Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula narrows as Brazil runoff nears

Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to between 0.6 and 2.2 points in two new polls, a week before Brazilians vote in the Oct. 25 presidential runoff, Reuters reported on Oct. 19.

The shrinking margin leaves a race that began the runoff phase with a Bolsonaro edge inside the polls’ margins of error. The first round on Oct. 4 had Bolsonaro, a senator, nearly two points ahead of Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.

A Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual, with fieldwork Oct. 16 to 18 among 2,002 people, put Bolsonaro at 46.5 per cent and Lula at 45.9 per cent, Reuters reported. That is 50.3 per cent to 49.7 per cent of valid votes, which exclude blank and undecided ballots. The margin of error is plus or minus two points. In Nexus’s Oct. 13 survey, Bolsonaro led 47.9 per cent to 45.1 per cent.

An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg, conducted Oct. 13 to 18 among 4,998 people, had Bolsonaro at 49.8 per cent and Lula at 47.6 per cent, with a margin of error of plus or minus one point, Reuters reported. Its Oct. 9 poll had Bolsonaro ahead 51.1 per cent to 45.7 per cent. Both surveys were largely completed by the time of the first runoff debate, so they do not show its effect.

The two candidates met on Sunday, Oct. 18, in São Paulo for their first runoff debate, which Al Jazeera described as fiery. Lula called Bolsonaro “a habitual liar” and a “thug,” and referred to him as a “militiaman,” alluding to alleged ties to Rio de Janeiro paramilitary groups, Agence France-Presse and Al Jazeera reported. Bolsonaro called Lula a “clown” and told him, “Brazil is going to retire you,” according to the same reports.

Lula also said it was “striking how the Bolsonaro family is subservient to American interests,” AFP reported. Bolsonaro has pledged to repair relations with Washington, while Lula has stressed sovereignty and trade diversification in response to U.S. tariffs, according to the Rio Times.

On the COVID-19 pandemic, Bolsonaro said the response “wasn’t an area where we saw the best results during Bolsonaro’s presidency. I’ll offer a mea culpa here,” Al Jazeera reported. He was referring to the government of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, and did not directly answer Lula’s questions about an investigation involving his father.

Al Jazeera also reported that Brazil’s federal police asked the Supreme Court to investigate Flávio Bolsonaro over a money-laundering accusation involving a lawyer close to him, and that he is already under investigation over links to former banker Daniel Vorcaro. Canada News Media could not confirm either item from a second source. Neither has led to charges, and the Bolsonaro campaign’s response was not included in the report.

Al Jazeera said a second debate is scheduled for Oct. 23. About 33 million voters, roughly one in five of those eligible, stayed home in the first round, and both camps are courting them. Prediction markets, which are bets by traders rather than polls, give Bolsonaro a much larger edge than the surveys do: Polymarket had him at 76.6 per cent late on Oct. 19, according to the Rio Times.

For Canadians, the result matters because Brazil leads the Mercosur side of trade talks with Canada. Foreign Minister Anita Anand has said she wants a deal concluded “ideally before the end of 2026.” Canada’s merchandise trade with the Mercosur bloc was $15.8 billion in 2024, according to Government of Canada figures cited by The Canadian Press. Our earlier coverage looks at how the runoff tests Canada’s Mercosur push, the Oct. 15 poll, the earlier lead in four runoff polls and the Senate’s 75-1 vote for a 40-hour work week.

Brazilians vote on Oct. 25, and a second debate is scheduled for Oct. 23, according to Al Jazeera.

Via Reuters, Agence France-Presse, Al Jazeera and the Rio Times.

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