Hurricane Simon reaches Category 4, 240 km/h winds

Hurricane Simon strengthened to a Category 4 storm on Saturday, Oct. 10, with sustained winds of about 240 km/h, and was forecast to reach or move just inland of Mexico’s west-central Pacific coast by Sunday, Oct. 11, near Puerto Vallarta, a popular Canadian winter destination.

Forecasters warned of up to 51 centimetres of rain across parts of southwestern Mexico, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides, and authorities asked residents of 24 municipalities in four states to stay home from 4 p.m. local time Saturday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Simon’s maximum sustained winds had risen to 150 mph, or about 241 km/h, which makes it a major hurricane, Al Jazeera reported. The centre was about 185 kilometres south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico’s largest Pacific port. The Rio Times, citing the forecast, put the central pressure at 933 millibars and said the NHC expected a peak of 155 mph on Saturday evening, just under the Category 5 threshold of 157 mph.

“This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” the hurricane centre said, according to The Associated Press. It also warned of dangerous storm surge near and east of where the centre makes landfall, with large, destructive waves. Totals of up to 30 inches, or 76 centimetres, are possible in parts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco.

A hurricane warning covers the Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta, including Manzanillo, and a tropical storm watch extends south toward Lázaro Cárdenas, Al Jazeera reported. Jalisco suspended classes in 22 coastal municipalities on Friday and Monday and began evacuating people from at-risk areas. It asked tourism businesses in Puerto Vallarta to make sure workers and visitors could reach shelters or safe locations.

Laura Velázquez Alzúa, head of Mexico’s National Civil Protection Coordination, said residents should not delay. “Do not wait for conditions to get worse to get to safety,” she said, according to the Rio Times. The Rio Times also reported that President Claudia Sheinbaum said the army and navy emergency plans had been activated.

Canadian visitors are in the storm’s path. Ed Currie, a Canadian tourist in Puerto Vallarta with his wife for five more days, told the AP the storm had not yet affected their plans. He said they would likely stay in their hotel and that he did not “know what to expect.”

Airlines have started to adjust. The Rio Times reported that Volaris cancelled flights on Oct. 10 and 11 at five airports, including Puerto Vallarta, Tepic and Colima, and that Aeroméxico is allowing date changes without fees on routes to Manzanillo, Colima and Puerto Vallarta for travel booked Oct. 9 to 11, if the new trip is made by Oct. 14. Canada News Media reported on Oct. 9 that WestJet had issued a tropical storm advisory covering Puerto Vallarta travel from Oct. 9 to 12.

The Government of Canada’s travel advice for Mexico is at “exercise a high degree of caution,” with regional advisories, and notes that the Pacific hurricane season runs from mid-May to the end of November, according to travel.gc.ca. The page said the Canadian consular agency in Puerto Vallarta covers the Jalisco coast, Colima and Nayarit. The page did not mention Simon when checked, and Canada News Media found no Canadian government statement on the storm.

Where exactly Simon makes landfall remains uncertain. The Rio Times said the Civil Protection Coordination expects it Sunday morning between La Huerta and Tomatlán in Jalisco, while some computer models, including the European ECMWF, keep the centre offshore longer. Forecast winds fall to about 145 km/h inland by Sunday evening, and the storm is expected to break up over high terrain by Tuesday.

A second system, Tropical Storm Rachel, is also under a tropical storm warning on the west coast of Baja California, the Rio Times reported. No casualty or damage totals from Simon had been confirmed in the reports reviewed. This story is developing and will be updated as official figures are released.

Via Al Jazeera, the Associated Press (as published by NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth) and The Rio Times.

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