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Treasury yields climb on bets for June U.S. Fed hike

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The S&P 500 Index closed nearly flat and the two-year Treasury yield added more than 10 basis points after data showed that inflation remained high. Two Federal Reserve officials then warned that the remedy might require higher interest rates for a long period of time, though one policymaker suggested that the end might be near.

Swaps contracts showed traders gave near-even odds for a quarter-point rate increase by the Fed in June, following similar hikes in March and May. The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rose past 4.6 per cent.

Equity indexes fell in the morning as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin told Bloomberg TV that the central bank might “have to do more” to fight inflation and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rate increases could last “for a longer period than previously anticipated.”

But stocks pared losses after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said that policymakers were nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough: “In my view, we are not done yet … but we are likely close.”

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“Stocks are probably rising due to Harker,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “Close to done on tightening is vague, but certainly not a hawkish tone.”

Equity bulls clung to one CPI component that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has singled out as a must-watch: The so-called super-core figure, or core services minus housing, came in at a slower 0.3 per cent pace in the month.

But Win Thin, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, wasn’t buying this super-core argument.

“If the market and the Fed have to get THIS granular to somehow weave an inflation argument, then they’ve lost the argument,” he wrote in a text. “Core core core core inflation? C’mon man!”

Here is what other Wall Street analysts were saying about CPI and the Fed:

Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners:

“We’ve seen lots of Fedspeak in both directions, so this is just one more data point. However, investors are really puzzled with today’s CPI print and perhaps the Harker comments help cement a bullish theme of Fed easing later this year.”

Michael Contopoulos, head of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors:  

“If you think inflation is going to stick around for a while, as we do, then it also means the Fed needs to continue to hike until they really destroy demand. This means they need to crack labor. If you crack labor, long term growth and inflation expectations need to fall as a ‘hard landing’ scenario becomes more likely.”

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen:

“The Fed has won every single one of these battles over the last 18 months — every time the markets have tried to price out or discount the Fed’s rhetoric or their forecasts, the markets have basically lost that fight, they’ve lost that game of chicken.”

Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors:

“We continue to forecast inflation will rapidly decline as the BLS slowly reflects the reality of housing deflation in their estimate of shelter inflation. This lag is approximately 12 months, so second half inflation numbers should come down rapidly.”

John Plassard, investment specialist at Mirabaud:

“It’s the seventh month in a row of inflation going lower, the disinflation narrative is not threatened — on the contrary. It must be said there were some worries around a bad surprise so this is reassuring before the next meeting of the Fed.”

Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management:

“Our own view is that yields are more likely to head higher as we think the Fed remain hawkish for the time being. This poses a headwind for equities.”

Oil fell for a second day after the announcement that the U.S. was selling more crude from its strategic reserves.

The yen rose following the formal nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan governor. Argentina’s annual inflation rate hit 99 per cent. And Turkey prepared to channel billions of liras into its stock market, which will reopen Wednesday after the devastating earthquakes Feb. 6.

Key events:

  • U.S. retail sales, UK CPI Wednesday
  • U.S. jobless claims, Australia unemployment, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at Global Interdependence Center event Thursday
  • France CPI, Russia GDP Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

  • Stocks
  • The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:05 p.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7 per cent to the highest since Feb. 7
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5 per cent
  • The MSCI World index rose 0.8 per cent, more than any closing gain since Feb. 7

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro rose 0.1 per cent to US$1.0738
  • The British pound rose 0.3 per cent to US$1.2175
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.5 per cent to 133.04 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin surged 2.5 per cent, more than any closing gain since Feb. 1
  • Ether surged 4.4 per cent, more than any closing gain since Jan. 29

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.75 per cent
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.44 per cent
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points, more than any closing advance since Feb. 6

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3 per cent to US$79.13 a barrel
  • Gold futures rose 0.2 per cent to US$1,866.30 an ounce
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How To Choose The Perfect Type Of Fundraiser For Your Cause

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Fundraiser

Raising funds for a cause is an important and rewarding task, though it can be a daunting one as well. With so many different types of fundraisers to consider, it can feel overwhelming to decide which will work best for your organization or cause. It’s essential to understand the impact that each type of fundraiser should have on your mission statement and financial goals to make an informed decision. Whether you are selecting more common fundraising activities such as carwashes and bake sales, or opting for virtual fundraisers like crowdfunding campaigns or silent auctions, our guide covers the basics of choosing the perfect type of fundraiser with tips from fellow fundraisers to maximize success. Keep reading if you want advice on deciding upon —and then executing—the most effective way to raise money for your organization!

Understand Your Resources and Goals

Before committing to a fundraiser, it’s essential to assess your organization’s goals and resources. Understanding and leveraging your available resources and matching them to your fundraising goals is key. Successful fundraising requires planning– look at what type of money you need to raise, and ask if some volunteers or sponsors might provide their time or services. It’s important to be realistic about the time, money, and effort needed for each fundraiser. Doing a little research about each event ahead of time can help lay out expectations and make your final decision easier. There’s no one-size-fits-all approach when it comes to fundraising, so it’s important to choose a style that works with your situation. And the first step is understanding what your resources and goals are.

Analyze the Target Audience for Your Fundraiser

Taking the time to analyze the target audience for your fundraiser is a vital step when planning your event. It’s important to consider the age group and interests of the people who will be attending, as well as any demographic factors that might be relevant. For example, if your cause is particularly local-based, it helps to know the population of the community to have an accurate sense of who your attendees will be. Having this information allows you to craft an event that’s geared specifically towards that audience, catering to their individual needs and interests. Doing so increases the likelihood of engagement and fundraising success. Furthermore, understanding who your target audience is can help with other decisions for your event, such as what types of food or activities would best suit them. All in all, knowledge about who will be attending gives you the ability to create a truly memorable fundraiser experience.

Research Different Fundraising Ideas

If you’re looking to raise money for your cause, there’s no shortage of possibilities. Before you decide on a fundraising method, it is important to do your research and consider all the options. Take some time to review popular options and explore which fundraising type is most applicable to what impact you’re hoping to have. You can use read a thon to raise money to support schools, extra-curricular programs, or new equipment; organize a virtual run to contribute towards medical research or a fund for people in need. It is important to understand the selling points, potential pitfalls, and details involved with running each kind of fundraiser before selecting one—without this additional information, you might select a type of fundraiser that won’t suit your needs. Doing your research will ensure that when it comes time to choose a fundraiser type, you’ll be making an informed decision that fits with your organization’s abilities and goals.

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Consider Both Online and Offline Fundraisers

When it comes to picking the right type of fundraiser for your cause, there are a lot of factors to consider. What will be easy to set up and organize, which demographics you’re hoping to reach, how to get adequate participation — the list goes on. Yet one important element not all organizers consider is how taking advantage of the internet can drive huge results while minimizing additional costs. Combining online and offline fundraisers presents a unique opportunity to gain traction from many different sources and keep your volunteers engaged — all with only minimal extra effort or time investment. Whether launching an electronic donation page, tracking sales data through social media platforms, or leveraging crowdfunding networks — getting measurable public engagement has never been easier or more powerful than today. So as you plan your fundraiser projects, don’t shy away from the event-boosting power of technology when trying to hit that final goal.

Consider the Cost of Your Fundraiser

While you may be primarily focused on raising the funds needed to support your cause, it is important to also pay close attention to the cost associated with your fundraiser. Not only should you consider the cost of purchasing supplies or materials for the event itself, but also look out for other costs that could arise such as renting a space and advertising fees. Doing thorough research ahead of time will ensure you select an appropriate fundraiser for your cause – one that fits within your budget. You may also want to consider utilizing a pro bono volunteer base or getting sponsorships from local businesses to help keep costs low. With the right combination of research and resourcefulness, you can find an effective way to raise money for your cause without breaking the bank.

Check out Other Fundraisers

Many fundraisers flop because organizers didn’t take the time to look at what other organizations have tried and succeeded with. Researching the successes and failures of other groups that have held similar fundraising activities can be a great starting point in determining which methods are likely to work for your cause. Internet searches, networking with other organizations, and reaching out to traditional media outlets are all great strategies to learn more about which strategies yield success for other charities. Taking the array of available activities into consideration and understanding the pros and cons of different methods will help you make the best decision for your cause.

Talk to Colleagues

One of the best ways to decide which type of fundraiser is the perfect fit for your cause is to collaborate with colleagues who have experience in the field. Talking to other fundraisers and asking for advice on how to reach your fundraising goals can be an excellent source of ideas, as well as invaluable insights that will help you make the right decision. Make sure to reach out beyond your group and networks so that you can gauge opinions from individuals with a wide array of different perspectives and experiences. With this broad base of information, you can make an educated, informed decision that will lead to a successful fundraiser and successful campaign!

When it comes to selecting the right fundraiser for your cause, there are several strategies and resources available that can help you make the best decision. From researching other successful fundraisers and their cost-effectiveness to leveraging technology to boost public engagement, there is no shortage of methods that can be used to maximize the results of your efforts. Taking the time to talk to colleagues and consider the cost of your fundraiser will ensure that you choose the perfect event for your cause. With a bit of preparation and resourcefulness, you can create an effective fundraising campaign that will have a significant impact on your organization!

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Pierre Poilievre is neither for nor against the Liberals' industrial strategy. Quite the opposite – The Globe and Mail

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Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre reads from last year’s budget as he rises during Question Period on March 29 in Ottawa.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

You would think that a politician as hard-hitting as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would have something clear to say about the big initiatives that the federal government outlined in its budget.

But somehow the Leader of the Opposition can’t tell us whether he opposes the biggest thing in the Liberal budget.

He can’t say whether he is in favour of a massive, government-subsidized industrial strategy.

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We’re not talking here about some baroque measure no one saw coming. We are talking about the largest feature in the government’s new fiscal blueprint.

In Tuesday’s budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined an enormous set of industrial subsidies for green technology that reduces emissions that will total $80-billion over the next decade.

This is an expenditure for industrial subsidies on a scale never before attempted in Canada. And we knew it was coming: The Liberal government signalled it was planning to respond to the huge subsidies in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Ms. Freeland budgeted more new money for those subsidies over the next decade than for health care.

Most of that money is supposed to be spent five to 10 years from now, when there could well be another party in power, possibly under Mr. Poilievre. Companies making investment decisions this year will want to know if a potential prime minister is dead set against the whole idea. Canadians should want to know too.

But on Wednesday, Mr. Poilievre was neither for nor against. Quite the opposite.

Asked whether he is in favour of the hefty investment tax credits for things such as carbon capture and hydrogen, Mr. Poilievre said his Conservatives have been in favour of carbon capture for a long time.

So that’s a yes? Well, no, not exactly.

He said his Conservatives would “study what’s in the budget and we’re going to come up with our own election platform.” Apparently it will be a year or two before we know if Mr. Poilievre thinks that a massive program launched in the 2023 budget is a good step or a colossal waste of money.

Mr. Poilievre responded to those questions by talking about the long delays for approving projects like mines – which is a legitimate point but not an answer to the question of subsidies.

And then for a moment, he made it sound like he thinks the subsidies are an outrage. “I have no doubt that Justin Trudeau will stuff the pockets of foreign multinationals,” he said. That’s pretty biting, except for the fact that we’re not sure whether Mr. Poilievre is in favour of all that pocket-stuffing.

Certainly, no one should expect that the Conservatives would release all their policies in the platform now.

And of course there’s plenty of waffling in politics. On Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau dodged questions of whether his government will ever balance the budget, to avoid admitting it never will. Mr. Poilievre refused to say whether the Conservative government would cancel a proposed dental plan.

But in this case the government of the day is launching a major subsidy program that will cost billions of dollars a year and is supposed to be the cornerstone of a decade-long industrial strategy, and key to climate-change policy, too.

The Official Opposition can’t take a pass on that for two years and claim that its mission is holding the government to account.

It can endorse the idea, but quibble over the details. Or it can oppose the very notion of pouring megabucks into subsidies.

It is evidently an uncomfortable issue for Mr. Poilievre. He has spent a lot of his time in politics railing against corporate handouts. He couldn’t help using that language on Wednesday.

But those subsidies also include a lot of money for carbon capture and storage in the oil patch that Alberta’s United Conservative Premier Danielle Smith wants. Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford will be keen on the incentives for electricity and battery plants.

Yet there’s no way around it. This is the time when the issue is being decided, if only because the Liberals have tabled the budget with hulking piles of cash devoted to it. That will set Canada’s industrial policy on a course that is supposed to endure for a decade. An opposition leader should be able to tell us if he’s against it.

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As Canadians miss out on benefits, Ottawa promises automatic tax filing is on the way – BNN Bloomberg

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The Canada Revenue Agency will pilot a new automatic system next year to help vulnerable Canadians who don’t file their taxes get their benefits.

This week’s federal budget says the Canada Revenue Agency will also present a plan in 2024 to expand the service, following consultations with stakeholders and community organizations. 

The move toward automatic tax filing, first promised in the 2020 speech from the throne, is one of several budget measures the Liberals say are meant to help Canadians with the cost of living.

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Experts and advocates have called for automatic filing, noting many vulnerable Canadians miss out on benefits to which they are entitled.

Canadians are generally not required to file tax returns every year unless they owe money, but the federal government is increasingly relying on the Canada Revenue Agency to deliver income-tested benefits to individuals.

That includes Canada Child Benefit, as well as the recent top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit and the temporary doubling of the GST tax credit.

A 2020 report co-authored by Jennifer Robson, an associate professor in political management at Carleton University, estimates 10 to 12 per cent of Canadians don’t file their taxes.

Although there were non-filers across all income groups, they were most heavily concentrated in lower income brackets.

The report estimated the value of benefits lost to working-age non-filers was $1.7 billion in 2015.

The federal budget also said the Canada Revenue Agency will expand access to a service set up in 2018 that allows some Canadians with lower or fixed incomes to auto-file simple returns over the telephone.

The budget says that two million Canadians will be eligible for that service, called “File My Return,” by 2025, which is nearly three times the number of people who can use it now.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 30, 2023.

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