shut everything down today, it’s not as though the numbers will instantly drop.

“They usually take like, what we [saw] in the first wave in [introducing restrictions], it took at least three or four weeks to see the cases drop down,” Gasperowicz said. “So we will still be doubling for three weeks at least.”

That would mean the province would still be seeing around 1,600 or 2,000 daily new cases before dropping down, Gasperowicz said.

Given a situation where the province shut down on Nov. 15, Gasperowicz said, the province would see 3,000 daily new cases before bending the curve.

Alberta at ‘a tipping point’

On Monday, Alberta introduced new social gathering restrictions, bringing in mandatory limits of 15 people in Edmonton and Calgary. 

“You have heard me say many times that we need to achieve a balance between minimizing the risk of COVID-19 and minimizing the risk of harms of restrictions,” Dr. Deena Hinshaw, the province’s chief medical officer of health, said during a news conference.

“This requires us to keep the spread of COVID-19 manageable. We have now crossed a tipping point and are losing the balance we have been seeking.”

WATCH | Dr. Hinshaw says Alberta is at a tipping point for COVID-19 

Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, says the province has ‘now crossed a tipping point and are losing the balance we have been seeking’ when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic. 1:26

When asked whether the province would consider implementing another shutdown, Tom McMillan, a spokesperson with Alberta Health, pointed to the measures introduced Monday.

“We announced new measures on Monday. We are watching the data in Alberta closely and will consider if adjustments to the public health approach are needed in the days to come,” McMillan said in an email.

Speaking Thursday, Hinshaw reiterated that the province’s focus at this time was to strike “a difficult, but necessary balance when responding to COVID-19.”

“We must follow the evidence, and take the steps needed to prevent cases from rising exponentially and overwhelming our health system,” Hinshaw said.

“At the same time, every element of Albertans’ health is important. We must also limit the harms that our measures can have, as much as possible.”

Implementing ‘strong measures’

Gasperowicz pointed to a “cocktail of measures” that have worked to decrease numbers in other western jurisdictions.

“I’m convinced that if strong measures would be implemented, we would have the decrease,” she said. “But if we won’t implement strong measures and just have little tweaks, I don’t think it will slow the virus down.

“Strong measures worked in Australia, and they have zero cases now, and they’re celebrating.”

Speaking Thursday, Hinshaw said the choice is not between implementing another lockdown or letting COVID-19 run unimpeded.

“Instead, we must make it as easy and safe as possible for Albertans to live with this virus for the foreseeable future,” she said.

One day before Halloween, Alberta reported 622 new cases of the virus, a new daily record. It pushed the number of active cases in the province to a record 5,172.

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Coronavirus: 19 deaths, 354 new cases in Manitoba Saturday | CTV News – CTV News

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WINNIPEG —
In Manitoba’s deadliest day, health officials are reporting 19 new COVID-19 deaths and 354 new cases of the disease.

Announced in the province’s daily COVID-19 bulletin on Saturday, all of the deaths except one are from Winnipeg.

The deaths from Winnipeg not linked to senior facilities include a woman in her 20s, a man in his 60s, two women in their 70s, a man in his 70s, a man in his 80s and a woman in her 90s.

Three deaths, a man in his 70s, a man in his 80s and a woman in her 90s are linked to the outbreak at St. Norbert Personal Care Home.

Another three deaths, a man in his 70s, a woman in her 90s and a man in his 90s, are linked to the outbreak at Park Manor Care Home.

Health officials also said a woman in her 90s and a woman in her 100s, both linked to the outbreak at Holy Family Home, died of COVID-19.

A woman in her 70s inked to the outbreak at Oakview Place personal care home and a man in his 90s linked to the outbreak at Bethania Mennonite Personal Care Home also died of the virus.

The only death outside of the Winnipeg region was a woman in her 60s from the Northern health region linked to the outbreak at The Pas Hospital Acute Care.

The number of deaths in the province related to COVID-19 rises to 381.

Along with the 19 deaths, 354 cases of the virus were announced.

Of the new cases, 235 are in Winnipeg, which has a five-day test positivity rate of 14.1 per cent.

The total number of cases in Manitoba since early March is 18,423.

The province currently has 9,115 active cases, and 8,927 people have recovered from the virus.

The current provincial five-day test positivity rate now sits at 13.1 per cent.

There are 349 people in hospital with COVID-19, down slightly from Friday, with 51 patients in intensive care.

On Friday, 2,981 tests were performed, bringing the total to 369,154 since early February.

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Six new cases of COVID-19, province reports – HalifaxToday.ca

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NEWS RELEASE
COVID-19/HEALTH/WELLNESS
*************************

As of today, Dec. 5, Nova Scotia has 95 active cases of COVID-19. Six new cases are being reported today. 

Four of the new cases are in Central Zone and two cases are in Eastern Zone. All are under investigation.

“As we get into the holiday season, weekends are usually filled with friends, family and shopping, but this year must be different,” said Premier Stephen McNeil. “We need to limit our social contacts and non-essential travel, and follow all the other public health protocols. That is how we protect each other and slow the spread of COVID-19.”

Nova Scotia Health Authority’s labs completed 1,410 Nova Scotia tests on Dec. 4.

Yesterday there were 276 tests administered at the rapid-testing pop-up site in Halifax. There were no positive test results identified at the site.

Since Oct. 1, Nova Scotia has completed 74,664 tests. There have been 275 positive COVID-19 cases and no deaths. No one is currently in hospital. Cases range in age from under 10 to over 70. One hundred and eighty cases are now resolved. Cumulative cases may change as data is updated in Panorama.

“It is encouraging to see new case numbers go below the double-digits we have been seeing but it is too soon to relax now,” said Dr. Robert Strang, Nova Scotia’s chief medical officer of health. “We must remain diligent and continue to follow public health orders and advice so we can keep our citizens safe.”

Visit https://covid-self-assessment.novascotia.ca/ to do a self-assessment if in the past 48 hours you have had or you are currently experiencing:
— fever (i.e. chills/sweats) or cough (new or worsening) 

Or:
Two or more of the following symptoms (new or worsening):
— sore throat
— runny nose/nasal congestion
— headache
— shortness of breath/difficulty breathing

Call 811 if you cannot access the online self-assessment or wish to speak with a nurse about your symptoms.

When a new case of COVID-19 is confirmed, public health works to identify and test people who may have come in close contact with that person. Those individuals who have been confirmed are being directed to self-isolate at home, away from the public, for 14 days.

Anyone who has travelled outside of Atlantic Canada must self-isolate for 14 days. As always, any Nova Scotian who develops symptoms of acute respiratory illness should limit their contact with others until they feel better. 

It remains important for Nova Scotians to strictly adhere to the public health order and directives – practise good hand washing and other hygiene steps, maintain a physical distance when and where required. Wearing a non-medical mask is mandatory in most indoor public places.

Rules concerning interprovincial travel within Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador have changed. The premiers of all four Atlantic provinces are cautioning against non-essential travel into neighbouring provinces. Currently, all non-essential travel into Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador requires a 14-day self-isolation. All public health directives of each province must be followed. Under Nova Scotia’s Health Protection Act order, visitors from outside Atlantic Canada must self-isolate for 14 days unless they completed their self-isolation in another Atlantic province.

Nova Scotians can find accurate, up-to-date information, handwashing posters and fact sheets at https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus .

Businesses and other organizations can find information to help them safely reopen at https://novascotia.ca/reopening-nova-scotia .

Quick Facts:
— testing numbers are updated daily at https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus
— a state of emergency was declared under the Emergency Management Act on March 22 and extended to Dec. 13
— online booking for COVID-19 testing appointments is available for Nova Scotians getting a test at all primary assessment centres or at the IWK Health Centre in Halifax 

Additional Resources:
Government of Canada: https://canada.ca/coronavirus

Government of Canada information line 1-833-784-4397 (toll-free)

The Mental Health Provincial Crisis Line is available 24/7 to anyone experiencing a mental health or addictions crisis, or someone concerned about them, by calling 1-888-429-8167 (toll-free)

Kids Help Phone is available 24/7 by calling 1-800-668-6868 (toll-free)

For help or information about domestic violence 24/7, call 1-855-225-0220 (toll-free)

For more information about COVID-19 testing and online booking, visit https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/symptoms-and-testing/

The COVID-19 self-assessment is at https://covid-self-assessment.novascotia.ca/

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Record 19 COVID-19 deaths in Manitoba Saturday, including woman in her 20s – CBC.ca

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A record 19 more people have died from COVID-19 in Manitoba, including a woman from the Winnipeg health region in her 20s.

The province also announced 354 new cases of the illness in a Saturday news release.

The total number of deaths related to the illness is now 381.

More than 240 COVID-19 deaths were reported in Manitoba in November, and there have now been 70 in the first five days of December alone. That includes 16 deaths — Manitoba’s previous one-day high — reported on Tuesday.

Over half of the deaths announced Saturday are related to outbreaks at Winnipeg personal care homes, including:

  • Three at Park Manor Care Home (a man in his 70s, a man in his 90s and a woman in her 90s).
  • Three at St. Norbert Personal Care Home (a man in his 70s, a man in his 80s and a woman in her 90s).
  • Two at Holy Family Home (a woman in her 90s and a woman over the age of 100).
  • A man in his 90s at Bethania Mennonite Personal Care Home.
  • A woman in her 70s at Oakview Place Personal Care Home.

A woman in her 60s linked to the outbreak at The Pas Hospital acute care also died.

The woman in her 20s is the second-youngest person in Manitoba to die from the illness, after the death of a boy under the age of 10 last week.

Seven other people from the Winnipeg health region have died, including a man in his 50s, a man in his 60s, two women and a man in their 70s, a man in his 80s and a woman in her 90s.

Number in hospital drops

There are now 349 people in hospital with COVID-19, including 51 in intensive care. Those numbers are down from record highs on Friday of 361 in hospital and 55 in intensive care.

Of the new cases, 235 are in Winnipeg, 44 in the Southern Health region, 32 in the Interlake-Eastern health region, 31 in the Northern Health region and 12 cases in the Prairie Mountain Health Region.

Manitoba’s five-day COVID-19 test positivity rate — a rolling average of the COVID-19 tests that come back positive — is 13.1 per cent provincially, down slightly from 13.4 per cent on Friday. In Winnipeg, the rate fell to 14.1 per cent from 14.6 per cent.

There are currently 9,115 active cases listed in the province, and 8,927 have recovered.

Two new COVID-19 outbreaks were also reported Saturday. The Milner Ridge Correctional Centre near Beausejour and Greendale Estate assisted living facility in Grunthal have both been moved to the critical, or red level of the province’s pandemic response system.

Previously declared outbreaks in the GA4 unit at the Health Sciences Centre in Winnipeg and at Seymour Pacific Developments Ltd. in Brandon are now over.

Saturday’s update comes a day after the province released projections on Friday that suggest sweeping restrictions in Manitoba have barely kept the province from its worst-case scenario for daily COVID-19 cases, which assumes few restrictions and poor compliance in the province.

There were 320 new cases announced in the province on Friday.

The province also said Saturday that 2,981 tests were completed on Friday. That brings the total number of lab tests completed since early February to 369,154. 

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