How Blue Jays could approach trade deadline from murky middle

TORONTO — After an underwhelming start to the second half, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves on the fringes of the American League playoff race, 4.5 games out of the final wild-card spot.

According to FanGraphs, their odds of reaching the playoffs are 14 per cent, so there’s still a chance they’re traditional buyers ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. A well-timed win streak may be required, but it’s still possible. With that in mind, the Blue Jays are sure to monitor the markets for starting pitching, relievers and right-handed hitting outfielders just in case.

But buying is far from the only option on the table at this point. They could sell, something Ross Atkins has done on four previous occasions since becoming GM after the 2015 season. It’s an option we’ll be sure to explore here in the coming days if the losses keep piling up, but for now let’s explore the murky middle and look more closely at the types of trades the Blue Jays might make if their playoff positioning remains somewhat similar when it’s decision time in early August.

Looking beyond the traditional buyer-seller extremes, here are four possible approaches:

Just because there’s a trade deadline doesn’t mean you have to make trades. The Blue Jays could hold, trusting their players to rebound without dipping into their farm system for help.

Past Blue Jays examples: None.

Advantages: The core stays together for one last run.

Disadvantages: Other contenders will add and get better, so standing pat means taking a step back relative to the competition. Plus, there’s a considerable opportunity cost to holding onto pending free agents you might otherwise have traded.

Verdict: Regardless of their record, the Blue Jays have made at least three trades in each of their 10 years under Atkins. It would be a surprising departure to make zero trades. Tactically, this is too timid. It’s a bad idea.

Buy controllable starting pitching

If there’s one thing teams always need it’s controllable starting pitching. That’s especially true for a roster with four pending free agents in Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer. 

Past Blue Jays examples: Acquiring Francisco Liriano in 2016; acquiring Ross Stripling in 2020; acquiring Mitch White in 2022.

Advantages: Acquiring young pitching would not only help future teams and it might even give the 2026 team the jolt it needs, too. A buyer intent on winning in 2026 would likely prioritize proven pitchers, but if the Blue Jays are willing to broaden their search to those with higher risk profiles, the reward could be greater, too.

Disadvantages: The cost of controllable starting pitching is always high, so the Blue Jays would have to give up big-league players, prospects or both.

Verdict: Acquiring optionable pitchers who can throw strikes and miss bats is always a good thing, regardless of time of year. As always, it comes down to price, but if the Blue Jays can bolster their rotation for the present and future that’d be worthwhile.

This time of year leads to lots of conversation, and sometimes those talks allow teams to make need-for-need deals that balance out rosters. In a year where many teams have a shot at the playoffs, this genre of trade may be popular. For instance, the Mariners could trade from their starting pitching surplus for a right-handed bat or the Padres might part with some elite relief pitching to help their rotation.

Past Blue Jays examples: Acquiring Joaquin Benoit for Drew Storen in 2016; acquiring Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis for Rowdy Tellez in 2021; acquiring Brandon Valenzuela for Will Wagner in 2025.

Advantages: By dealing from an area of surplus, teams can bolster weaknesses. Case in point: do the Blue Jays really need Varsho, Yohendrick Pinango, Jesus Sanchez, Nathan Lukes and Sean Keys? Or is there a way to trade one of those left-handed hitters to address another area of need, like pitching?

Disadvantages: Sometimes teams overlook talent in their haste to sort out a so-called surplus. The Astros surely wish they’d never traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Blue Jays. And while there wasn’t a clear role for him in Toronto at the time, that’s how future all-star Otto Lopez ended up in Miami.

Verdict: Need-for-need trades can benefit all involved. There’s risk, but that can be mitigated by knowing your own personnel well. The Blue Jays would benefit from exploring these possibilities.

Take on bad money to get something valuable

As one of the biggest spenders in MLB, the Blue Jays can consider taking on ‘bad’ contracts as a means of getting other players they really covet.

Past Blue Jays examples: Acquiring Nori Aoki with Teoscar Hernandez for Francisco Liriano in 2017. 

Advantages: Being willing to take on bad money can open up doors to better players. In 2017, the Blue Jays took on Aoki, who’d be released within a month, to acquire Hernandez, who hit 129 home runs with the Blue Jays.

Disadvantages: Teams that spend $284 million or more in 2026 will have their highest selection in the 2027 amateur draft moved back 10 places unless they pick in the top six. As of now, that applies to the Blue Jays, who have an estimated CBT payroll of $319 million, according to FanGraphs. Beyond money, teams only have so many roster spots. That means there’s an additional cost to taking on players who don’t really fit.

Verdict: For the right addition this can work well. But with uncertainty looming over what spending restrictions will exist in the next collective bargaining agreement, it’s prudent to tread lightly here.