What to watch as Ottawa tables Budget 2026 today

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is to table the Carney government’s second federal budget in the House of Commons on Thursday afternoon, promising new investments in growth and sovereignty while opposition parties press for relief from high prices.

The budget carries the title “Maîtres chez nous,” or “masters of our destiny,” The Canadian Press reported. Champagne said on Wednesday that Canada needs to invest in growth, invest alongside businesses and invest in sovereignty, CBC News reported.

The deficit is the number to watch. The spring economic update put it at $75 billion for 2026-27. CBC reported that the figure could come in smaller because higher oil prices, driven largely by the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, have boosted federal revenues, although new spending on tariff-hit industries such as autos and steel pushes the other way. The parliamentary budget officer expects a deficit of about $63 billion this year and $70 billion next year.

Carney has changed how Ottawa reports its spending, splitting it into day-to-day operations and capital infrastructure. The government is expected to lay out a plan to balance the operating side by 2027-28, CBC reported. The budget is also expected to give more detail on the planned sale of some major airport operations, which could bring in cash for infrastructure or debt repayment, and on how individual investors could eventually buy into the Canada Growth Fund, a Crown-controlled fund that will take stakes in major projects.

The budget will also update the immigration levels plan for the next two years, as we reported earlier in our story on the levels plan. Ottawa has held back temporary migration to ease housing pressure. According to CBC, national average home prices are 22 per cent below their March 2022 peak and rents are about nine per cent below their May 2024 high.

Affordability is the political test. Statistics Canada data cited by CBC show average hourly wages up about 2.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, while consumer prices rose three per cent over the same period. By our calculation, wages trailed prices by about 0.7 percentage points. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates late last month to tame inflation, and food bank use has hit record highs this year, CBC reported.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said the budget’s “job one” should be saving Canadians money. He wants the pause on federal fuel taxes extended until next summer, the industrial carbon price and clean fuel standard scrapped, and spending cut. NDP Leader Avi Lewis said he asked for a wealth tax, a down payment on government-run grocery stores and new money for community housing and health care. Lewis proposed a one per cent tax on assets of $10 million or more, which he said could raise $40 billion a year.

Champagne, who visited a shoe factory in Montreal on Wednesday to get a new pair of shoes in keeping with budget tradition, said running deficits to support workers hurt by U.S. trade aggression is “the right thing to do.” He said the plan is meant to give Canada leverage at “any negotiating table” after the U.S. midterm elections.

The Liberals hold a majority, so the budget is expected to pass after weeks of debate in the House. Defence spending is another open question, as the government has poured tens of billions of dollars into the military to reach the old NATO two per cent benchmark and the alliance is now asking members for more. Earlier this week Champagne said the budget is about building, not the trade war, as we reported in our earlier story. Industry groups have also pressed Ottawa on the airport plan, as in our report on the airline group’s warning.

Sources: The Canadian Press and CBC News.

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